CheeselandSkies

Same.

But the important thing is, you suck it up and do it because it's the right thing to do at this moment in history. I don't know anybody who's exactly enamored with them.

Fair enough...again, better now than May!

More on the subject of NOAA's IT infrastructure issues: https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-national-weather-service-s-digital-infrastructure-i-1846584558

As more data comes in, the evidence is leaning more toward that not being the case. The CDC was and is urging caution because not much was known about this aspect. I wouldn't be surprised to see that guidance change soon, especially if more evidence continues to come in supporting efficacy against the major variants of concern.

Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system.

Seemed to be happening until like April 20th in 2018.

GFS continues to suggest decent thunderstorm chances for portions of the sub at times next week with 60s dews getting into southern WI/possibly far SE MN in the warm sector of a deep low over central/northern MN. Soundings look kind of muddled for severe/ potential, but at this range I'd be worried if they looked perfect now. 06Z run had an ugly eastern US stalled upper low/ Omega block developing later in the run, but that was waaaaaaaaay into fantasy range and even if it does happen, better now than May (or June).

The problem for me is, being from Wisconsin and of somewhat limited means, I need higher-ceiling, multi-day setups to take time off work and drive 15-20 hours out to the Southern/Western Plains (not that it was happening last year anyway with COVID). May 20, 2019 was a perfect example, although it ended up sucking anyway (got on the Mangum cell well before it produced, but got caught up in the traffic jam and couldn't see the tornado, and nothing about that day was photogenic in the slightest what with the stupid wildfire haze).

Pass.

Well, the above few posts from last year didn't exactly age well. It's still early season, at this point I'm just happy we're not locking into an extended winter-like pattern as we roll into April.

00Z GFS hints at some stormy mischief possible in the Plains and/or this sub mid-late next week with a deep cyclone and a broad moist sector across the central and eastern CONUS. It's still early season and it's barely inside of 200 hours, so that's about all that can be said at this point.

Hmmmm...not sure how I feel about that. On the one hand, I want no part of a return to a wintry pattern after the equinox and especially after the calendar flips to April. OTOH, an instant flip to a baking, summerlike ridge is no good either.

The general consensus from what I've seen is that the SA variant may be able to evade vaccines moreso than the others at least in terms of infections/mild-moderate illness, but there's still a marked reduction in severe illness (hospitalizations/deaths).

I-70 and south is getting it today.

At least part of that may be due to them replicating so fast that critical cases are once again overrunning ICU capacity in some areas that haven't fully recovered from earlier wave(s).

No, Euro is not a hi-res CAM. It also had its own issues with drastically over-amping yesterday/today's system within 24 hours. See discussion here:

That was really the one thing no one thought was gonna happen yesterday. All the discussion was over whether insufficient capping would allow for a destructively interfering convective mess. We still have much to learn, and much tweaking to do to the models.

Whatever happened to "The King"?

SVR lmao

Oddly quiescent for what should be peak tornado hours, once the second long-track monster dissipated. Just a few SVRs out across the South. ...too quiet.

Storms keep trying south of Jackson/west of I-59 but nothing has really taken root there so far. They had a lot of heating this morning though (relative to AL) and surface winds should back with time. Good chunk of eastern MS remains in the 15% hatched MDT risk.

Yep...

Almost in the same spot as where the next EF4 produced by the same supercell that spawned Tuscaloosa/Birmingham crossed into GA on 4/27/11, although it took a little different trajectory to get there. It also crossed AL-9 north of Piedmont very near Goshen UMC of Palm Sunday 1994 infamy.

Maybe it's too soon to say they dodged another one despite the trimming of the HIGH. That one north of Tylertown looks like trouble down the road. Of course, I said the same thing about the discrete cells popping in south-central MS last Wednesday and they just kind of died out.