CheeselandSkies

One interesting thing is; it seems that one concern going into this event based off some of the forecast discussions was that storm motion was expected to be quite fast (50 MPH or more). However, these supercells have only been moving 20-25 MPH according to the warning statements. Obviously a good thing from a public/chaser safety standpoint especially with it being after dark, but I'm curious as to the cause of the discrepancy. Usually in my experience, when forecast storm speeds bust, they bust low (storms move faster than anticipated).

Crazy RFD winds on Tom Pastrano's stream on KWTV. He was way too close to the path for in the dark.

This might be the most impressive tornado signature I've seen on Frederick radar since Elmer-Tipton 2015 (I wasn't really paying attention during Mangum 2019 since I was too busy trying not to rear-end the chaser in front of me).

Surprised no reports/TORR-type warnings with the way that couplet looked earlier, has to be a horde of chasers on it so if anything happened it would have been seen. *TOR warning dropped, there's another one in far NE CO but the storm is linear. Going to go right over Clinton, where I sat for a few hours on the afternoon of 5/27 (a miserable bust). *Edit: New TOR warning near Sharon Springs, KS. Also linear but looks like it has potential. *Edit 2: Ninja'd by @OhioWX

Of course we'll see how it unfolds, but where was this in western Kansas on 5/26?

Rinse/repeat yesterday, tomorrow?

System almost looks like a TC on satellite. Clearing is confined to a narrow corridor E-W, but storms should be moving almost due northward. Clearing starting to nose into areas near/east of Keokuk, IA. Edit: 15Z HRRR has the mother lode tracking through eastern Lee/western DeKalb Counties (IL) around 20Z. Confirms my hunch attm that Rochelle is as good a jumping off point as any.

There was a tornado warning up in the arrowhead of MN too, before the OK event even initiated.

I'll be staying local, although latest HRRR is less than encouraging for S. WI. May head down to roughly I-88 corridor/Rochelle and hang out. Worked for me on 8/9, shoulda done it on 4/9/15.

Couplet hasn't looked super tight yet.

Based on wind profiles in forecast soundings and associated CAM output, if chasing tomorrow be prepared for cells to be moving northward or perhaps even NNW. Not something one usually looks for unless a TC is involved.

New tornado warning covers an awful lot of real estate. Storm speed increasing with each warning statement. Edit: Dot of enhanced reflectivity at the tip of the hook in the 2319Z KFDR scan. Not sure if it's a legit debris ball, though. CC is inconclusive. Edit #2: Gone on next scan.

75 dbz reflectivity in the core of that tor-warned cell in OK. Don't see that too often.

May is overrated, Aug./Oct. are where it's at.

Looking at the models yesterday, the instability/EHI values weren't too impressive anywhere except Michigan.

He has a bit of a reputation among enthusiasts/chasers for being overly bullish on severe/particularly tornado potential compared to what actually ends up happening, especially at longer ranges. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Global models suggest a period of western troughing coming up that would be gorgeous in May...as it is might still see some "second season" severe weather events in the central CONUS as per the 4-8 although mode/potential chase quality TBD.

Oh no he di-n't! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

With all the talk about how active/favorable it was supposed to be, the lack of a >40 ACE (landfalls or no) Sam/Irma/Ivan-quality system that had us waking up to a gorgeous stadium eye for days on end really stood out like a sore thumb in September 2020. Teddy tried but couldn't quite get on that level. For a while it looked like 2021 was going to go the same route with the very similar Larry being the best the MDR/CV could muster until Sam came in late to save the day.

If you've read the last three Day 4-8 outlooks, you can tell Broyles is champing at the bit to add a threat area for sometime over this coming weekend. The other forecasters had to take away his crayons.

That 500mb height pattern would be gorgeous in May. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

...and that's not even a happy hour run!

La Nina, brah. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) this pattern isn't already in place, with Sam churning across the Atlantic.