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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Moderate risk for TX incoming.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Houston area got several significant tornadoes (including an F4 and an F3 each with a path length of at least 30 miles) early on in the multi-day outbreak of November 1992.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    SPC mentioned that as a possible limiting factor in their discussion at 13Z. Probably why they haven't gone 15% hatched MDT for tornadoes yet, given how ominous some of the HRRR sim ref/UH maps have been.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Latest NAM gets us up to 68 Monday in the warm sector of a surface low near the Twin Cities. Seems like there ought to be some storms/severe weather chances with a pattern like that, but dewpoints are in the low 40s. Going to have to armchair chase Texas.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    The modeled environments looked pretty ominous at one point (at least on the GFS, and it was pretty consistent with that for quite a few runs) but have downtrended a bit as the event gets closer and I wouldn't say support a high risk type setup at this juncture. Not to say they couldn't trend back in the other direction.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Been so focused on the forecasts for the nice weather yesterday and the wintry mix/potential snow for tomorrow, I completely forgot it was supposed to rain today.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    From MKX: Love it. This is spring. Not this dry and boring crap we have had most of the last few years.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    As noted many times, GFS has sucked all winter especially with southern stream snow threats, but I thought it did pretty well over quite a long lead time with the general timing and placement of the March 5th severe event as well as the one coming up for this Friday (although obviously not good for crucial details like 0-3KM cape that are critical for event magnitude). Of course, I wasn't really comparing it to the Euro or other models, so it's possible they did equally well, or better.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe just me, but I'd call the day the EF4 hits the "Sayonara, winter" day...
  10. CheeselandSkies
    I think I heard this story once before, although the date on the article is current. So did Casey just abandon it on some random Kansas farm and the owner didn't notice for 10 years?
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Early March slight risk in Iowa with $4 gas and we get a conga line... maybe I'll sit this year out after all. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Gettin' salty in here. Somebody was overzealous treating the roads...as usual.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    You'd think one of these years I'd learn to throw climo out the window and just pay attention to the damn 3km CAPE map. Even so, sounds like it was a tough chase for most and with few exceptions, the best/clearest footage of the tornadoes came from local yahoos who had way too close calls.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Yesterday/last night was the desperately needed salt-washer that we never really got all of March and April last year. Problem is, it's going to snow again.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Strong tornadoes to 4" of snow in less than 60 hours...welcome to March.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Seven, there was one fatality in the Chariton tornado as well.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Six fatalities in Winterset tornado and one in Chariton per WHO-13.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Not under a warning, but quite gusty here as the line moves in. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Nice downpour ongoing here, first thunder of the year for me since I missed hearing it during that "thundersleet" a few weeks ago. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  20. CheeselandSkies
    01Z SPC outlook expanded the enhanced risk for wind into more of far SW/SC WI as well as NW/NC IL. The long-lived tornadic cell already appears to be shrinking/disorganizing a little bit due to sunset. The MS River can act as a brick wall for severe convection even into late May, so we'll see.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Right?! Apparently I still haven't learned that they produce way better than May/June nowadays.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    related posts go here: After today, looks seasonable through Wednesday after which highs drop into the 20s through the following weekend, although not dramatically/excessively cold air as depicted on some model runs (as usual).
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Ugh. Really thought there were some kinematic issues too (unidirectional winds above 850mb) that would prevent long-lived supercellular mode. If not for that I would have gone.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Fine time for GR Level 3 to stop updating the radar data.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Atmosphere making me eat my words today. Edit @Chicago Stormbeat me to it.
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