CheeselandSkies

Up to 5% tor at the 13Z. This strong FROPA was on my radar (so to speak) at longer ranges but I admit I kind of tuned it out once it got into Day 4-8 range and SPC said the strongest winds aloft and support for ascent would lag behind the warm sector. I haven't looked at any models myself yet so I can't say if that's changed in some fashion or if they're just hedging their bets.

Surprise slight risk cropped up this morning, although I don't have high expectations for it.

Too bad it's going to be a closed low with the strong flow aloft lagging the warm sector (per SPC).

1995-96 and then again '98-'99 were really the only years like that. Up through 1994 were inactive years save the lone standout cyclones in certain years (Bob, Andrew). 1995 also didn't really have any significant U.S. landfall threats from Cape Verde hurricanes, with Luis and Marilyn striking the LAs before recurving and only home-grown Opal making U.S. landfall at 100kt+. 1996 had Bertha, Edouard, Fran and Hortense. 1997 was quiet, 1998 had Bonnie, Danielle and Georges, as well as quick recurvers Ivan and Jeanne (the second-to-last use of those names!), the infamous Mitch being a Caribbean brew. 1999 had Cindy, Floyd and Gert.

Well this season may not be playing out exactly like us weenies had anticipated, but just like last season, just about everything is making landfall, most of it in the CONUS.

Fine. Excessive speed far beyond the limits of what the road was designed for.

Excessive speed sounds reckless to me.

09/0Z GFS holds serve, although soundings aren't that impressive the synoptic pieces are there with a surface low near the WI/IA/IL confluence at 21Z Monday afternoon and a belt of spring-like 40-50kt WSW-SW flow at 500mb. Edit: On the 06Z, the area of most interest is moved north into WI, beautiful shear profile along the warm front but the capping looks stout at 21Z.

Regarding next Monday, 18Z GFS took a big nosedive with verbatim regional severe potential vs. 12Z, but the pieces are there. It's just a question of will they come together and where? Edit: For reference, a 12Z forecast sounding for a point not far from the 8/9 tornadofest, if not a tad further east/uncomfortably close to the Chicago 'burbs.

Looking ahead... August decided to act like May for us, so Sept. gonna act like June? I'm all for it.

Will anyone remember Larry except hardcore wx weenies? Doubtful.

Watch issued for SC/SE WI including Dane County...which the line was already most of the way through at the time. Rather ominous shelf cloud and some CG lightning came through here just before 11:00.

Upper Midwest in general finally got in its first "tornadoes for all who want them" pattern in quite a few years from the latter half of July through about the first third of August. Even I and @Malacka11 managed to cash in a little bit. Still have things to kick myself for on each chase, but at least there WERE chases.

Do they just stop paying attention after the summer solstice?

Seems like this kind of thing only happens in WI on the low-key outlook days. Enhanced/moderate risk with hatched area for hail and we don't see this. That said, it seems the upper Midwest in general rarely gets really large hail events, even with our tornadic supercells (not like in the way that the Plains does). Which is fine with me, since I'm not looking to lose my windshield on a chase.

Pretty solid model agreement that the core should miss Bermuda to the east, seems the westward shifts from early on have stopped/even reversed a bit. Good chance they get TS-force winds out of the north as it passes by, though.

He'll be alright.

We gonna west shift all the way to Texas?

September is an odd time for severe weather events in this region, but with the way August overachieved compared to May and June I suppose anything is possible at this point. Hell just within the last five years we've had tornado outbreaks in December and February.

What looked from video like a fairly large tornado occurred in New Jersey associated with Ida's remnant low.

I'm good with that as long as it's not a whole season.

Nice respite after the wonderfully stormy (regionally speaking) but often warm/oppressively humid August.

That's more of a dry slot than a proper eye, but this has great outflow structure and no vertical stacking issues early on unlike most of the earlier-season systems. This cyclone is going places, especially as it gets into warmer waters further west and even northwest.

Sure it is. They report 135kt/155 MPH easily (was Michael's operational landfall intensity). 55, 95 and 135 MPH are the ones you won't see because there's no conversion from knots that rounds to 5. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk