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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    GFS bouncing around as usual at this range but some runs bring some pretty big CAPE values well up into the sub mid-next week.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like a snow globe out there. More of this in December, less in April, please.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Looks -y. One thing I've learned over the past few years, La Nina alone isn't enough. Gotta stop putting off that pre-chase season work on my car. 3/5 caught me unprepared.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Winds howling out there tonight. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Hope we in the NW sub can get into some of that severe action, too. It's always annoying when we get a significant event way earlier in the season than seems right at this latitude (Winterset day) and then get plunged back into winter with nothing else of note until late May or June. If we can get sufficient Gulf juice for an EF4 up here on March 5th, we can jolly well do it on April 15th.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    I wonder if there's a little more heating today vs. initial forecast thinking over the past few days. Probably not enough to make a huge difference but could contribute to a higher impact event or two.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Seems there was already some pretty significant (probable) tornado damage in Springdale, AR.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Derechos come in two major forms, progressive and serial. You're probably thinking of a progressive derecho, which tend to consist of a single large (but usually somewhat more compact vs. a serial derecho) bow echo with an intense rear inflow jet and often a mesolow/wake low. A serial derecho is associated with a long, narrow squall line (several hundred miles N-S, say from the MS/OH River confluence down to the Gulf Coast) with multiple small bow echos/line-echo wave pattern signatures, and embedded mesovortices and/or supercells. Today's event is expected to be closer to the serial type.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    I suppose if they think the threat of EF2+ QLCS tornadoes is great enough, they could go with a PDS tornado watch (would have verified on 12/15, lol) but it's unlikely IMO. They also seem to be thinking there could be a somewhat greater tornado threat with the later storms further south; they could decide that could warrant a PDS by virtue of its timing.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    It depends on how things evolve tomorrow, but I'm thinking the threat of QLCS tornadoes will be substantial enough with the forecasted low-level wind profiles that they'll go with tornado watches.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    I think I've yet to see a high risk solely for wind actually verify, in the sense of producing an outcome so exceptional and impactful that it seemed worthy of such an unusual forecast. The only ones that would meet that criteria IMO are the May 30-31, 1998 Great Lakes derecho and the August 2020 Iowa derecho; both of which maxed out at Moderate for the derecho itself (5/31/98 got a high risk in parts of NY/PA for tornadoes later in the day, after the initial derecho had weakened). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  12. CheeselandSkies
    As I posted in Central/Western regarding next Wednesday, when we may (at least briefly) get into the warm sector of an intense surface low ahead of another one of those excessively amplified, meridional flow troughs: 00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out. This trough appears to have some of the same issues as the last one, mainly very meridional (SSW to even southerly or SSE) 500mb flow which is parallel to the initiating boundary (cold front) which often makes for a messy convective mode in which it's hard to get long-lived, discrete tornadic supercells. That said, there will probably be significant severe weather somewhere as with the last system.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Much needed...hope it verifies. As bad as the western drought is, the further east it extends is even worse for chaseable weather.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Well obviously a vastly different type of damage, so it's hard to make a fair comparison. Katrina submerged the whole neighborhood in water for days on end, so all the houses were still standing but filled with mold and uninhabitable. Tornado levels everything in a small area.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRIMES...CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES... At 932 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Madisonville, moving northeast at 40 mph.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    If somebody ever resurrects the "Tornado Video Classics" video series (although there's so much footage taken now, it'd be a beast to sort out the best), this needs to be in it. Reminds of one that was in one of the original installments, taken from a helicopter as a multi-vortex tornado ripped trees out of the ground and hurled them through the air.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    KGRK not destroyed per photo relayed on twitter by @andyhb, but data not accessible.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Saw my first robin(s, 2 actually) of spring 2022 today. A couple weeks earlier than some recent years.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Moderate risk for TX incoming.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Houston area got several significant tornadoes (including an F4 and an F3 each with a path length of at least 30 miles) early on in the multi-day outbreak of November 1992.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    SPC mentioned that as a possible limiting factor in their discussion at 13Z. Probably why they haven't gone 15% hatched MDT for tornadoes yet, given how ominous some of the HRRR sim ref/UH maps have been.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Latest NAM gets us up to 68 Monday in the warm sector of a surface low near the Twin Cities. Seems like there ought to be some storms/severe weather chances with a pattern like that, but dewpoints are in the low 40s. Going to have to armchair chase Texas.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    The modeled environments looked pretty ominous at one point (at least on the GFS, and it was pretty consistent with that for quite a few runs) but have downtrended a bit as the event gets closer and I wouldn't say support a high risk type setup at this juncture. Not to say they couldn't trend back in the other direction.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Been so focused on the forecasts for the nice weather yesterday and the wintry mix/potential snow for tomorrow, I completely forgot it was supposed to rain today.
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