CheeselandSkies

Had to scrape frost off my car windows before going into work this morning. I thought we were in a torch?

I have a T-shirt I got from the cannon at a Milwaukee Bucks game, has the team logo on the front and the Gruber logo and "One call, that's all!" slogan on the back.

Well 2012 was a lousy severe weather season because it never rained, let alone stormed, from about March through sometime in September. I think there were only four tornadoes in Wisconsin all year. Since then I became a firm believer that we need to have a snowback to melt off in the spring in order to not set the table for a drought.

Had something like that in 2009. Cutoff upper low parked over the OH Valley and refused to move or dissipate for what felt like at least 3 weeks.

WaPo with the twofer in this headline: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/04/california-bomb-cyclone-atmosheric-river/

Not just in WI, but the Plains and Midwest in general (although northern IL did have an active streak particularly from 2015-'16). Granted I could have seen several tornadoes in the last couple years if not for boneheaded decisions at the last minute for which I have only myself to blame, but it would be nice to have more than 2-4 legit opportunities (that don't immediately go to linear or clustery crap like 5/30 and 6/15/22) per season. Seems the only quality events are the sneaky and/or out-of-season ones, like yesterday in central IL.

A lot like wasting most of April-June with a chilly eastern trough, a giant death ridge, weak split flow, or similar such patterns that are blatantly hostile to severe weather in the central US.

Early Jan. 2021 was when we had something like four straight days of freezing fog creating rime ice on everything. They're still the most recent photos in my winter wx Flickr album.

At least one more, somewhat more substantial and photogenic tornado has occurred in central Illinois.

Brief, skinny tornado reported/photographed with this just south of the ILX radar site.

Jelly...

I consider anything the climate science-denying Bustardi spews into Rancid Musk's Twatterverse to be of entertainment value only.

More ice than I expected in the Madison area (forecasts had it more northwest of here in Sauk/Juneau/Adams/Monroe Counties) with tonight's freezing rain, had to chip off my car a bit although fortunately it was not solidly frozen and didn't require too much effort.

That would be Jonesboro, Louisiana. Cell moving up towards the I-20 corridor.

Baby steps... but general thunder line was expanded to include much more of the sub on the updated Day 2 outlook. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Was not expecting THIS during this "torch"... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Caveat to the above: As it gets into NAM range, the model is slowing things down a bit and showing the front coming through IN/southern LM/western OH closer to peak heating Tuesday, with a modest amount of CAPE within that large area of upper 50s dewpoints out ahead of it. Even has a little bit of moisture being pulled back into the triple point along the WI/IL border. Don't have high expectations at the moment, but something for us severe trackers to keep an eye on.

From the current model projections of very paltry CAPE despite quite high dewpoints for the season, it's hard to see early next week's event threatening much of this sub; but IIRC it took them until pretty late in the game to pick up on the northern extent of days like 2/28/17 or 12/10/21, as well.

SPC has maintained a pretty large 15% zone valid for Monday 1/2 for the last two outlooks. They haven't seen enough model consistency/agreement for anything further. Reminder that this thread is for those of us who want to discuss convective weather/threats. There are other threads to complain about lack of sufficiently wintry conditions/lament snow opportunities lost. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

CA desperately needs precip, so of course it will come all at once. Thanks, atmosphere! Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

The old climatology adage "averages are merely a mean of extremes" seems to get truer every year. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

May not be wintry to some people's liking but it won't be quiet.

So is the upcoming torch the elephant in the room that no one's going to talk about? I can see some concerns for flooding assuming streams/reservoirs/ponds etc got hard frozen over the last few days; then snow melt (in those areas that actually have a substantial amount on the ground) combined with rain upcoming.

Village of Cassville, WI (Far SW corner of the state, on the MS River) live webcam:

Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Wednesday Night A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. CAD life...