Cobalt

At the very least it seems like we're going to get a decent feed of moisture coming through our area next week, snow, ice, or otherwise. Fun times ahead!

Thanks @MillvilleWx and @HighStakes I appreciate it a lot. A lot of it is due to excellent posters such as yourselves. I've learned a lot in just the past year alone, and it feels like the field of knowledge in meteorology is virtually endless (which is a good thing, of course!) Anywho, the EPS looks like it moved to what the OP was suggesting, but as I felt it would be, it's not as extreme, and looks similar to the GEFS in how the PV lobe is consolidated and also how it's located. Seems like that location strikes the perfect balance because that's an absolute firehose of precipitation trailing up with the overrunning. The PV is also right on it's heels, so anything that falls would stay around. In fact the mean trended colder for that period around 180hrs onwards, so probably some absolutely frigid members in there following the overrunning event.

The GEFS looks a lot better in that regard, in fact it improved compared to 6z. Hoping Euro jumped to one extreme and that the EPS isn't directly in that camp, but even with it's attempts to pump up a massive ridge the output was still pretty wild. Last time we were in a overrunning scenario like this I recall a lot of concern of energy being dumped into the western US but we ended up with suppression depression, doesn't seem like this will go that way though.

Canadian looks to be a pretty substantial hit FWIW

GEFS is in that camp it seems. For the past 2-3 runs it's wanted to hold onto the PV being a fair bit west and pumping up the ridge to the east. Even then it's not as extreme as the op, and quite frankly a blend between the GEFS and the EPS would look pretty sweet wrt the overrunning event. GEFS is on the wet/warmer end (still some nice hits in there), EPS is on the colder and drier side.

Remember that there's 2 NAMs and follow Bob Chill's rule about the best model to follow in times like these but yeah that relaxation to the SE can stop for sure lol. I'll hug the 3k/Ukie/EPS combo for now ig

Day 3-7, February 7 threat, Day 7+. Lot of sevens, I don't blame him.

Uh.. for a day 7 signal.. woof

Wasn't that 2017? I just remember it coinciding with the Arctic blast and also my weenie self coming off of willing that December 9 storm northwest (and continuously posting those absurd GFS outptus)

Not sure about that, check out the 1hr snowfall rates lol. Also the 3k pushes the 850 boundary even farther north, honestly was looking like it was gonna get close to mixing, but not sure we could complain after 1-2"/hr rates for 3+ hours and then thumping sleet lol. PSU mentioned this in the 3-7 day chat but this feels similar to Feb 17 2018.. marginal temps surrounding the event and it looked super good for us at the day 3-4 range (but it jogged on North and we got lucky with good rates for a bit). Although all guidance considered we're probably in a good spot, still some misses to balance out the NW solutions

Luckily it seems like the Euro is certainly the slowest out of the models showing a hit. Will have to see if the progression speeds up since that certainly detriments the snow totals for the metro in the run.

Euro is actually somewhat slower than the NAM FWIW. It's just by like 6-12hrs, but obviously given the temp constraints it's huge since it has mod/heavy snow falling near noon compared to when the NAM has it.

CMC is a bit NW too. Seems like the bleeding southeast has eased a bit, but at least we're not out of the game based on guidance being somewhat close.

Ukie is a decent hit, super thin 3-6" stripe just like what the Euro drops on us. Really similar solution in fact.

Improved cluster! Seems like the GEFS is in the ICON/Euro/EPS camp. Canadian politely declined joining for the 0z suite, not without apologizing of course.

GEFS looks quite improved for the weekend threat. Almost in line with the EPS in both precip and snow mean. Waiting for additional panels to come out such as lp locations.

To hit our region? Maybe Feb 12-14 2014?? At least I think but it couldve been hybrid.

That's what I was thinking. Certainly not frigid for us but there's still cold air to tap, basically right nearby. Of course we'd be playing with fire, but it could boast well.

1.5" on the board as of 10:15am to put the storm total at 5.1" here in McLean!! Despite the big dog potential on this storm, for a Miller B (hybrid?) it's been pretty exceptional. Not often can you have snow falling for 3 days constantly re-whitening surfaces off and on like this. Still light snow now so hopefully that total can be added on to a bit, but this 2nd half of the storm has certainly exceeded my expectations

Uhh yeah, mhm. Basically my first 2,000 posts were all me being a 14 year old weather weenie. On this board I made the worst impression I could've conceivably made. I can see why you guys are harsh to newbies who don't know their place, because even if that caused sidetracks from the main issue at hand (I recall having a multi-post sequence in regards to speculation about me being possibly being conceived in the Feb 2003 blizzard which was... un unpleasant thread to say the least), in the end the harshness helped big time. It denounced the weenie-posting side of me but at the same time encouraged me to learn more from the more respected members of the forum. I'm still not an exceptional poster in the slightest, but those nudges in the right direction certainly strayed me off of a path of being 5-posted, and for that I'm grateful. Everyone's gotta start somewhere in this field, and while most people start off rocky, this place is an exceptional way for people to get their footing in the world of meteorology. It's not the one month members weenie posting that concerns me, it's the people who know exactly what they're posting and do it anyways with no regard to the discussion that they're disrupting.

.5" since midnight. 4.1" on the storm, and despite the WAA fail it's still been a pretty great event considering everything. Hoping to get close to verifying the WSW with snow showers through today.

12z had that feature too. Not really sure how that doesn't impede the storm but it's still an interesting solution, but yeah how can a 999 lp near Ohio and a 985lp off the coast of NJ both strengthen like that at the same time? :p

Euro's Sunday storm doesn't have the trough digging as much as it did for the massive 12z storm, but still gets the job done. 0z GEFS also backed off of the Euro idea with a flatter and more broad trough (product of less ridging out west to my novice eyes?), but still has the window there. Will be interesting if the EPS bleeds to the GEFS solution, but obviously we're still way at range. Euro's solution is still pretty fun to see still lol

Went on a Jebwalk and it surprisingly snowed decently the entire time. Came back to see how that band has basically pivoted over us, super nice.