Cobalt

Whenever my oceanography professor mentions something related to cold/snow in our area, he prefaces it by saying "if we ever have a winter again". I feel like he'd be a perfect fit in this subforum.

None of my response was related to current warming being questioned. People like Chesco can mold the data like it's play-doh to negate the warming, but that's a different discussion for a different day. It was you equating modern day "warming hype" to that of the supposed 1970s "cooling hype". As you pointed out (after my message), you remembered seeing information suggesting "the earth is gonna freeze", and used it to suggest global climate prediction and discussion is heavily faulty, or at least was back in the time of those reports. I chimed in to say that it was never the consensus, even back then. The idea that it was somehow a consensus viewpoint back in the 1970s is being weaponized by people who question the warming to this day. If you agree with your original idea, that it's nonsense to question modern day warming, you can then agree on that connection (70s cooling idea to modern warming being faulty) being a bad faith argument. Therefore, I think it's nonsense to equate a complete non-consensus back then to anything connected to the climate discussion today. Plain and simple. A quick edit after the fact, I see the discussion has moved on, and I don't mean to make this discussion drag on longer than it needs to. This response was simply for closure.

This is a silly comparison to make. Publications concerning the idea of "global cooling" were a fraction compared to the research that suggested warming, even in the 70s. The only "hype" about publications on global cooling comes from deniers who benefit from amplifying the idea of doubt or uncertainty. Even ExxonMobil produced research back in the 70s suggesting the Earth was warming, and their predictive skill on the matter was surprisingly accurate. Much better than that of deniers that have been suggesting for decades that the warming would halt. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-analysis-finds-exxonmobil-internal-research-accurately-predicted-climate-change/

Sorry to bother, but it doesn't look like Twitter (or X I guess is what it's called now) links embed to AmWx anymore, so they're not viewable. Can you summarize the tweets you're sharing? In your own words preferably.

Ridiculous UHI effect up in Albany

That's because JB posted the control run, the operational CFSv2 currently only runs through November.

he has correctly predicted 38 of the last 20 warm winters after all.

1/26/11 was the the first one I can remember "tracking", being glued to TWC coverage, cycling back from the TV to the window, waiting for a changeover. It must've happened in an instant, going from pouring rain to a near whiteout, by far the highest impact for a single-digit snowfall I have ever seen. 8 inches of heavy wet snow that caused a 3 day power outage (nearly as long as Feb 2010's snow blitz), and a prolonged snowpack after. Those high impact rain to snow events (1/3/22 is in the same realm as that one) have always been a favorite of mine. There's just something about a dreary environment transforming into a powder keg at a moment's notice. Most memorable stretch of winter has to be Feb-March 2015. Nearly every flavor of snow event, and some historic cold that we might never see again.

This recent 2 month stretch marks the first time DCA has had consecutive BN months since April/May 2020. Coldest 5/1 -> 6/30 (69.3F) since 2005 (68.7F). Nowhere near 2003's average for that timeframe of 66.4F, which stands as the coldest May/June period in DCA's history and coldest at any official DC site since 1927.

I remember reading that some areas in Siberia were the coldest since 2002. Maybe next year we'll get our 2003? In any case I'll remain hesitant about an El Nino being the remedy we need. The 06-07 and 94-95 style Ninos still lurk, but it's definitely a step up for our chances.

?

I think that was the March 17 2014 system. This is likely what PSU and Heisy are referring to. Potent Arctic airmass helped aid in the system's snowy characteristic despite being anafrontal. 4.8" DCA, 6.2" BWI, 9.5" IAD That airmass also set a few records in the wake of the storm, where IAD fell to 6 degrees on the morning of the 6th and 2 degrees on the 7th.

17-18 and 18-19 had a couple of these, but considering that those are the only examples since pre 15-16, it doesn't bode well. The only consolation of all of this is what I mentioned a while back in your thread where -EPO/+PNA driven patterns seem to be snowier than they used to be before. Like how people assumed 13-14 was an uber lucky fluke given that predominant pattern but then Jan-March 2015 happened. It'll never make up for the snowfall deficit from lost margins on our more typical patterns, but it's the very least of note for when we're dealt those patterns (which given our incoming -PDO might not be that helpful.. although I did read that the current-PDO regime might've started in the 2000s? Hopefully that's the case.)

850s for DC and NW actually never go below 0, but it doesn't matter if the thermals are torched. Crazy how we've gone through the November-March timeframe dealing with mid 30s rainstorms

no tic tac toe ridge.. game on

GEFS changes reflect OP for wave 1. stronger h5 low, more ridging out West, and a slightly stronger 50/50 low.

Most of our cold snaps nowadays seem to stem from a string of rainy and cloudy days that disproportionately skew high temps lower, so something like that is pretty impressive. If only that cold was there during the Dec-Feb timeframe

The first 2 weeks of that month were the 8th coldest on record at the DC site. Far and away the coldest in the 2000s, and coldest since at least the 1940s. The following 2 weeks chipped away at that cold start though, resulting in May 2020 as a whole being the 42nd coldest at DCA (63.8F). May 2003 was the coldest such month in recent memory, averaging 61.7F and being the 12th coldest on record.

To help put things into perspective

That output is kind of ridiculous for South Dakota.. areas in the Western part of the state snow from hr90 to hr 234 without much of a break lol. Wild solution

But at least if the 582dm line makes its way to our latitude then that surfer guy you were talking about is still in play for us?

At the same time the GFS depicts a stronger block and 50/50 signature. Might not be enough to offset it but this is a ridiculous look, major-PNA or not.. but seasonal trends look to be a bit stingy.

Preferably blue on the radar w/ an AmWX storm OBS thread updating at 1 page per minute. We can dream..