RDRY
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Everything posted by RDRY
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NAM looking better. That trailing energy really has some pop to it.
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The 0z Euro didn't even have a storm on the 23rd. Is the one on 12z the same weak system that precludes the inland runner on 0z?
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Maybe the earlier, consolidated low on the 12z Euro stands a better chance of getting offshore? Because the 0z follow-up storm on the 25th was an inland-running disaster.
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GFS not budging. Meh rainstorm. Even the follow-up wave is warmer.
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Nostalgia storms -- the last refuge of the skunked.
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If this doesn't work, just:
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A brush or possibly more for the coast, then a colder storm next week. Thinks just got ... interestinger.
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Operational runs be like "what pattern change?"
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Another storm that shifts way west as it gets within a week. Persistence FTW.
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Just caught a mosquito in my apartment. In January.
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The off-run GMS strikes again. Broad trough. No dice.
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So the follow-up system now appears to be real. But without a decent high, even western NE will have issues.
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I see ulterior motives for this policy, which seems bluntly obvious with the anti-nuclear position. What gets conveniently ignored by our media is the dramatic curbing of emissions in the U.S. since around 2007 from natural gas exploration (fracking). That's a success story that should be highlighted, but doesn't fit the alarmist narrative.
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Unfortunately, our climate policy is comically contradictory. Severe fossil fuel restrictions in the western hemisphere that have already crippled economies like Germany, with zero restrictions for major polluters like China and India. Leading to a net worsening of emissions.
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Is that a tropical system barreling toward North Carolina at 210 hours on the GFS?
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Trailing wave pops -- and quickly exits -- on the GFS. But at least it's there now.
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Quite the follow-up coastal on the Euro. Rabbit out of a hat?
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Maybe it's more a case of the models simply unable to forecast the teleconnectors even a couple weeks out. How many winters do we see the ensembles suggest a pattern change two weeks out, only to have the teleconnectors ultimately not budging from the persistent pattern?
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I don't understand the teleconnections nearly as well as most on here, but shouldn't they have been mostly awful for northeast cold and snow for most of December and now seemingly most or all of January? Otherwise, they seem to be essentially useless as forecasting tools.
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Track is not nearly as important as confluence and cold air feed. Without them, benchmark won't get it done for almost anyone. Weird for prime climo.
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Northeast ski resorts have to be in full-on panic mode now. They can't operate in this pattern.
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What an oddball storm, at least as depicted. Double-barrel lows. Extreme long-duration precip. Of what, who the hell knows.
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There may be little to no actual science behind persistence, but it sure as hell can be a powerful forecasting tool.
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High pressure ... epic storm. No high pressure ... persistence.
