RDRY

Looks like it's pulled from the GFS. 2-6 for the Berks -- ouch!!

Indeed. But it looks like the GFS surface is not quite in sync with its upper levels.

GFS is a stubborn SOB. Takes its sweet time getting there.

Too bad the surface low isn't placed on that closed contour to its west.

Southwest energy held back a bit more on this EURO run. Could be trouble.

Classic GFS -- getting there in increments.

Not as good as 6z with the southern energy, but certainly better than 12z. Actually, at 96 hours, this looks almost exactly the same as yesterday's 0z.

Dr. No

All that energy getting dumped into a pretty confined space.

Reality being the very next model run.

Looks like it stayed snow in most of western Mass. EURO > NAM. The 6z NAM wrong right up to game time.

Ski resorts clean up -- they needed it. But the long range offers hope for everyone. Big-time coastal pattern.

Looks like you'll do well. This is a real cold air mass, despite it retreating.

The forecast for the Berks is now close to a foot. I should have made the trip. Stupid NAM!

So the 32K NAM is mostly rain where the 12K is mostly snow.

Is the EURO performing worse overall after its update?

EURO was a smidge colder in western MA during the heart of the event. There looks to be at least a few hours of heavy sleet with strong winds. Yikes.

The new nuclear plants are super-safe and energy-efficient.

I thought the NAM was starting to get a clue. It will keep bumping east ... follow the white rabbit.

The 18z EURO?

GFS is fugly, even for western MA. Going to have to rely on the upslope to get near the EURO totals.

Interesting NWS discussion of upper levels in Berks: In terms of where any warm nose could track. The best chances for any mix would be the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and perhaps the southern Berkshires. The very strong southeast to east boundary layer winds push well into eastern NY but such a cold core closed upper low could limit the north and west extent of the boundary layer warm nose but again, those details are not completely clear yet. Usually, the benchmark track of the upper system for all snow in our region is the upper low tracking more toward Cape Cod, which keeps any warm air well to the east but we will see.

GFS now jumping to the offshore low. That at least locks it in for the interior -- still work to do for the coast.