RDRY
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Everything posted by RDRY
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Bands bullying their way north and west. Positive NAO can have its benefits.
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Radar looks great. Bands with no problem advancing north and west.
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Yup. Compare with previous run -- the southwest low is robbing energy from the northeast low.
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A bit better HRRR run so far through hour 9. Millibar stronger and leaning northwest. Through hour 12, definite improvement.
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It's still there.
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That's baked in at this short lead time. The 2 feet-plus totals are likely off the table for everyone, except maybe the Cape.
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The storm chases the convection on the hour 22 NAM and splits into two lows at hour 23. Then it takes until hour 29 for the western low to take over, but it's further east and 8 MB weaker than 6z. And moves east instead of north once it does. This all likely happens because the trough shifted slightly east, which bumped the initial surface low just far enough east to where it could chase that convection.
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NAM's fun, but no real support for jackpotting NYC.
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I think the modeling is pretty locked in on this being a Long Island special. The city may see a mega band or two traverse the area, but they'll be camped out on the island for the duration.
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Anyone thinking the GFS will pull a big cave don't know the GFS. Probably a nice shift west, but still an eastern outlier.
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With a 960s low in that spot with that track, you'd have to think the precip shield should be more expansive to the west.
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At 48 hours, it's 5 MB stronger and a bit more north, but the precip shield is less expansive. Odd. Maybe it's more occluded.
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Here's hoping this GFS run ingests bad initialization data, and is discarded.
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Looks like the Berks get in on some decent wraparound snows and probably some upslope with the NAM -- the upper levels looked better than 6z, but the surface didn't really reflect it.
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Yup. Back in the ballgame.
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Such a touchy setup. SW in California; PV dropping south; speed, depth and orientation of the trough; surface placement of the coastal low. Any of them with major downstream impacts. And still enough lead time.
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The western ridge keeps nudging ever-so-slightly higher the past 4 GFS runs.
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Is this really a significant model failure? 60+ hours out, they sampled the California energy slightly different, which cut it off from the emerging trough, so the trough doesn't dig as far south, doesn't sharpen up as much, and the storm develops a few hundred miles east.
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Probably shifted south along with the low. Same reason the midwest low shifted south and east from previous run.
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And the ICON is Daniel Jones.
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Well, now I'm expecting flurries and calm winds.
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I heard the ICON runs on Lotus.
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Trough now slightly negative at 75 on the NAM. Useful.
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Extrapolating past 90 hrs, does this move north or east of north?
