Newman

Sister in Reading just lost power, KRDG just gusted to 56mph

Yes the trends have been quite unfavorable, but I don't think we're done seeing changes with the evolution of the upper level low that tugs and phases with the southern vort. The past 4 runs of the Euro have been all over the place with that, it won't be resolved until we're closer in. The phase is just off too. Not saying the changes with the ULL will result in a better outcome, in fact we could see it continue to get worse with the phase. But the Euro still shows 6-8" SE if Philly in south Jersey. There's no reason to believe we can't squeak that NW a bit in 96-102 hours

Euro vs everyone

HRRR spikes Philly into the lower 60s with the frontal passage tomorrow and just about mixes out (tiny inversion at the surface) to 850mb with 50-65kt winds. High wind warnings are rightfully justified, could be some widespread 50+ or even 60mph obs at the main reporting stations

Taking a step back looking at the North American view, the biggest change was the energy that hits the West Coast around hr90. It deamplifies the PNA ridge and doesn't allow the TPV to dig as far south and stay consolidated. When the ridge breaks down, it just shears out the northern stream. I guess we still have quite a ways to go to know what will happen with that energy and all of the other small nuances in the flow

Not to mention the extreme H5 changes on the Euro itself from 0z to 12z.

The trend to elongate the TPV simply lowers the ceiling with this one. If you want the high end KU look, you need a consolidated northern stream to phase in like the Ukmet. A moderate event is still on the table of course even if the Euro/GFS scenario happens. But plenty of time left for this one. We'll see some surprises moving forward I'm sure, for good and bad probably.

I pulled out my KU book earlier today and couldn't find anything really similar either. 2016 and 1996 were huge pure Miller A bowling balls that rolled underneath the region, this isn't that but the ceiling is certainly very very high. I'm still remaining cautious for y'all...

Holy shit the Euro is insane!

Hearing the CMC is gonna be a good one...

The big time players and moving parts are all there on every major model, the small nuances in the orientations/speeds are all what make or break the high-ceiling phase scenario. Based on what I've seen this winter, where the Euro and GFS have seemed to naturally converge towards a middle ground final solution, I'd imagine that's where we're heading with this... But we all know anything can happen in these setups up until 24-48 hours out. Jan 2015 comes to mind of course. This one seems especially prone to small, non-linear adjustments

Haha you're not wrong! 18" would be pretty incredible and be a top 10 all time storm for Philly

That GFS run is a classic NYC -> Boston HECS verbatim. Although there's a southern stream component to it, the TPV lobe in the northern stream does the heavy lifting and bombs it out justttt too late for Philly and SE PA latitudes. I wonder how strong the NAO block gets to push that just a bit further south? It'll be fun to track this one and see how the morphology changes as we get closer.

I would venture to guess 90%+ of the posters here in our subforum don't take the long range models as gospel. This is in fact a weather forum: we post long range weather maps, track storms, and analyze ensemble guidance. When someone posts a 5+ day out map, it's assumed by most that it's exactly that... A weather-prediction model output with an attempt to simulate a chaotic, non-linear, dynamic fluid that we call the atmosphere. When the local Philly news outlets share long range guidance to the uninformed public? That's a problem and a whole other topic of discussion. Improving the communication of probabilities to the public, emergency managers, stakeholders, etc. is currently a huge area being tackled by the NWS. It's why there's been a big shift away from individual deterministic model evaluation and emphasis on in-house statistical ensemble products (NBM for example). In short, on a weather board like this I know most don't just take the models as gospel. The people on here are well-informed and knowledgeable about their stuff. We look at the long range models and scrutinize them because that's what we do and love. Speaking of long-range guidance... I believe this winter has been quite favorable at the 500mb level for mid-Atlantic snowstorms. Parts of SE PA have not been impacted as much due to small nuances in the flow that don't show up until close to game time. Compared to last winters, this has been quite an improvement.

Made it to -11 this morning in Laramie, would think we get even lower tonight

HRRR shows some light snows getting into SE PA around 6-7pm dropping a C-1" in the NW burbs, consistent with the winter weather headlines currently up

1.25" in Fleetwood

Just to highlight the differences and what I'm talking about, here's a comparison between the 18z RGEM vs 0z NAM. These small differences make a difference with getting precip into NYC and northern Jersey

The NAM allows for a more expansive precip shield with a 180-190kt upper level jet screaming over northern New England, putting Eastern PA, NJ, and NYC in a favorable right entrance region. The flatter models aren't really all that different with MSLP placement, it's the jet and SER flex that's different

Upper level jet streak has been trending towards a better position with the 11/12 storm on the NAM. Better upper-level divergence in the right entrance region of the jet bringing a more expansive precip shield north. NAM gets 0.6" of QPF to Philly!

Even with the favorable regional models coming in at 18z, I'm not sold on the magnitude of QPF depicted yet. Still think accumulating snow gets into much of SE PA, but a 1-3 or 2-4 ordeal is the way to go right now

RGEM is a really solid hit. Low end WSW for much of SE PA

The GFS and CMC have it too, Euro is just a bit warmer. Question will be if we can get a HP to anchor in SE Canada and how much CAD holds on.

NAM also shows the thump of sleet/snow Wednesday night less than 24 hours after the Tuesday night storm pulls away

First call from NWS. Seems reasonable and what my call would be right now. I told my folk yesterday in Fleetwood my first call is 1-3"