the_other_guy
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Everything posted by the_other_guy
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I fly out of Jfk multiple times a week for close to 20 years. It has its own weather separate from NYC for two reasons: Near the southern shore Removed from the UHI with lots of grassy open space in and around it it is more representative of Central and southern Long Island, and can be much cooler in the summer or warmer in the winter than nearby LGA. on nights with radiational cooling, it also cools much quicker than LGA. This particularly affects snowfall: very often rain, or on the heavier end of snow for coastal storms. in an a city, where everything land wise is small, JFK is the size of Manhattan from the Battery all the way up into the 100s. as a result, it has a different weather environment. On another note, but similar, 19° in Westchester this morning I drove down to LaGuardia 32°. I’m a similar distance from Midtown Manhattan that JFK is. My snowfall and my temperatures are not representative of Central Park in anyway.
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Winter was over 3 weeks ago. The rest of it was for entertainment value
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Just west of Denver. Close to 60 in Denver. High elevation has done well after many years of BN. The narrative that our historic season is somehow counterbalanced by their snow is a falsehood. Our historically warm winter is due to a bad pattern brutally enhanced by rapid warming of our local climate over last 30 years
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The normal high starts to really creep up towards end of month. Any of those 30s would be well BN at that point.
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Calculate that average after this week
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as I’ve been telling everybody I know, we knew this was coming eventually. It just showed up earlier than we thought…all at once. It’s going to take some getting used to, but really not a bad way for winter to be
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0 for 2 and a warm Nino December? Worst case scenario, but Im a Mets fan and skiing without jacket on 2/13
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Stop. This is ridiculous talk haha
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Central Park has two nights below freezing in the next 15. I think other than some March pity snow it’s safe to say this winter is over.
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You’re listing the bad ones, right?
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for this discussion, you really have to bring in probability of occurrence to coincide with this. if we are going to root for an El Niño to fix our problems, it is great to discuss the strength… But more important to discuss how often the weak state occurs. Not often enough to root for it.
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now list the bad ones. Go ahead…
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Yeh, and the rest of the winter was garbage. including a +15 in December. How was your December blocking call this year? Almost worth the shutout
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El Ninos arent good for us. You want a reset, fine.
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when I started flying, I used to look at the weather for the flights down south I was always amazed how old is frequently cooler at night in these marginal air masses in places like Raleigh and Washington Dulles, then in LaGuardia. And when you have a winter that basically, is a consistently marginal airmass, this is magnified. New York City is heavily influenced by its coastal location, its lack of any sort of elevation, it’s overpopulation, and extreme urban heat island. Even DC in Baltimore are somewhat removed from this. And it certainly helps at night.
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You could want, but thats not how this works. You will likely have a cool, rainy/snowy, shitty March and April. That’s how this season ends…
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There is no cold air. The models were grasping onto a thread the needle scenario. CPK has a shot at seeing 32F briefly on Saturday night. This is like rooting for a snowstorm in April. So, we didnt miss out on anything. This was/is a Hail Mary when you are down by 14.
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Does it pull in enough cold air? Airmass is so marginal
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there were a lot of guys talking about temperatures not getting below the teens a few days ago. this cold verified pretty far out. As the warmth has been verifying
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0F hastings on hudson
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this will be highlight of winter… everyone on this forum should really enjoy the next 24 hours
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Just based on law of averages, it would be hard to match or top a record month. But Don, what exactly is going on here? We arent in an El Nino. There is a lot of comparison to a warmer 97/98; but there isnt a direct correlation. What exactly went wrong here?
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Not that it matters this year, but by the next cold snap we will finally be able to talk about SUN ANGLE! First!
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Last Licks. Fuck us next week
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guys, in all fairness, you’re talking about less than an inch of snow. How precise could it be? It melts as soon as the sun comes out
