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Pityflakes

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  1. Pityflakes
    Were there any storm reports from Rd 1?
  2. Pityflakes
    Or the line west of quantico if it holds
  3. Pityflakes
    whatever spinny energy we had from that mesoscale LP feature is now quickly shifting north to/above the Mason-Dixon line. Guess now we wait to see if we clear out or if these little line features hang on in the DC metro. Have all afternoon now though to reload.
  4. Pityflakes
    This germantown cell is no joke on radar
  5. Pityflakes
    They've got to warn that storm no?
  6. Pityflakes
    Interesting things happening west of leesburg
  7. Pityflakes
    I know but how often does that verify? Not saying we won't get a line of breezy showers with the trough swinging through or that isolated spots see bows, but I'd focus on what's happening now since the environment is the most primed vice later when there's potentially messy showers/stable pools/post-storm subsidence scattered everyone.
  8. Pityflakes
    How much warmer was it supposed to get anyways? Already in the upper 60s. Sun would help but seems like CAPE might be sufficient already. Also, is the first line going to end up being the main event? Wouldn't be the first time.
  9. Pityflakes
    It's right where we want it at this lead time! :/
  10. Pityflakes
    Wow so essentially a hold ( at the surface at least). Don't envy NWS. Looking forward to CWG's 2-12" first call. Got to stick w/ the King though for now I think.
  11. Pityflakes
    You know if the Euro caves this run you'll be expected to do pbp ad infinium
  12. Pityflakes
    Patience. GFS has at least 8 model cycles before game time. There's plenty of time to let it cook and do what it does best (fold to the euro).
  13. Pityflakes
    If the GFS magically scores a coup on this one I'll be ecstatic for my snow, but may just give up on this tracking hobby altogether because it's truly just model chaos!
  14. Pityflakes
    Moderate sleet/IP, 3.5 inches on the ground in Springfield VA
  15. Pityflakes
    I’m sorry but it has to be said. This storm sucks. What a waste of epic artic cold and prolific moisture. Didn’t get to see one real snowflake in the daytime and now I get to be pelted by sleet as I shovel concrete. Maybe 3 inches in Springfield which is now just getting compacted by sleet. At this point I’m hoping for freezing rain since at least it will make the trees pretty. I don’t care what the official “accumulation” figures are at the airports which count sleet on their boards, this is a big bust by all measures. #endofweeniecrashout.
  16. Pityflakes
    Accumulation yes, but would sleet actually add to snow depth (which is all anyone who isn't a weirdo like us will pay attention to). Sleet usually doesn't just sit nicely "on top" of fresh powdery snow but rather it mixes in with it and even compacts it.
  17. Pityflakes
    I always wondered what 2-3 inches of sleet would actually look like... Did any of the models over the weekend sniff out the amped/cutting idea? Were their red flags? [And yes, I know that potential for a 6" snow in the cities is not a "fail" but its certainly not in the same league as a 12-18+ mauling]
  18. Pityflakes
    Seriously how could we fail at this point? Nine times of of ten we fail because of BL temps/sun angle/rates/DST/lack of moisture. Here we have mega cold (up to 750mb) and moisture transport galore. The other times we fail because we're relying on a coastal that just doesn't get its act together in time or is shunted south at the last minute. No so here we are 6-12 before the coastal really gets going.
  19. Pityflakes
    A run for the archives
  20. Pityflakes
    heavy virga
  21. Pityflakes
    Hopefully will result in a pausing of the north/amped "trend"
  22. Pityflakes
    Have to love GFS being on an island but you also have to admit the GFS solution is more consistent with our longwave pattern and historical trend of suppressive cold and little phasing/interaction between NS and SS. That's a huge cold high pressing down on us as verbatim that isn't typically present in setup that results in a miller A coastal riding up and giving the whole MA/NE 6-12+. Hate to be that guy, but I'd feel a lot better if the GFS starts caving in the next 12-24 hours.
  23. Pityflakes
    The Euro and the pre-12z GFS have a little vort max rounding the Ohio Valley and it "screws up" the orientation of the 500mb trough axis and delays it going negative. The 12z GFS doesn't have that. It's not crazy to think the models (even the Euro) might be overdoing that little piece of energy. Though without a big block or 50/50 low I'd be a little skeptical that the surface low hugs the coast as depicted but who knows.
  24. Pityflakes
    I know the models aren't showing much verbatim at the moment, but we must score at some point in this upcoming pattern right? Nearly all the pieces are there, PNA, vortex placement, some moderate blocking (maybe), southern stream energy/moisture? Not saying the "big one" is a lock, but chances seem more than decent for a coastal that gives us the goods.
  25. Pityflakes
    GFS at 12z looks...different
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