Pityflakes

Hopefully will result in a pausing of the north/amped "trend"

Have to love GFS being on an island but you also have to admit the GFS solution is more consistent with our longwave pattern and historical trend of suppressive cold and little phasing/interaction between NS and SS. That's a huge cold high pressing down on us as verbatim that isn't typically present in setup that results in a miller A coastal riding up and giving the whole MA/NE 6-12+. Hate to be that guy, but I'd feel a lot better if the GFS starts caving in the next 12-24 hours.

The Euro and the pre-12z GFS have a little vort max rounding the Ohio Valley and it "screws up" the orientation of the 500mb trough axis and delays it going negative. The 12z GFS doesn't have that. It's not crazy to think the models (even the Euro) might be overdoing that little piece of energy. Though without a big block or 50/50 low I'd be a little skeptical that the surface low hugs the coast as depicted but who knows.

I know the models aren't showing much verbatim at the moment, but we must score at some point in this upcoming pattern right? Nearly all the pieces are there, PNA, vortex placement, some moderate blocking (maybe), southern stream energy/moisture? Not saying the "big one" is a lock, but chances seem more than decent for a coastal that gives us the goods.

GFS at 12z looks...different

GFS is trying for the midweek thing next week. Surface looks warm if but that southern energy wraps up earlier we have a shot from DC east at least. Thereafter is def intriguing even though we don't have a storm to track yet. PAC and temps are good. Need blocking and southern stream energy.

Does anyone have a DCA sounding for precip onset time? Is this a cold chasing precip situation? Or are we expecting to wetbulb down pretty quick after precip starts? Surface looks warm.

We'll be nowcasting this one till the bitter end.

Ha. Meant to say have NOT pulled the trigger... Posted this just before they did, apparently.

Not sure what exactly is LWX's criteria is for a WWA but I'm a little surprised they have not pulled the trigger for the DC metro (or at least south of the Potomac) given (1) upside potential of an inch+, (2) timing (morning commute), (3) cold ground/road temps at onset, and (4) first event of the season.

Richmond is the new Westminster

Came in here for this. Haven't been following each run and assume it hasn't been consistent, but interesting and not crazy evolution as depicted. Cross-polar flow immediately before, southern stream system (from the trop pacific?!) transversing the lower 48 and with mb digging behind?

A left turning major into Charleston would be...problematic. BUT, that solution is based on the persistent seasonal 500mb west coast ridge finally breaking down and transiting across the whole of the lower 48 at exactly the right time to bring this in. Along w/ a fortuitous Canadian surface high moving in to cut off the weakness left by the retreating Bermuda high. Long way to go for this one. That being said, the GFS has been hinting at a pattern change and raising 500mb heights on the east coast for a while now, which would open the door for something tropical to reach the mainland. But it also keeps punting that change to Day 14-15 so who knows. Kind of feels like winter, waiting for an advertised pattern change that never seems to materialize.

cell over burke looks, um, interesting.

GFS hinting at a homegrown spin up tucking into NC/VA coast next week? Probably a phantom.

Need a westerly component at the surface, and some mixing, stat. if DCA is gonna make it to 100

can confirm. Where'd that come from?

woah big thunder/lightning out of nowhere in that ffx county "cell"

pityflakes

Sleet in W. Springfield, but w/ 6 inches on the ground and more on the way later tonight who can complain?!

So not as bright as Polaris then?

This. Can we please shelve the "surge is baked in because it used to be a Cat 5" myth. Which as far as I can tell isn't based on anything other than people invoking Katrina. Seems like surge is actually way more complicated and difficult to predict, but appears much more sensitive to topography, fetch, wind direction and duration, etc. Wind speed of course matters (an actual 140/150 mph cane at landfall is going to push a lot of water, but those extreme impacts are localized to the actual eye wall), but "historical" wind speed/pressure of a storm is less relevant. ETA: I'm not downplaying the impact of Milton or suggesting it was a "bust" somehow. But rather I'm suggesting that the surge impacts played out exactly like one would expect from a robust Cat 2/3 given approach angle and topography.

Heavy ponding alert inbound

This is the banter thread?

Yikes. I think this likely exceeds Charlie in the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area. May actually be the zone of highest realized surge.