LibertyBell

You also have to look at the lack of arctic ice in 2012 and the comparison to this year.

Yep, that was my thought also and the reason the Euro is playing catch up is that it hand't developed the Bermuda storm as strongly.

Walt, could you look into 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28?

less rain both to the east and west Don? How much at JFK?

if this is "just missing the phase" what would full phasing look like? this looks pretty exciting as is

GFS has this plowing into CC at 950 mb, the Euro should be interesting tonight.

they were reading our posts ;-)

The comparison to 12-13 with Sandy that year is a good catch too, latest GFS shows a track to Cape Cod at 950mb, but Euro Ensembles favor a more offshore track (maybe a la Matthew?)

2007-08 and 2016-17 were very different here, the latter was a really good backloaded winter with heavy snow in March and April. 2007-08 was pretty much a noshow winter here outside of one 6-8 inch event in February (a SWFE that didn't changeover.)

that was an extreme latitude based winter with the quick transition in extreme SNE. I remember your predictions for that winter were spot on, going with similar for this winter? 10/07 had the latest 90 I have ever seen on the south shore of Long Island.

That's a shockingly LP....would it be extratropical at this point?

What are you going to buy? Some Mets gear? How about a Bobby Bonilla jersey, considering they still pay him? ;-)

I guess we haven't had our first noreaster yet but this sure feels like it.

Yes, lots of events that got stronger as they approached the coast- we saw them in March and April too.

Makes me wonder if the Bermuda storm will cause the ridge to pump up stronger and to the west, thus increasing the chances for the second TC to hug the coast rather than safely go out to sea SE of us.

Top 7 warmest Septembers were all in the last 7 years!

we also need to do something about birds that get killed in collisions with airplanes.

How much rainfall expected for this system Don?

sounds like you expect that system to be along the SE coast and then go out to sea from there, Walt, a la Matthew?

what kind of wild weather are we talking about?

So much weaker on the EURO.....

Okay so according to the second key point, there are suites of the GFS run without the GFDL? Why dont we just use those? Or if there aren't, why not make a para GFS that doesn't use GFDL microphysics and run that parallel to the current GFS and we can compare them to each other and give preference to the one that's more accurate?

why dont they fix this cold bias? Isn't this as simple as applying a positive (+) temperature correction to the data? Simply do a study to see what the magnitude of the cold bias is and adjust the model to account for it?

it doesn't seem like there's going to be a whole lot of rain anywhere though (>1")

The GND is very thorough in addressing the many problems we face as a society, from the antiquated land use policy that is driving the current mass extinction to the unhealthy high meat/processed food diet that is driving the high rates of diabetes and obesity and the worst BMI in the world, to the problems of plastic pollution that are ubiquitous worldwide. The IPCC has stated we must cut fossil fuel usage by half by 2030 to avoid irreversible consequences and even that may be too conservative, as the damage we've already caused is expected to stick with us for thousands of years.