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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    yes, this is something I noticed a few years ago, but the relationship was stronger before the 1995-96 winter.
  2. LibertyBell
    this storm at the end of the month, the models have been waffling back and forth on it, do you see it more like 1991 or 2012? I see your list of analogs had 1973, 1988, 1999 and 2007 in it, and none of those had a large storm at the end of the month. Personally I'd throw out 1988 and 1999 as they are 11 yr peak solar cycle years, and go with 1973 and 2007.
  3. LibertyBell
  4. LibertyBell
    Lots of stuff here
  5. LibertyBell
    SST temp above normal is good for bombing storms, if we get that then those storms can drag down colder air as they bomb out. I've seen plenty of years with cold SST that turned into dud winters (a la 89-90)
  6. LibertyBell
    2 out of 3 aint bad..... 1995-96 and 2010-11 vs 2007-08 wait I thought you meant la ninas after el ninos lol those seem to be somewhat better than el ninos after la ninas
  7. LibertyBell
    better than 1972-73 at any rate lol- la ninas after el ninos seem to be pretty good....whats the story on el ninos that follow la ninas, are they also good?
  8. LibertyBell
    did you see this Chris?
  9. LibertyBell
  10. LibertyBell
    Do you think Phoenix can have half their days reach 100 degrees this year, Don? They have to get to 183. What's the latest they've hit it?
  11. LibertyBell
    This is worse than 2012 was.
  12. LibertyBell
    Some illuminating posts from Climate Ben about climate change and the perils of industrial agriculture and the role it plays in the current mass extinction: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1287482989639880706 https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1317414094010486788
  13. LibertyBell
    from reading a list of possible analogs in the main forum's enso state thread, 2007-08 was a big analog being used. On the positive side, they also mentioned an increasing possibility of an el nino after this winter, and this might be the last of the la nina winters for awhile.
  14. LibertyBell
    I dont get why all these people in Minnesota are so excited about snow....it's supposed to snow there. Dont have a coronary because you got 5 inches of snow, that's ho-hum and you should expect it.
  15. LibertyBell
    Probably more snow than last winter but still way below normal. I predict an average winter temp around 38.5 with less than 20 inches of total snowfall, probably more like between 10-15.
  16. LibertyBell
    I think we need a category above the relatively tame "warmer than average" If a season is +3 or more compared to the 30 year average it should be called a historic torch. Also I wouldn't use a 30 year average as that moves, we should use the whole period (or at least 1950 onwards) to compare it against what our climate "used to be."
  17. LibertyBell
    this does seem like one of those winter events.....the back end always does better over Suffolk county in those lol
  18. LibertyBell
    Better than 33 and rain though ;-)
  19. LibertyBell
    Thanks for the 2005 list, Walt! I didn't remember the unnamed storm...that year was so wild that we had tropical activity right to the end of December!
  20. LibertyBell
    Thanks! Final totals around 1.5, Don?
  21. LibertyBell
    you actually want warmer than normal SST to get storms bombing out more quickly, when they bomb out they drag down colder air from the continent.
  22. LibertyBell
    fixed in the para GFS check it out
  23. LibertyBell
    I've been thinking this could be the year for awhile, similarities to 2012 with low arctic sea ice, etc.
  24. LibertyBell
    Pumping up the ridge for the second TC, Walt?
  25. LibertyBell
    Euro looks like it's also moving to a two TC scenario so it may be playing catch up here. GFS has had it like this for awhile.
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