LibertyBell

Yep, thats why I was looking for more recent analogs where that happened, like 2015-16 and further back 2005-06.

Yup, that was prevalent during the late 80s and early 90s. Note how cold our Jan avg temps were during the 80s with low snowfalls. Thats a good side effect of our increasing precip totals since 2000- it's now difficult to get a below avg temp month combined with below avg snowfall, however it can still happen if the pattern dictates cold/dry followed by warm/wet followed by cold/dry, etc. And such a pattern is very stable and difficult to dislodge.

The 1990s was transitioning away from the low points of the 70s and 80s. We still haven't seen a winter as great as 1995-96 and 1993-94 was also really good. Unfortunately they were book ended by winters that sucked (except 1992-93 which was about average here.)

Seems like the average snowfall line runs from about Binghamton to Boston. Time will tell if it descends south as the season progresses.

I love the period Jan 20 to Mar 20 during our snowy winters.

this winter seems par for the course for a late 80s/early 90s kind of "winter."

Yes, and in 2015 we didn't get cold/snowy until around Jan 20th either.

I would also say that we almost always have a small window of winter in a long-term warm pattern. We had a 3" snowfall in Jan 07, as a case in point. It doesn't change the fact that the overall pattern is very warm.

The ironic thing is if we included 09-10 in this decade, the decade makes it over a 30"+ average by a nice margin.

Thanks, Walt! Do you have any amounts listed for the Mt Pocono to Scranton to Allentown corridor? Got a home near Jim Thorpe.

Walt, I have noticed there are more of these snow squalls in winters that are lackluster otherwise. I wonder if this is true or if we just notice them more? These happened quite a bit during the 80s and early 90s too. *it may be true, because in warmer winters, the lakes take longer to freeze.

It's pretty bad when 1" is considered a decent event lol.

Was JFK just a T? We had very little snow here aside from a dusting on car tops and roofs.

I wasn't aware of what was going in Europe, Don! How bad is it over there? Is there a global temp map for December? I also heard that Australia just had its hottest and driest year on record, and it's not even close.

14-15 and 15-16 being cases in point. What I find concerning though is that the mild pattern started later this time, so it might be more like 05-06 or 06-07.

A good thing about late Jan is that you dont need temps to be abnormally cold to get a significant snowfall event. Storm track is essential though.

So yesterday was the day when we hit 72 back in 2007, which was also the anniversary of the great Jan 96 blizzard! Is 72 the all-time monthly record for Jan, Chris?

2001-02 was much worse in my view.... at least in 2015-16 winter was pretty exciting from about Jan 20th onwards.

If you can do that, you should also be able to build a super weather machine that gives us epic winters every year!

I remember a few years ago we altered the Saffir-Simpson scale because of this rounding mess (which is worse in that case because it's to the nearest 5 knots.)

The traditional tendency is for the likelihood to increase. In any case, is the 60+ period forecast to be more prolonged than it was the last time it hit 70 in January, Chris? I think that previous January 70 temp was in 2007?

Oh so that 30.2 is above normal in F, not temps in C lol. Still another massive anomaly, maybe close to the level of the 95 we had in early October?

No chance of 70 is there- too much cloud cover?

Are the relevant shortwaves and other features in a well-sampled region or still off the Pacific?

1966-67 would probably be on the extreme end of what one can expect- that was one amazing book end winter that won out by its sheer duration and became historic- somewhat like 2014-15? 1966-67 stands out compared to other book end winters because we actually got a major snowstorm down here in December, before the mild pattern ensued. I was compiling a list of winters that seem to match what you're looking for, with varying lengths of mild periods book ended by cold on either side to varying degrees, that I've experienced. Here are the ones that snapped back to cold: 1989-90 (very briefly and very late, in early April, with snow!) 1996-97 (mostly in New England, big bookend winter in Worcester and interior Mass., the April snowstorm was a mild bust down here.) 1997-98 a renegade snowstorm as winter was ending 2005-06 and 2006-07 I already discussed these in an earlier post 2014-15 I hesitate to even include this because the snap back to snow and cold was SO extreme and lasted so long, somewhat like 1966-67. 2015-16 almost as extreme as 1966-67 but the warmth came in earlier (December) and so did the cold- we had a 30" + snowstorm on Jan 20th and below zero lows for Valentine's Day! JFK became only the second location (besides Norfolk, VA) to experience a 40" snowfall season with an average winter temp above 40F! The last three winters were also somewhat bookend winters (2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19). The first two were more extreme than the last one. *the number of book end winters seems to be on the increase, perhaps due to the abnormal warming in the Pacific and Indian Oceans?