LibertyBell
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This is just like one extended December 2015, I've already begun planting. at JFK 10 of the last 35 seasons have had fewer than 10" It's more common to get less than 10" than it is to get 40" and almost as common as getting 30" Used to this now.
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How did your predictions do so far? I look forward to seeing everyone's verification scores at the end of the season. Do you do yours at the end of March or sometime in April? In the Northeast and especially the Lakes region outside of Buffalo but also along the coast, it really hasn't snowed much in a few years, businesses that involve snow have been shutting down and looking for other kinds of work as climate patterns shift (an example is how the lobster business is dwindling with warmer ocean temps and the lobsters have been moving north of Maine and into the coastal waters around the Maritime Provinces of Canada.) -
lol well since it lasts for an entire week, it's like a vacation
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Most definitely, I was on the 89-90 train as soon as late December didn't work out.
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I heard about it, I hope no one is burning leaves....
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wow thats a lot warmer here than today-- is that likely? with no sunshine?
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warm and sunny and dry is way better than mild and rain and humid, the last thing I need is more mold
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Indeed, we've been discussing if that's why the December pattern didn't work out.
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Newark hit 70 today, NYC 67. A normal spring day here with a gusty southerly sea breeze keeping the south shore a dozen degrees colder.
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a very long time ago. I wonder if we can get one of those cold and snowy winters to repeat too lol March 1914 incoming?
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Thats an awesome thread I read it to the end and when he concluded about the government and media response leaving a lot to be desired
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Have there been any with more than 6" in December and less than 3 inches January-February Don?
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No it was not, 2010 was a historic pattern, this one wasn't. The temperatures don't even come close to matching. This was way more like the 80s pattern which was way before your time dude. Plenty of cold snowless Decembers then.
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I mean I was thinking of your luck scenario actually-- let's say it had snowed in December (ballpark figure...6-10 which is probably where the predictions were based on blocking.)... how often does a blowtorch January-February couplet happen after that? I settled on 6-10 because I distinctly remember Don saying back in December that while the blocking pattern was good, there were other factors that made him believe that while December would be decent (and 6 inches of snow would be decent), he didn't expect double digit snowfall in NYC.
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Yes, I think with the shortening wavelengths we could see something decent-- that's what usually seems to happen in patterns and winters like this. What fails in January and February can succeed in March. That's the main reason that March was the snowiest month in the 50s.
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I should have added this to my other post, but this is why I'm against luck: Honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February. That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start. it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"...the concept is called superdeterminism.
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But would this winter still be remembered as a horrible blowtorch because of January and February? So basically, this winter would be a bad winter regardless of what happened there? I honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February. That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start. it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"the concept is called superdeterminism.
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Yes, based on the numbers Chris posted, I'm using JFK numbers, which if I remember correctly are 10 out of 35 with under 10" and 12 out of 35 with over 30"....for us, it's more about either under 10 or over 30, it's close between those two.
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what I see is, some people who are biased for snow are saying one thing, and other people who aren't are saying something completely different. Having experienced some truly amazing winters, I don't feel like I have a bias anymore because I expect I've already experienced the best in winter weather that I'll experience in my lifetime. But this outcome we had this winter is much more likely than the great winters we mentioned the other day. And this winter will be remembered much more for the complete blowtorch in all of January and February than it will be for one missed chance in December....this was always going to be a bad winter, and it's really not even close.
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also...10 out of the last 35 winters have had less than 10" of snow here. It's more common than getting one of those really good winters we talked about the other day. So statistically speaking, this is a more expected outcome than having a great winter.
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There needs to be some sort of line drawn between this and going down the slippery slope into oligarchy This is the American oligarchy explained in a nutshell: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf https://act.represent.us/sign/usa-oligarchy-research-explained
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And yet we had others in our own subforum talking about how the warm waters in the NW Atlantic would be a problem for us......look,it boils down to this....I'd buy it more if we missed snow by 50 miles....how can you invoke luck when there was no significant snow within 100 miles of the region in any direction? Unless you're talking about well inland which is dramatically favored in December,,,, the stats prove that.
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No but understand they are talking about their region, not ours. I also strenuously object to the word "luck"-- there is no such thing as "luck"-- everything is cause and effect. We've already talked about how the type of block we had wasn't ideal, it wasn't what we had in 2010....and going by the climo here, it really doesn't snow much in December. You live in a different climo zone, so results would be different for you than for what they are here.
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So that abnormally warm area of water in the NW Atlantic had nothing to do with it? I'm going by the record of December on the south shore of Long Island and it's pretty ugly-- unless you have a historic pattern like December 2009, 2010...you really don't get much snow here in December. If that pattern had occurred later in the winter, as in Mid to late January or February I'd buy it-- but December isn't a winter weather month here anymore.
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Yeah and I didn't even know this happened until someone told me I should look it up. From 1996 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weyauwega,_Wisconsin,_derailment The Weyauwega derailment was a railroad accident that occurred in Weyauwega, Wisconsin, United States, in the early morning hours of March 4, 1996. The derailed train was carrying a large quantity of hazardous material, which immediately caught fire. The fire, which involved the train cars and an adjacent feed mill, burned for more than two weeks after the actual derailment, resulting in the emergency evacuation of 2,300 people for 18 days, including the entire city of Weyauwega, with about 1,700 evacuees. Derailment and fire[edit] At approximately 5:49 am, an 81-car Wisconsin Central train traveling from Stevens Point, Wisconsin, to Neenah, Wisconsin, approached the city of Weyauwega at 48.3 miles per hour (77.7 km/h), traveling on a downward grade. The locomotives and the first 16 cars of the train passed a switch without incident, after which the seventeenth through fifty-third cars behind them derailed at the location of the switch, at 5:49:32 AM. A subsequent NTSB investigation found the cause of the derailment to be a broken rail within the switch that was the result of an undetected bolt hole fracture.[1] The derailed cars included seven tank cars of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), seven tank cars of propane and two tank cars of sodium hydroxide. The derailment ruptured three of the tank cars, spilling both LPG and propane, which immediately ignited. The conductor of the train cut the train after the first nine cars, and proceeded onward 1.5 miles (2.4 km). When the local fire crew arrived on the scene five minutes after the derailment, fireballs were exploding up to 300 feet (90 m) high that were visible for nearly 13 miles (21 km). Fire spread to a nearby feed mill and storage building that were both difficult to access by the fire crew because the derailed train was blocking the grade crossing. High tension power lines were also torn down by the derailment, which caused secondary electrical fires. In total, seven of the tank cars of LPG and propane leaked, and the two sodium hydroxide tank cars leaked their contents. Electricity and natural gas service to 25% of the city of Weyauwega was disrupted, and city water services had to be shut off because of a rupture in a water main.
