LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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It's basically like a PRE....Lee Goldberg was just talking about this and said the snow will move in early just like it did with Boxing Day
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EE combination is the best modeling combo of all time.
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I think the same happened with Irene.
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Good nice to see a warm up after our huge snowstorm.
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Thanks Don, +0.5 sounds pretty close to neutral, will the AO be around -0.5? Maybe they will neutralize each other lol.
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That prediction was amazing considering there had been a decade plus of conservative forecasts since the March 2001 bust. I guess the Euro really had much more respect back then.
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Just get to 20" and you'll have a nice round HECS number.
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indeed, I would say this was the ideal run. Unfortunately we still have 5 days to go lol
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what was the reason for the boxing day disappointment? deform band too far west?
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it's perfect as is, hold it here. 20 inches for most.
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I like that the furthest west members are touching the Jersey shore, that establishes a nice firewall to the west. I expect this to track between Block Island and Nantucket.
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we've seen that disconnect more and more lately...so the AO will be negative and the NAO will be positive on Friday and over the weekend? Will they be weakly such or significantly departing from 0?
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yes these fly by night events are a bit annoying.
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when humanity reaches its next stage of evolutionary progress this is exactly how we'll all be talking. we might not even be talking, we will be directly projecting the words into each other's minds.
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Yeah it's like the kind of bust one would expect in the 80s. 3/01 resulted in a massive change in the way snowfall accumulation forecasts were made and for over a decade forecast conservatism prevailed.....until Jan 2015 lol... The Euro throwing out those immense totals for Jan 2015 must've taken everyone aback and because it was the unquestioned best model everyone bought those projected totals hook, line and sinker.
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Wait....March 2001 dropped 5" of back end snow when 2 to 3 ft were predicted, and the first two thirds of it was rain which really sucked. in Jan 2015 there was zero rain, not a single drop and 10 inches of pure snow, that's what makes it better. Also we got our thirty incher the following year, so all was good with the world, right?
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Love that max intensity 962 mb hook close to the south fork. I also like some of the ens members touching the Jersey Shore, that gives us a good west wall to keep this on the classic BM track or maybe even slightly west of the BM. I'd like to see this track between Block Island and Nantucket.
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20 inches....finally a run I like, we'll keep this one thanks.
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a good track for us
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so the control is just like another member of the ensembles? From what I recall, it's never been all that accurate, but is used as a comparison for the OP to be graded against for verification scores?
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it's spread out over a much larger area, therefore its intensity doesn't behave according to the same pressure rules otherwise you'd hear about Cat 5 hurricanes wandering about in the north atlantic and north pacific lol.
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These names confuse me....why not just say that 10 inch snowstorm in NYC that dropped 2 feet in Suffolk County in Jan 2015 it's immediately memorable then. And I don't get why people are so sore about a 10 inch snowstorm, it was fine, and we got our 30 incher the following year. People need to stop treating that storm as if it were the reincarnation of March 2001.
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whats the difference between the ENS C and the ENS M....the latter is much higher than the former. is C control and M is mean?
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Those must be an extremely rare kind of storm where both DC and BOS gets big snows and NYC doesn't Did Philly do well in that one too?
