LibertyBell

we've gotten several snowstorms in the first 10 days of April

45 isn't torch for February....60 would be.

actually this pattern was rather common in the 80s.

yup and we dont even have a double digit snowfall total lol

No one anywhere is getting 6 inches from this storm....take these snowfall numbers and cut them in half across the board.

How is it going to be 5 inches down south of here where it was even warmer today? No one anywhere gets more than 3 inches from this storm.

Maybe we'll get a March 1960 event later in the season

How is the Blend for DC 2.2" while the Actual is 12.1"? Is that a typo?

so were Strong La Ninas lol

I was shocked we had 4 KU events in 2017-18 lol. Are we including the early April 2018 storm as one of them? That was one of my favorite snowstorms that season.

Yep, I understand the frustration, ACY getting 12 inches was pretty irritating to watch for me too- it brought back memories of Feb 1989 when I took off from school for a snowstorm that never came, 6-8 inches that was all virga, They never changed the predictions either, I listened to Craig Allen talk about the same prediction that never came to fruition. And this blown forecast was repeated in December 1989, a cold and dry month, during which the one chance we had at a snowstorm (also a 6-8 prediction), turned to rain within a few minutes because of a secondary that formed too close to the coast. Thunder and lightning....and rain.

Thanks Walt. Might need to adjust the definition of Arctic fronts since getting to 0 seems to be a once every 2 decade event now.

Didn't we have two back to back 4-5 inch snowfalls that month a few days apart?

What's the definition of KU? I figured it was that you needed 10 inches of snow in at least one of the major cities?

Thanks so much Walt.... why don't people just call it an arctic front snowfall? That's what we called it in the 90s.

Yup although some consider Jan 1987 a KU storm. NYC had no 30 inch snowfall winters between 1978-79 and 1992-93

Looks like we didn't even make it to 10" snowfall without a KU event outside of 2018-19 which was a vast outlier with 20.5" of snow without a KU event. Wait, 2017-18 had 4 KU events?! I must've missed that! With 40.9 inches of snow were they all 10 inch events and that's all the snow we had the entire season?

There is still the likelihood for a big one as the pattern shifts to warmer weather-- root for that.

Thats right and if it means the cold air has to go to make it happen, that's a nice trade off. Nothing worse than worthless cold air.

Probably more like 1-2 for us here on the south shore, most of our outlets are talking about rain for a few hours at the beginning.

it's why all the locals are going with 1" of snow, best to keep expectations low.

See the 1980s when it was actually colder than this in January (avg temps around 25) and we saw even less snow than this. Or December 1989 which was even colder with even less snow. You want to have more snow around here? Find a way to nuke the Pacific Ocean and get rid of it.

and I'm going to go back to the idea that LR forecasting is pseudoscience. Can you imagine if physicists were given this kind of leeway when they developed the quark model? They would be laughed out of the profession. If you can't achieve a high verification score then it's not even worthy of pursuing. You have all these different models etc-- which is a sign of disorder and disarray. When physicists had a similar situation with an overabundance of particles, they developed the quark model in the 70s which consolidated and simplified everything into a few basic building blocks that explained how reality actually works. Until LR "forecasters" are able to do that, it's hard to take them or their "science" seriously.

Good because this is the pattern change you mentioned-- didn't you say that there would be a good chance for a big snowstorm just before the pattern changed to warmer? It would be worth it to actually get something, otherwise tracking weather is an extremely boring hobby.

We'll have a chance for one big snowstorm, and it will come right before the pattern changes to warmer weather. You agree with this, Chris?