LibertyBell

https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=cmceens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny I posted the Canadian ensemble model for cloud cover because Pivotal says it's the best we have. I just have a hard time believing there will only be 5-10% of cloud cover for the eclipse, that's weird for early April. The Canadian ensemble (CMCE) runs twice daily, with new maps typically available by 4:00 AM and PM EDT (1:00 PDT). Its forecasts for cloud cover are the most nuanced and realistic available on this page.

why don't we ever get a cutoff with 3 days of snow? In my life, I've never seen it-- only 3 days of rain (like December 1992).

https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=cmceens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny I posted the Canadian ensemble for cloud cover because Pivotal says it's the best model we have for cloud cover. I just find it hard to believe we could only have 5-10 percent of cloud cover in early April. The Canadian ensemble (CMCE) runs twice daily, with new maps typically available by 4:00 AM and PM EDT (1:00 PDT). Its forecasts for cloud cover are the most nuanced and realistic available on this page.

Pivotal also mentions that the Canadian is the most accurate for cloud cover predictions, but I find it --REALLY-- hard to believe that cloud cover up here will only be 5-10%. That almost never happens in April. https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=cmceens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny The Canadian ensemble (CMCE) runs twice daily, with new maps typically available by 4:00 AM and PM EDT (1:00 PDT). Its forecasts for cloud cover are the most nuanced and realistic available on this page. The American ensemble (NCEP GEFS) runs four times daily, with new maps available every 6 hours. Its forecasts for cloud cover can tend to overestimate coverage where the sky will only be partly cloudy, while its precipitation forecasts are realistic and useful.

This is from Pivotal Weather. They say that the Canadian Emsemble is the most accurate for cloud cover forecasting, so that can be selected from this page. NWS blend of models seems to favor the Canadian too, as the GFS Ensemble has a forecast for more cloud cover than the blend does. I selected New York for my state, but any state or the entire CONUS can be selected on this page. https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=gefsens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=gefsens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny

TWC is showing both GFS and Euro cloud forecasts, I didn't even know the Euro had a cloud forecast, I certainly can't find it on pivotalweather.

I hesitate to ask this-- but does this change the forecast for eclipse time on Monday? There's been so many changes in the last few days.

Thanks, were any of those monthly records, Tony?

Great minds-- I was thinking the same thing lol. I just didn't know if he did it on purpose or if it was some sort of Freudian slip lol

picture perfect day and the birds have been singing all day long

Weenies or weeklies lol

I recall December 2005 as one of the more infamous examples of this.... zero snow here and the LGA got 3" and NYC got 6"

too bad, I guess that storm that trended further east at the end was what prevented it from happening.

It's funny, I heard it rain hard for maybe 10 minutes, and then everything went silent.

They're pretty good for Suffolk County and the north shore sometimes back to the city. The screw zone is usually us on the south shore, especially the western part back to central NJ. I think your climate is very similar to my climate, in that I see the same storms screw north central NJ that hurt me here in SW Nassau County.

But he's been right about that so I guess it is lol

and of course snowman19. He was actually more gungho about February and he ended up being right about the one decent snowfall we did get, which was in February.

and also its patterns.

this is the south based block Chris has been talking about

yes-- so warmer nights and also more bugs

Hey Tony, with last night's downpour did either LGA or JFK make it to 10.00" of rain for March? I know NYC couldn't have.

It seems like a semi permanent feature now. The funny thing is, at the coast it's actually giving us a stronger southerly flow in the summer, so less 90 degree days.

Yea, winter 1996-97 was a pretty bad winter for us. The only two storms I remember were both for areas north of here-- December 1996 and April 1997.

I think you guys southwest of us got more snow than we did. Farmartin's page indicates the same thing. 6-8 inches of snow for central NJ and 1-2 inches here. You also got 6-8 inches of snow in April 1996. We did okay on Long Island with that one.

I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now? What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms? I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them.