LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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He's like those NFL teams that have perfectly imperfect seasons.
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There's not, that extra twist makes this even more fun
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There is literally no difference in snowfall amounts between Central Long Island and SE MA
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Good I hope it makes landfall with all the misery the GFS has given all week
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there is nothing to keep it from going further west so let's get it as far west as it could possibly go, this is the good thing about no arctic high pressing down to push the storm out
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how far apart were the two storms? a couple of weeks?
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How many miles were the models off by 24 hours before that event and right when the event began? Was it a 20 mile error?
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It's pretty interesting, I've tried the WU network but none of them quite reaches the levels of FOK....the closest one to it is in Quogue I think. Yep as far as bad data goes it's GIGO just like with anything else lol
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Yes the cold air is right near the ground therefore it takes very little to displace it. There is an inversion there because of the calm winds.
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Oh okay so there really is no nudge, the apparent nudge is just the result of imperfect data assimilation prior to more recent runs?
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Not at FOK lol where it's -1
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and HTO at 2. Is FOK the actual coldest spot on long island? There isn't a place a few miles from there thats even colder? Weird coincidence to have the airport sensor at just the right location to record the coldest temps, I'm sure it wasn't planned that way lol. Meanwhile JFK is 16 and LGA is 19.
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What causes the nudges? And why cant they be forecast better?
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HTO (East Hampton) at 3 degrees, so not far off from the FOK 0 temp. Wow now FOK down to -1 (is this their first below zero this season?) HTO holding at 3 (edit- HTO now down to 2.) It just seems weird that the airport sensor seems to be right where the coldest temps on Long Island are-- what a coincidence lol. Are we sure there isn't some nearby place around there that might be even colder?
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what are they measuring temps on, a slab of dry ice?
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all that we need to double our snowfall total from 10 inches to 20 inches is a 20 mile shift (like from the previous NAM to the current one.) That is some razor thin margin of error right there lol.
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Yes let's start with a baseline of winter storm warning and work upwards from there lol
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RDPS model?
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Nice it has 20 inches here, but it's 78 hours out lol.
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I think 6-10 sounds reasonable for NYC and Western Long Island.
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Those were both around 30" for settled depth weren't they?
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It's honestly the only way to compare historic storms from previous decades. Some people say that snowfall averages have increased because of the way we measure snowfall now (I only think that's partially true-- other factors are at play, like a warmer Atlantic and the slowing down of the Gulf Stream, etc.)
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your greatest measured storm of all time, Ray?
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I see so that was similar to PD2 and Jan 2016....our biggest snows seem to come from storms like that.
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well the amounts are somewhat cut back for my specific part of SW Nassau I went from 10" to 7"
