LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Are all signs of the Western drought gone, Chris? No more dangers of empty reservoirs, lakes dry, visible lake bottoms, etc.?
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Thanks Don, I was wondering if we had them too. Are they classified for us in the same way that they are in the Pacific (1 through 5)?
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Thanks Chris-- Was 20-21 the winter of the south based block if I'm not mistaken and when Texas had that historically cold winter with all the power outages? Or was it the winter with the coastal huggers when we had two big coastal hugging events (one in December, the other near Groundhog's Day?)
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I really wish we would have a reset on these terms, you don't see all these switch backs in the other sciences. 1) There are no such things as "superstorms" There literally is no such thing. This is another matter, but Sandy should have been classified as a hurricane right up until landfall. If it has 75 mph winds, it's a hurricane, period. Maybe make a distinction between tropical hurricanes and extratropical hurricanes for structural differences? The reclassification caused so much confusion and bad decisions to be made. I know this will not happen anymore and with the current system Sandy would have been a hurricane right up until landfall. Most of the damage occurred when Sandy was still a hurricane and some insurance providers refused to cover damage because it was not considered as such with the prior system in place. 2) It is not physically possible to have a river in the air, it's a stream of water vapor, of moisture, not a river. The term atmospheric river seems to be a term used to garner headlines and attention regardless of how many decades ago this phrase was created. 3) The definition of blizzards on the east coast should be different from blizzards in other areas. To distinguish them, a ground blizzard (one in which little or no snow is falling) should be different from a blizzard in which heavy snow is falling. Make 10" of snow a minimum requirement for this.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
LibertyBell replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
There's no need to hear or see any drought talk coming out of the west for at least another decade. For several years all everyone talked about out there was how all the lakes were drying up and they would be out of water..... well they got what they wished for. -
Chris, we have to make allowances for 2015-16. Central Park is just one point on the map, but if we expand the area to include all the airports and all coastal areas (which have a similar climate), then you can actually have a milder winter with 50" of snow. 2015-16 is a case in point. JFK had 40" with an average 40 degree plus temperature for the winter. There were parts of Long Island that actually received 50" that winter. It just needs a high end historic storm like we had that winter.... so say we have another 30" snowstorm, now you only need 20" for the rest of the winter to get there.
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Forky, we agree on everything about climate change, but you can actually get 50" even in a warmer winter. 2015-16 is a case in point. JFK had 40" with an average 40 degree plus temperature for the winter. There were parts of Long Island that actually received 50" that winter. It just needs a high end historic storm like we had that winter.... so say we have another 30" snowstorm, now you only need 20" for the rest of the winter to get there.
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It makes sense though because those locations are much further inland, this isn't randomness at play it's how the climate works.
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50 inches is my benchmark for a great A/A+ type winter, historically they should only happen about 10% of the time.
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I've seen a lot of interviews done with businesses that rely on cold weather and snow in the Midwest (particularly in Minnesota and Wisconsin) talking about how their businesses have dried up the last couple of years and they don't see it as a sustainable business anymore.
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It's interesting Don, we never heard the term "atmospheric river" back in the 80s, 90s, 00s, or even the 10s.... it only started being commonly used now. In previous decades we used to just call them Pacific coastal lows.... why is this term being used more frequently now and why don't we use this term for Atlantic coastal lows too?
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Bottom line-- the Pacific Ocean is simply too large for this planet to tolerate any huge changes to it and it controls the climate of the entire planet, so if something goes awry with it, it will alter the climate patterns of the entire planet.
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Why do multiyear la ninas happen so much more frequently than multiyear el ninos?
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Aren't we back to -AMO now Chuck? Interestingly and apart from this, we saw far fewer east coast TC in this cycle of the +AMO than we did in the last one back in the 1950s. If you look at the TC tracks, in the 50s they were mostly east coast storms and this time around it's been the gulf that's been much more active-- I wonder why.
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In climate change why wouldn't they both warm up equally, why is one part of the Pacific warming faster than the other?
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Please NEVER do this.... not even in the summer lol
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We have seen clippers, it's just that they are weak and move quickly and are moisture starved.
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It would be interesting to see as clippers usually dry up over the mountains and we get less than an inch from them.
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Does 2001-02 hold the record for the entire winter? It's going to be difficult to beat that one.
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The interesting thing is, this isn't just random or dumb luck. The winters that were already snowy like 2004-05 return to being snowy even after a warm 10 day stretch like we've having. And the winters that weren't snowy before, usually aren't snowy after that either. 2017-18 was similar, we had an early season big snowstorm, and then a mild to even warm February and then back to snowy for March and early April. Other seasons like that were 1966-67 and 1995-96.
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That was amazing and not just for us, for a huge part of the country from the Midwest to the east coast and it lasted into April for us and for all of April for the Midwest.
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If nothing wintry happens, then the pattern change will just be from rainy to dry and then back to rainy and then dry again lol. It's not even cold so we can't really say it "feels" like winter either.
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So this is the storm that changes the pattern.
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Going to stay awake for the 0z EURO?
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Makes sense for why it's so hard to get it below freezing around here in midwinter even on a north wind lol. February 2015 was the polar opposite of this (pun intended!)
