LibertyBell

"Best look" is still probably not good enough. A look like this in an already snowy season will produce a different result than in a season when it hasn't been snowing.

I see a lot of optimism, but in this region's climate, it pays to be pessimistic; pessimism tends to be correct more often than not.

March 1992 is an analog we have been talking about 6.2 on the 19th and 3.4 on the 22th.

Don, so JFK already passed their record from 1972-73?!

Be careful with Miller B's like I said in the other post, they are often a New England special. Simply too far to the southwest here to do well unless it's a really big one that strengthens early and quickly and even then we're usually on the fringe of the best part of it.

Don what's JFK's record and is it from 1972-73 and is that the lowest record from the 5 boroughs?

Depends, it came into play in February this year when it was in the 60s lol

we have to be careful with Miller B's they often don't produce here

Can you check to see what JFK had in 1972-73? I want to see if they are close to setting their new low record, they have 1.7" as of now. I'm using that for the lowest number for the city as a whole lol.

you're like me rooting on a historically low snowfall season. It's been miserable for most of the winter, let's get that for our troubles.

Lake Tahoe looks better though lol

No thank you, I'd rather get the record lol

I believe it's much more the decadal cycle of the PDO rather than la nina because we all know of a few la ninas that were extremely snowy. 95-96, 10-11, and even 20-21. If you go through the list of the least snowiest winters, very few of the bottom 10 were la ninas....probably more el ninos than la ninas in there...as I stated in the above post, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather.

But other la ninas weren't this pitiful in terms of snow and some of them are VERY snowy. If you go through our 10 least snowy winters how many of them were la nina vs el nino? I can tell you right now the two that come to mind right away were both el ninos (72-73 and 97-98) and one was neutral (01-02). Truthfully, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather.

No nothing can really overwhelm the pattern unless it's extremely strong....(you see this in very strong la ninas and very strong el ninos), which is why you see both snowy la ninas and not snowy la ninas, and snowy el ninos and not snowy el ninos. Everything needs to be factored in.

This is a good idea not to rely on any solution until within 5 days, beyond 5 days none of them are very reliable.

How though... if the GFS had a cutter for this storm 7 days out, did it switch to a snowy Boston solution after that? Looking at TWC it's actually snowing there right now, but it's a slushy kind of snow.

Yep so it's not one thing that starts it all but really everything working together. I see Indian Ocean conditions often mentioned as a precursor to whether there will be a la nina or an el nino so maybe something in the IO triggers it. It makes more sense that way on a round planet. Now if the earth were flat it would be a different story lol.

I dont believe it's any one thing, I believe everything works together in synchronicity. It makes sense because that's how nature works in general. The Pacific is influenced by the Indian Ocean which is influenced by what is west of it, etc. Since we are on a globe, everything is both cause and effect.

No it had rain for us like a week ago. I don't know what it had for Boston, I just know it had a cutter for us back then.

1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph. ^ I wish I was alive to see this one! also, wow how come such a large surge? because of the shape of the coastline there or the shallow waters? 1899: Cyclone Mahina, aka "The Bathurst Bay Hurricane" in Australia, was credited with producing the highest storm surge on record worldwide. The cyclone, with an estimated central pressure of 911 millibars or 26.90 inches of mercury, caused a 42.6-foot surge when it came ashore on the coast of northern Australia. The storm killed as many as 400 people and is Australia's deadliest cyclone. this one is funny 1841: President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, cold, and blustery day. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. Unfortunately, he died from pneumonia a month later, or did he? do we not know if he died at that time or not?

I think people are worried because the GFS was right about last night's storm.

No I think they all affect each other. The larger something is the more of an effect it would have.

I would think it would be cooler here because of that darned ocean I hate so much lol

Underwater why? There wasn't that much rain-- was there?