LibertyBell

Sounds a lot like December 2009

That's one reason why it's been so hard to get traction against AGW, most people actually want a warmer climate. Of course if you live in an island nation that's being threatened by it or live near a forest that burns every year, then you think differently. That's why in my opinion, what people think shouldn't matter, and AI should be running all our systems, to make the most logical and scientific policy decisions without regard to human "feelings"

Not really, at least it hasn't in a few years. I think the last time it froze over enough for skating was 2015. What a winter that was..... Totally agree about being in a winter, but let me tell you, having experienced those 80s winters firsthand they sucked just as much being in them as looking back at them. Cold and dry followed by mild and rain is my most hated combo.

sounds like some kind of weird and awkward drunken dancing aka "swaying"

This is not one of those storms with a small snowshield this is going to have an impressive wide band of very heavy snow well west of the storm track- like some of the all time greats from yesteryear (Feb 1983 and Jan 1996 just to name a couple.)

This is true, the lower scores start at around 6 days, once you get within that range, and if you focus on a specific time frame (for example 0z run at 116 hours vs 6z run at 108 hours), the skill scores of the off hour runs improves. I'd like to see what it's like today, vs that study which was completed in 2015.

I posted a pdf of a study from Yang done thru 2015 presented at one of the conferences showing how the 6z and 18z runs still have lower verification scores than the 0z and 12z runs and it's mainly because of much fewer conventional obs data (RAOBS) ingested for those runs of the GFS.

Long Island even western long island, does better on this run than the previous run.

It did? The Euro had more snow for me last night then it had from the previous run, there was no phantom shift east. Also the NAM beyond 48 hours is like dividing by zero, less than useless. The GFS is about as useful as American made electronics.

Using the NAM beyond 48 hours is like trying to divide by zero.

NAM beyond 48 hours is less than useless.

Strategically oriented my sleep patterns for these late night runs. Went to sleep at 9 PM and woke up at 1 AM lol. Will go back to sleep at 4 AM and wake back up by 9 AM....so 9 hours of sleep but in unconventional way.

Thundersnow is the best and most memorable part of the big ones (especially CG....I think I've only experienced that once and that was in Feb 1994 and it was both thrilling and scary at the same time.) The best part is when the heaviest snows occur during the day, so that's important too. I remember when I experienced CG heavy snowfall in Feb 1994 and I still say that was some of the heaviest snowfall rates I've ever experienced....we literally went from bare ground to 8 inches in like 2 hours lol. Best part was it happened between 10 am and noon. I was having breakfast that morning to bare ground and had 2 foot drifts by lunch time lol.... Jan 2016 and Jan 2017 (back to back years curiously enough) were my longest periods of daytime white out (confirmed blizzard) conditions, which I also really enjoy, zero visibility with heavy snow. I think Jan 2017 set the surge record at Boston if I'm not mistaken? What an amazing storm that was. All day heavy snow and zero visibility.

With a lot of wind and the long duration of the snowfall, how high can the ratios get? Maybe 12:1?

Regardless of how big the big ones get, there is just something emotional about the first one. April 1982 and Feb 1983 were my first big ones, and I loved them and was very excited to experience them but I was only 8 and 9 years old and there was no internet so no tracking outside of local tv reports. Jan 1996 was the first all snow snowstorm I avidly followed so that one will always hold a special place in my heart (also because of the 13 year HECS drought here, unimaginable today), but there was no internet for me back then so it was all tracking via local news. Seeing 2 and 3 foot snowfall amounts predicted for the first time in my life was absolutely amazing. I still say to this day that the snowfall amounts measured locally were lower than reality, because the 20-21 inches supposedly measured in Jan 1996 was exceeded by the 26 inches measured in PD2 and then the 31 inches measured in Jan 2016. But the supposed 20-21 inches in Jan 1996 looked a lot higher than the 26 inches in PD2 and probably close to the level of the 31 inches measured in Jan 2016.

I could see a 90 pct probability of 18 inches but not 24. It's very hard to get that kind of 24 inch coverage in even the largest storms....not even Jan 1996 or Jan 2016 had that here even though we had widespread 20 inch plus in Jan 1996 and widespread 24 inch plus in Jan 2016.

wait, what were you before you were a sentient being?

There are flights being sent in tomorrow.

How is Kuchera calculated? The regular maps have 20 inches here and the Kuchera has 35 lol. I suspect the regular is more accurate.

Indeed, it looks like we have some run to run consistency now.

Looks like a big storm from there all the way to New England. I could see all of us getting 20 plus.

Main cluster still projects a benchmark track

Wait a hurricane made landfall here in 1971? I thought Belle in 1976 was the only hurricane landfall here in the 70s? Did Agnes make landfall as a hurricane here too?

I was referring to the early and mid 1970s, which were completely different to the late 70s. Outside of that historic ice storm, our "fun" really began from 1976 onwards.

these people dont know how to read maps, how is more snow worse lol