NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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I'm not writing this off 5 days out. I just know from experience that this setup favors SNE. Aside from a few runs here and there, most of the snow has been from the initial overrunning/inverted trough, rather than from the coastal itself, which develops too far offshore. Even the 18z GFS from yesterday, which was really tucked in at H5, had most of the precip offshore.
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Just close enough to wave goodbye as it slams Cape Cod. Late developing Miller B's are never good for this area.
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Yeah, and? The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South.
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I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE.
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I was never excited about this threat. To me, it always looked like a late blooming Miller B/Inverted trough which is never good for us.
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The storm on the GFS around 2/11 has some promise. It’s a similar setup to last weekend.
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Anyway, looks like a threat of a few inches next Wednesday.
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The SLP that’s near the NC coast actually gets absorbed by the one further offshore on the GFS.
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Better but still at least two lows
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Back to 12z
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Early on GFS is slightly better.
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I would be more optimistic if I lived out on the island. For those of us in the NW crew, this one is over and I’m fine with it. I had 20” on Sunday and 4 or 5 plowable snowfalls before that. Also my roof is happier.
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#3 is the initial problem, #4 is the final nail in the coffin.
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This has so many issues now. It’s close to beyond fixable. The trough closes off too early and way too far South. You would want it over VA or WV. You have poor wave spacing and you end up with a ton of junk at 500mb which spawns 2 or 3 different surface lows. And then the final nail is that kicker coming into the Northern plains on Saturday.
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So far East it missed everyone except Eastern NC and extreme SE VA.
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It’s still a positive tilted trough and it’s actually further East than 12z.
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I really hate Miller A’s. Feast or famon and more often than not, the latter.
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Sorry, you’re not getting snow back to Eastern PA with a surface low 200 miles South of the benchmark.
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This is what the 12z Canadian did. 500mb is a mess with a ton of vortices. I’m not sure if the models are focusing on the right pieces. Each run and model seems to be different.
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The trough orientation is neutral on the Canadian and actually does go negative at the last minute. I think it would have ended up better if not for the double barreled low.
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I’m not throwing in the towel but I’m being realistic based on what I see, the trends and my experience.
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Yeah, but it makes sense. This vort that swings through creates the first low.
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It’s still a miss except for LI.
