NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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By 144hrs it's in nearly the same position as 06z.
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Peak intensity in about 5-6 days at 915mb and 145kts. Landfall in about 13 days near OBX as a cat 3. Storm accelerates ENE and is eventually absorbed by the trough.
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This is probably already a hurricane. Just don't have recon to confirm so still going off satellite estimates.
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https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1699233171601023038?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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We now have TS Lee.
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12z GFS was very similar.
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You would probably get tropical storm force winds all the way back to NYC with that type of track. Cape Cod would see hurricane force gusts.
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Interaction/enhancement from the trough. Wind field expands and the storm only weakens slightly.
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Looks like a direct impact on SNE coming around day 11. This run is a day slower than most of the recent GFS runs.
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12z GFS will be West of the 06z run.
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The trough axis coming through the lakes is quite a bit further West compared to 00z at 168hrs.
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Latest radar scans clearly show a well definied eye has emerged. Here in Orange County things look to be trending towards low impact. Tornado watch is just to our West. No rain here since intense squall 4 hours ago.
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Just got hit with an outer band here. Poured for 5 miniutes and gusted to about 30mph. Location : Disney
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First SVR warning of the day here, just SW in Osceola County. Saw some good structure
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I’m down in Orlando for this one. We were supposed to fly back tomorrow morning but we moved it to Friday as a precaution. Only expecting some outer bands here but there’s at least a marginal tornado threat.
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The back edge of the rain shield is close to clearing the coast.
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So used to saying Atlantic with tropical, my bad.
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Looks like the enhancement from the coast along with the moisture feed off the Pacific has set up a bit further West then thought. Radar looking like quite a drenching even for LA.
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Huh, I’m usually the one that overhypes everything. I think it’s going to be highly impactful but I think a lot of people on the coast are going to say, “what storm?”
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The core is obviously gone and the radar doesn’t look overly impressive over Baja. I’m wondering if the forecast is overdone outside of areas with local enhancements from terrain/elevation.
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IR presentation has improved significantly in the past two hours. Waiting for confirmation but looks like ERC is complete.
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IR loop shows the eye constricting significantly over the last few hours.
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Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis?
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That would be tremendously costly and wasteful. Planes usually carry significantly more fuel than needed incase something happens and they need to modify the flight plan. Planes that travel over large bodies of water like transatlantic flights carry even more extra fuel.
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The 12z GFS has a 10"+ swath in the rural areas (Mostly dessert) and away from the major population centers. But certainly that amount of rain and intensity on that type of terrain would cause significant issues. It doesn't look like wind will be a major factor as the storm unravels pretty quickly on approach.
