NJwx85

Similar to what? The NAM is currently the slowest of all the guidance to bring the cold air in at the surface and is weakest.

FWIW

Enough for the entire Hudson Valley to be under an ice storm warning.

NYC and W LI flip over at the very end.

Not much ice for the city on this particular run but definitely gets the colder air farther South faster.

The cold air really presses down through the Hudson Valley this run.

12z RGEM is brining in the cold air at the surface faster than the 06z run. Should increase ZR amounts further South.

The model gets a lot more attention than it deserves. It has scored a few points in recent years but overall it's terribly unreliable. The next run could give us 10" of snow. That's how wild it is.

The 12z runs of the 3k NAM and 12k NAM are both similar.

I love how one run of the long range NAM somehow tops the rest of the guidance. You would think everyone on here was either born yesterday or has a very short memory. The NAM is erratic and unreliable until inside of 36hrs and even then it's susceptible to major run to run shifts.

Watches/Advisories coming potentially The GEFS probability of freezing rain has been increasing with each successive model run for this event, with a 50%-60% chance of freezing rain for KLGA and just over 50% for KISP. The 21Z SREF also had between a 20% to 40% chance of freezing rain for the city and Long Island, which are high probabilities for this model, although the most recent run has backed off on these chances. Finally, the deterministic models generally came in colder with the 00Z runs. If this colder solution continues, more in the way of ice is possible, especially because that could mean the colder air filters in during a period of more moderate precipitation. For now, went with ice accretion of between a tenth and a quarter of an inch for western Long Island, New York City, northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest Connecticut. Elsewhere a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch is expected. Higher elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley would likely see the highest ice accretion amounts. Additionally, any standing water from rain and snow melt will refreeze during this time frame. While these values do not prompt Winter Storm Watches to be issued (0.50" of ice would be needed), will have to monitor for this potential if it looks like a significant impact to either or both commutes on Friday, as there still remains uncertainty with the exact timing of the transition to the wintry mix. Otherwise, given these ice accretion amounts, Winter Weather Advisories would need to be issued with this afternoon`s forecast package or Thursday morning`s package.

1”+ ZR in the Hudson Valley this run. 0.50” for NYC.

Really all the other models have been slowly trending towards it. Even if it ends up a tad too warm aloft and we get more sleet than it shows, even a quarter inch of ice is no joke.

A glaze is pretty. A half inch will do major damage.

The NAM is way over amped, exactly where you’d expect it to be.

Very unreliable.

Trending towards GFS again. Not good.

That’s the same as 12z was.

GFS still had a major event.

You're correct about it being the wrong run. I wouldn't necessarily say warmer.

18z NAM starting to pick up on the ice threat.

I don't think of areas North of 84 as part of this subforum but yes you're correct.

Not until after 18z when most of the precip is over.

A compromise between the GFS and EURO would be close to a worse case scenario for us.