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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    NAM has a fairly intense looking line coming through tonight from South to North.
  2. NJwx85
    Hate using the NAM for anything tropical, but it does show some intense winds making it fairly far inland.
  3. NJwx85
    I'm really not that far inland. If I take a three minute drive down Rt 17 I can see the city.
  4. NJwx85
    I'm in Mahwah, which is upper Bergen County. I'm not trying to mitigate the severity of the storm, especially for those just along the coast. I'm just not totally convinced yet that the winds on the modeling will be fully realized. Usually we end up with an inversion and that requires deep convection to overcome, but I also understand that we should have solid mixing East of the low track so who knows. Just a low confidence forecast IMO. Forward speed should also play a role.
  5. NJwx85
    Satellite loop shows this is already beginning to interact with the trough. I'm liking the idea of slow intensification today since the shear vector should actually help to ventilate the system now.
  6. NJwx85
    Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?
  7. NJwx85
    Shear has calmed down some, but still running in the 25-30kt range. Probably not going to have much of a window for intensification before landfall. After landfall in the Carolina's, it will be over land for much of the rest of its existence, so no ability to ride the gulf stream up.
  8. NJwx85
    I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here. 12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.
  9. NJwx85
    Should be a good deal of rain out ahead of the core as it interacts with the trough which will draw the moisture poleward. The actual core should be intense but it’s a very fast mover. I think rain totals might be in the 3-5” range, unless the PRE is more intense than it currently looks.
  10. NJwx85
    Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.
  11. NJwx85
    This is the best analog that I can find. I think it's pretty similar. Only difference is that it stayed just off Hispanolia instead of grazing it.
  12. NJwx85
    I’m currently thinking that wind on the coast might be a problem, especially over E LI. West of the track should be lots of rain but it was so dry for so long we should still be in decent shape flooding wise unless we get 8”+ in ~10 hours like we did in Irene.
  13. NJwx85
    The storm is really hauling and if it ends up much more intense than predicted it could be a legitimate hurricane near LI.
  14. NJwx85
    Coming up on the 10th anniversary of my favorite March storm of all time.
  15. NJwx85
    lol
  16. NJwx85
    Had almost 5” of rain in Mahwah for the 11/2-11/3 storm.
  17. NJwx85
    PA tornado outbreak?
  18. NJwx85
    "Shaking felt thousands of miles away, devastation from Boston to DC as 8.0 magnitude Earthquake strikes along the Ramapo fault in NJ"
  19. NJwx85
    Is @HurricaneJosh still over in that region? If so, might as well hope over to Taiwan for the next one.
  20. NJwx85
    He hasn’t posted anything on Twitter or Facebook for roughly seven hours. He said he was about to lose all connectivity and he was still well outside the eyewall. Probably one of his most dangerous chases ever given the remote location and intensity.
  21. NJwx85
    DIX destroyed OKX this time around.
  22. NJwx85
    It's really annoying that KDIX is down again.
  23. NJwx85
    With the clocks going back this weekend we're really going to start dropping into the doldrums of late Autumn. We've been lucky that it's been a relatively dry and mild Autumn so far, however that looks to change, at least somewhat moving ahead. I'm playing golf on Saturday afternoon in an attempt to hold onto the last gasps of outdoor activities. So we're three weeks away from Thanksgiving and about 7 1/2 weeks away from Christmas, and then we start turning the corner as days begin getting longer once again. It will be a slow few weeks in January, especially if the Southeast ridge returns, which I strongly favor in my thinking. After that it's two weeks for pitchers and catchers, the Daytona 500 and away we go as the long awaited first signs of Spring begin to emerge. It's always a great feeling that first day in late March when you can open up the windows and breathe in the fresh air after being cooped up for the previous 14 weeks or so. I love snow as much as anyone, but I have no use for cold. And the older I get, the more and more I hate the Winter. I take solace in knowing that legitimate Winter in these parts is usually no more than a 12 week affair, and hopefully this year it will be even less.
  24. NJwx85
    Cold Winters are overrated and no guarantee for a Snowy season. How many times in recent history have we been stuck under the cold and dry PV while areas to the South and East got pounded with storm after storm? Plus who doesn't like breaking out the shorts for a few days in Mid-February? I love snow just as much as the next person, but I have no use for cold and dry.
  25. NJwx85
    Autumn sucks. I hope we stay in the 70's and 80's through at least the next few weeks.
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