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Wurbus

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Everything posted by Wurbus

  1. Wurbus
    03z RAP doesn't look bad either.
  2. Wurbus
    That's insane lol. It does seem like someone has the potential to see some over performing action based on some of the heavy bands the models are showing though.
  3. Wurbus
    Looks like the 00z NAM picked up totals compared to the 18z. It looked like it had some heavy bands setting up for an hour or two. I can see why the MRX is being cautious on their totals though, usually the cold chasing the moisture doesn't work out too well for the valley. Hopefully, it works out for a good chunk of the area this time though.
  4. Wurbus
    Not much change in the 18z RGEM. A little less totals on the plateau compared to the 12z run. It's just going to depend on how fast the cold arrives and where those heavy bands setup I believe.
  5. Wurbus
    GFS looks like it has a heavy burst of snow for the eastern valley and totals picked up to 2-3 inches across most of TN on the CMC tonight.
  6. Wurbus
    Thanks. I thought it might be a higher resolution than the other members, but obviously not as high as the main. I guess that explains why it went bonkers on the latest run.
  7. Wurbus
    What is the difference between the Euro Control and one of the 50 members in the Euro ensemble?
  8. Wurbus
    Go look at the Euro control for some eye candy. I counted 3-4 "big dogs" on the EPS. Most of the members didn't have much, so we need more support, but something to keep an eye on for sure.
  9. Wurbus
    Pivotal Maps has a close up of the Nashville area for the Euro.
  10. Wurbus
    That low pressure is something to watch next Thursday/Friday. I'm guessing it's going to be a cold rain based on climatology and it being mid-November, but I hope I'm wrong.
  11. Wurbus
    Picking up on Holston's post earlier, the 12z GFS is a little wetter for the valley and East TN in general. I still think a dusting to half an inch on the grass isn't out of the question for a good portion of the area. Maybe we can score some fatties for 15-30mins at least. Anything this early in November is a bonus anyways. Almost in NAM range!
  12. Wurbus
    18z GFS looks a little more like reality. Low forms a little more south than 12z and not as much moisture available. Looks like a quick changeover from rain to snow along the backside of the front, which is what normally happens around here so much more believable to me.
  13. Wurbus
    I typically don't like the rain changing to snow scenario here in the valley. Usually doesn't work out 9 out of 10 times. With that said, this cold, at least for now, seems rather impressive so I'm holding out a little hope right now. This is also the first real test for the GFS this winter, so we will see how it does.
  14. Wurbus
    I agree. Statewide back side snow for everyone! Still 6-7 days out. Weenie map below
  15. Wurbus
    0z GFS & CMC had a small, decent snow for most of East TN on that run. Still about a week out, but good signals today I think. At the very least, looks to be very cold next week and it is nice to have something to watch this early in the season.
  16. Wurbus
    Coldest map I see on the Euro from the Pivotal maps.
  17. Wurbus
    I'm not sure if this has been said yet, but Pivotal Weather is now providing free Euro model runs with precip and temps in real time.
  18. Wurbus
    I'm not sure if this is the right place to put this, but I saw this on Twitter and though it was interesting since the most drastic change of the lowest of low temps affects our area and KY.
  19. Wurbus
    Quite a few big dogs on the ensemble's as well. I moved the sleds from the garage to under the house last weekend, so that seems about right to have a chance of a little snow to cap off this crazy winter.
  20. Wurbus
    I'm getting some light sleet near the Karns area. It caught me by surprise when I let the dogs out for the night and was hearing the light crunching sound as the sleet fell.
  21. Wurbus
    I agree! Unless we get the epic fantasy storm the 00z GFS had at the end of its run. It does appear that it will be colder than normal for the back half of March though, if the models are correct. They haven't been correct all winter about the cold and kept pushing it back, so I'm not sure why this would be any different.
  22. Wurbus
    Latest GFS brings the fire hose right up the eastern valley again for the weekend system. The below image is a 24 hour total.
  23. Wurbus
    Oh, I totally agree. Might be the one time I'm ever rooting for suppression!
  24. Wurbus
    Yeah......Just my opinion, but I have a feeling that next week's system is going to get suppressed.
  25. Wurbus
    12z Euro had something for next Sunday/Monday. Still a ways to go and suppression might be a concern. Although, if it is suppressed, at least we will be dry.
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