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Runman292

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  1. Runman292
    I need to stop thinking that when the SPC mentions the TN Valley in their severe weather outlooks that they're talking about East TN. When I saw Jax's post in the severe weather thread about the upcoming severe weather potential, I thought that the TN Valley wording in the SPC included East TN.
  2. Runman292
    In MRX's latest discussion, the short version is that they will not be issuing any winter weather advisories due to their thinking that the road surfaces will be too warm and the snow won't be heavy enough to stick around on the roads. Their current thinking is 1-1.5 inches in the plateau, 1-3 in the higher elevations in the smokies and Northeast TN/SW Virginia, and maybe a dusting in the valley, all on grassy surfaces.
  3. Runman292
    Can you post a map of how cold those models are?
  4. Runman292
    Be sure to put on some layers if you're going outside right now, lol.
  5. Runman292
    Considering that Knoxville averages 0.4 inches of snow in November, I'd say it was a good little event.
  6. Runman292
    MRX appears to want to wait until there's over an inch on the ground in Knox and other valley locations to include them in the advisory.
  7. Runman292
    Starting to see a light coating on the grass in South Knoxville. It's all snow here now.
  8. Runman292
    MRX issued a special weather statement for the valley counties not in the advisory.
  9. Runman292
    I'm pretty close to Jed (a little further south). It's a mix of snow and rain.
  10. Runman292
    Classic horseshoe with the advisories, lol.
  11. Runman292
    I might. I did reserve a spot, but I'll have to see if I'll be able to have the transportation to go.
  12. Runman292
    Thankfully, the power only flickered for a few seconds at my place. I did hear a tree fall on my property during the storm.
  13. Runman292
    Another Tornado Warning in southern Cumberland county.
  14. Runman292
    It’s been 16 years since the northwestern California coast has seen a Tornado Warning. Incredible!
  15. Runman292
    Please let this happen. We’re overdue for a good snow.
  16. Runman292
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the Eastern Half of East TN (Knoxville and east) until 10:00 PM EST.
  17. Runman292
    Latest Day 1 Outlook from the SPC has taken the western half of East TN (including Knoxville) out of the enhanced risk.
  18. Runman292
    Could that have an impact on the storms for tomorrow?
  19. Runman292
    In the latest update, the enhanced risk didn’t shift west, but it did expand west some. Here’s the latest from the SPC: ...Mid and upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, southward into the Southeast... A semi-continuous, roughly north-south band of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period, extending from southeastern Indiana/southwestern Ohio southward to the Alabama/western Florida Panhandle coasts; while this will likely be a period of relative minimum in severe risk, local risk for damaging winds/hail, and possibly a tornado or two, will likely be ongoing. As the airmass ahead of this initial band destabilizes into the afternoon, storms are expected to reintensify. Damaging winds and some tornado risk may spread across the middle and into the upper Ohio Valley through the afternoon with this band of storms. Meanwhile near and east of the southern Appalachians, reintensification of convection in this band may become more cellular in organization. Given favorably strong flow through the lower and middle troposphere contributing to strong shear, this more cellular storm mode would support risk for a few tornadoes, along with locally damaging winds and some hail. In the wake of this initial band of storms, modest destabilization is expected, likely leading to development of a second band of storms nearer the surface cold front. As this band of storms crosses the middle Ohio Valley/Mid South region, severe risk is anticipated, with damaging winds and tornadoes both possible given the very strong shear residing atop the pre-frontal boundary layer. Risk in any area will be somewhat storm-mode dependent, with a mix of cellular and banded structures possible within the north-south zone ahead of the front.
  20. Runman292
    Not sure where to put this, so I’ll put it here. Is there a website or 2 that can help me understand meteorology more? I see several folks involved in very detailed weather discussions, and I kinda feel left out just following the models and not taking part in the discussions.
  21. Runman292
    He is my favorite local meteorologist. Sad to see him get fired.
  22. Runman292
    Latest AFD from MRX: .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)... Storms with supercell structure have been increasing across N AL and Middle TN over the past hour. The short term models indicate that the environmental shear and instability will remain supportive of supercells, and the RAP shows strengthening mesoscale forcing as storms move into our area. The period of the greatest severe threat will be between 7 pm and midnight. Damaging winds with be the main threat with the storms, and tornadoes will also be possible given the high shear and low LCL environment. The Plateau and southern TN Valley will be the areas of greatest concern for tornadoes. The eastern half of the area will still have a threat of straight line winds but storms should generally be weakening after moving past Knoxville, which should occur around 10 pm to midnight.
  23. Runman292
    With MRX mentioning the possibility of supercells, I would think it could get rough.
  24. Runman292
    Playing devil’s advocate here in regards to watches not being taken serious by the general public: In the case of East TN, a good chunk of Tornado and even Severe Thunderstorm Watches that have been issued for the area end up being unnecessary. A big part of that is due to the storms weakening over the plateau and the instability and wind shear rarely seem to be favorable at the same time in the region. It’s gotten to the point that because a lot of the watches in recent years have turned out to be false alarms, it can give the average person the idea of “Well, they seem to issue watches often and nothing bad ends up happening. Why should I take them serious?” So, I understand why some people are skeptical about the watches.
  25. Runman292
    Edit: Disregard my last post.
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