Runman292

Good morning, everyone. It's been a while since I've last been on here. I'm sorry that I haven't been posting since last winter, but I've had a pretty rough year. In February, I started getting daily headaches and migraines out of nowhere. I've had a few migraines that have mimicked strokes, which was really scary. On top of that, my wife had a "widow maker" heart attack at the age of 33 in June. I'm hoping that 2023 will be better for me and my wife, and that we get a lot of snow this winter.

20/12/6

MRX AFD for Thursday: Discussion: The main concern of the period is the severe weather potential on Thursday. Agreement on timing looks to be a little better with the NAM now coming in slightly faster, which puts it in better agreement with the other models. If the trends hold, this would put our best chances for seeing strong to severe storms from late Thursday morning through Thursday evening. Due to the mean flow being parallel to the cold front, there will be several clusters of storms move through the area throughout the day. Because of this, it`s hard to narrow down the timing of the severe threat. Setup: A quasi-cutoff upper low will make it`s way out of the Great Plains on Thursday and into Western TN by Thursday evening. A strong upper jet associated with the low and will move into our area through the day. Due to the strong upper jet, combined with high pressure anchored off the coastal Carolinas, a moderate to strongly sheared environment will be in place across our area. Soundings show shear values increasing through the day as the upper jet moves further into the area. The NAM is still the most aggressive with shear values, with 0-1km shear of near 40 kts and 0-1km SRH values around 350 m2/s2 which is concerning. The GFS isn`t as excited however. Looking through the CAMs on SPC`s page, all of the members show a few to several 2-5km helicity tracks across our area. This is further indication of the severe/tornadic potential. Again, the main threats with these storms will be damaging winds and few isolated tornadoes. This will likely be a messy event due to several rounds/clusters of storms moving in through the day. In addition to the wind and tornado threat, isolated flooding will also be of concern due to the moderate to heavy rainfall expected with the stronger storms. The atmosphere will be very moist with PW values averaging 1.6 inches, which is at the 90th percentile for BNA sounding climatology. Also, still anticipating 30 to 40 mph wind gusts across the higher terrain of the east TN mountains through the the day Thursday due to the 40kt 850mb jet in place. The severe threat will wind down Thursday night.

It looks like there is a spin on the radar in middle tn. Is that the center of low pressure?

Wow, it just went from a thunderstorm moving through to the sun being fully out and clouds disappearing in Oak Ridge.

I have a question. Will the storms down in Florida and Georgia have any notable impacts on the storms that form up here?

This post is an example of why i love being on this board. I learn more about the weather than i ever would anywhere else.

As i just made my post, it looks like the sun is trying to come out in Oak Ridge.

I wonder if all of this lingering rain is going to limit the overall severe threat this afternoon. Edit: Dsty beat me to the punch, lol.

10 AM update from MRX: An active severe weather day is expected. The main driver of this event will be a negatively-tilted trough with a strong vort max that will be rotating around a closed upper low, and the associated jet streak at the base of that trough. Over the next few hours, we expect that convection will develop along and west of I-75, where the RAP and HRRR show an axis of higher CAPE values. We are already starting to see this development in NE AL at the moment. This instability axis shifts east into the central Valley during the early afternoon, and into NE TN/SW VA in the late afternoon. Aloft, we will have a surge of dry and cooler air aloft that will aid in destabilization by steepening midlevel lapse rates. In the 12Z OHX sounding, we are seeing values of 7.5 C/km, which will be advecting east. Deep shear will be adequate for supercells, and 0-1 km shear values and LCL heights suggest a tornado threat, mainly for areas south of I-40 and east of I-75. However, it is notable that the HREF shows some updraft helicity tracks north of I-40 this afternoon, so a tornado threat can`t be ruled out anywhere. This initial round of storms between 11-4 pm are expected to mainly pose a damaging wind threat with a lower threat of tornadoes, then a second round is expected to develop in the mid to late afternoon near the Plateau, which may be primarily a hail threat as WBZ heights quickly drop as the closed upper low approaches. The HRRR shows this second round crossing our area between 4-8 pm.

What are your thoughts on Friday?

That was the front, so that's it for the severe weather.

Had a good downpour and a few rumbles of thunder in Oak Ridge. Not a lot of wind was at my house.

According to MRX, the high in Oak Ridge was supposed to be 76 degrees. It's 80 degrees with the sun out.

MRX AFD: Discussion: As of 3PM ET temperatures were warming into the low to mid 70`s underneath partly cloudy skies. Radar shows a line of showers and a few thunderstorms developing across middle Tennessee associated with an approaching front. SW low level flow continues to advect a moist and increasingly unstable airmass northward this afternoon with RAP analyzing MLCAPE`s between 500-1000j/kg across the central/southern valley and plateau areas. The front will continue to progress east this afternoon with moisture advection continuing. Expect a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours as this current activity moves into a more favorable airmass situated across east Tennessee. Shear will be more than adequate for updraft organization as deep layer shear increases to 40-50 knots (higher north of I-40). Shear vectors oriented just off the boundary will promote at least some discrete convection and line/bowing segments into the evening. While damaging winds will continue to be the main hazard, the threat of tornadoes certainly shouldn`t be ignored. Shear within the lowest 1km between 15-25 knots along with favorable LCL heights will maintain the tornado risk through the evening, especially south of I-40 where better instability will be located. Additionally, any rotating updrafts will contain a risk of large hail.

The sun is out in Oak Ridge. I can definitely feel the air getting more humid.

Got about 3 inches on my car in Oak Ridge.

Don't have a ruler, but i would guess a little over 1 inch so far in Oak Ridge.

I can confirm that lightning strike. The thunder shook my house. Speaking of which, it's all snow in Oak Ridge now. Heavy quarter size flakes!

Very loud thunder that shook my house in Oak Ridge.

Nickel size flakes mixing in with sleet and rain in Oak Ridge.

Heard on WBIR weather's live video on facebook that people heard thunder and saw lightning in Rockwood and Harriman.

Very heavy sleet in Oak Ridge. It's really loud outside.

Must be the pesky random band of snow.