Runman292

Cold drizzle in Oak Ridge (I moved to Oak Ridge back in May when I married my wife). I hope I get to see some flakes, as I definitely don't expect any meaningful snow on the ground.

That snow hole in Anderson County, lol. That would be something to see the eastern valley get a decent snow to start off winter.

When was the last time that Tennessee was hit with a tropical storm?

MRX: Tomorrow, we have a southward sagging cold front that will drop down out of the Ohio River Valley. This front is associated with an upper level low across Quebec. With the front to our north and the flattening high to our south, zonal flow will be in place across the region. We`ve got two areas to watch for shower and storm development tomorrow. We should see showers and storms redevelop along the cold front, to our north, tomorrow afternoon and drift down into southwest VA and northeast TN by early evening. The other area to watch will be across the central and northern Cumberland Plateau. Several CAMs show showers and storms developing across western TN/KY early tomorrow afternoon and progressing eastward through the day and onto the Plateau by early evening. These showers and storms develop due to an impulse moving out of the Central Plains tomorrow morning and riding along the cold front. The better dynamics will be well of to our north but we will be on the extreme southern fringe of the upper jet. We may be close enough to get enough upper level support to see a few strong to possibly severe storms from early evening through midnight. 850 mb flow is also marginal with westerly flow around 20 to 30 kts. So if we do get the upper support, some storms have the potential to become strong to severe as instability will be moderate with MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. If we don`t see the upper support, we should still see showers and storms move through but they will be more of the garden variety and shorter lived. Having said that, even these garden variety storms can produce hail and gusty winds given enough instability but the better chances of seeing anything severe would come from longer lived cells. The main threat area looks to be along I-40 and northward. The SPC has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather for tomorrow. The main threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Here’s a paragraph from MRX’s latest AFD in terms of the Tuesday timeframe: Tuesday into Wednesday there is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to pattern evolution and timing. Monday`s cold front will be to our south but a new system will be developing across the Great Plains. As an area of low pressure develops across the Plains, Monday`s front will transition into a warm front which may lift north through our area during the day Tuesday. This warm front will be an area of focus for showers and storms but it`s position is uncertain at this time. Then, the cold front associated with the low will sweep through our area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, providing additional chances for rain and storms. It`s too early to go into much more detail at this time due to the aforementioned model uncertainty. Will keep an eye on this setup though as we could see some severe weather if things come together. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower 70s across northern areas and low 80s across the southern TN Valley.

So even though there is plenty of sun, the dew points still aren’t rising enough? I wish there was a way for me to learn more about this stuff and understand everything.

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t understand why the threat for severe weather is limited today. It’s a beautiful morning with very little clouds. Doesn’t there need to be mostly cloudy and rain for instability to be limited?

Also, just out of curiosity, what is the significance of a triple point?

I found the graphic on their Facebook page.

In a span of 30-45 minutes, it’s gone from cloudy to mostly sunny in South Knoxville. There’s not a lot of clouds now. I have a bad feeling about this.

Here’s the latest graphic from MRX:

I’m hoping that cell in Polk county weakens, because it looks like it’s heading in the direction of my place.

Tornado Watch for Southeast TN until 2:00 AM.

The pre cold front storms are entering Arkansas now.

Where is the warm front now?

I got a question. What is this showing?

Here’s MRX’s latest AFD concerning Sunday. Next the severe weather: Questions remain how far N the surface warm front will lift Sunday evening. There is agreement that it at least reaches the southern plateau/southern valley by 00Z before surging N immediately ahead of the cold front closer to 06Z. How much of the CWA can get into the warm sector will be key to how widespread the tornado threat can be. The southern plateau and southern valley continues to have the greatest tornado risk with at least a few hundred joules of surface based CAPE developing after 00Z behind the surface warm front. Shear in the vicinity of this boundary will be extreme with 0-1 Km SRH of 600-800+ m2/s2, 0-1 Km shear of 50+ kts, and 0-6 Km shear of 80-100 kts per latest NAM forecast soundings for CHA. As would be expected in this environment, hodographs are sickle shaped. It will not take much surface CAPE, combined with projected low LCL heights, to see tornadoes in this environment. A couple of strong, long track tornadoes will also be possible, especially in discrete cells that can form ahead of the main line and cross over the warm front. The current SPC day 3 outlook has an enhanced risk across the the S plateau through SE TN, but would not be surprised to see this upgraded to moderate. With questions remaining how far N the surface warm front can move Sunday evening, the tornado threat appears much less at this time from the N plateau through NE TN and SW VA, however widespread damaging winds and pockets of large hail will occur with the strongest cells as the QLCS crosses. As mentioned earlier, rough timing of all this is 00-06Z, so brought pops back to categorical before tapering off from W to E after 06Z.

In the latest update from the SPC, the 5% Tornado probability has expanded into the Eastern Valley.

This morning’s short term AFD from MRX: Moving into/through Wednesday, conditions across the TN Valley will improve as the day progresses with the aforementioned low clouds scting out to favor low cu and ample heating amongst sustained sly/swly moisture advection. With that, did keep pops mentionable albeit low during peak heating as iso/sct convection is possible once convective temps are reached (highs in the 70s to low 80s), with low confidence in placement. Meanwhile the synoptic pattern really starts to amplify as a fast moving H5 wave/trough dives out of Canada across the Northern Rockies into the Plains, resulting in surface cyclogenesis across MO/IL. This deepening surface low will propel a fast moving cold front into a very moist/unstable warm sector over the OH Valley late Monday evening with ample convection to accompany. This frontal convection will then race across the Plateau, through the Great Valley, and into the Southern Appalachians around sunrise Thursday. Profiles in the warm sector across East TN are fairly impressive ahead of the convection (despite the timing) with very steep lapse rates amidst deep dry air and unidirectional/strong sheer. As for hazards, nothing is off the table as large hail and damaging winds are certainly the primary threats, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as some embedded rotations are likely. Instability does look to wain closer to daybreak as the line of convection moves east, mainly just on diurnal trends, therefore would expect some gradual weakening closer to the NC line. All said, SPC has upgraded areas generally west of I75 to an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms, which is where instability/shear are maximized, while the remainder of the area is essentially favored in the Slight Risk Category. As for timing specifics, the CAMs seem to be in fairly good agreement with only one slower outlier. Typically these fronts outperform as far as speed/timing thus leaned away from the slower outlier thereby favoring a fast fropa between midnight and 5-6AM eastern time.

That line of storms still had a lot of energy moving through East TN. It was lightning strikes galore at my place in South Knoxville. Power kept going off and on.

I got a question. When was the last significant severe weather outbreak in East TN? Is it April of 2011?

I’ve been staying over at my parents’ place in southern Campbell county, and all we got were patches of a very light dusting.

Interesting that the SPC includes East TN in the 15% probability of severe weather, while MRX doesn’t seem to be concerned about seeing severe storms on Wednesday in their latest disco.

I’m probably going to have to put it on hold until next season. I got enough snow today to make me happy.