Runman292

In the latest update from the SPC, the 5% Tornado probability has expanded into the Eastern Valley.

This morning’s short term AFD from MRX: Moving into/through Wednesday, conditions across the TN Valley will improve as the day progresses with the aforementioned low clouds scting out to favor low cu and ample heating amongst sustained sly/swly moisture advection. With that, did keep pops mentionable albeit low during peak heating as iso/sct convection is possible once convective temps are reached (highs in the 70s to low 80s), with low confidence in placement. Meanwhile the synoptic pattern really starts to amplify as a fast moving H5 wave/trough dives out of Canada across the Northern Rockies into the Plains, resulting in surface cyclogenesis across MO/IL. This deepening surface low will propel a fast moving cold front into a very moist/unstable warm sector over the OH Valley late Monday evening with ample convection to accompany. This frontal convection will then race across the Plateau, through the Great Valley, and into the Southern Appalachians around sunrise Thursday. Profiles in the warm sector across East TN are fairly impressive ahead of the convection (despite the timing) with very steep lapse rates amidst deep dry air and unidirectional/strong sheer. As for hazards, nothing is off the table as large hail and damaging winds are certainly the primary threats, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as some embedded rotations are likely. Instability does look to wain closer to daybreak as the line of convection moves east, mainly just on diurnal trends, therefore would expect some gradual weakening closer to the NC line. All said, SPC has upgraded areas generally west of I75 to an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms, which is where instability/shear are maximized, while the remainder of the area is essentially favored in the Slight Risk Category. As for timing specifics, the CAMs seem to be in fairly good agreement with only one slower outlier. Typically these fronts outperform as far as speed/timing thus leaned away from the slower outlier thereby favoring a fast fropa between midnight and 5-6AM eastern time.

That line of storms still had a lot of energy moving through East TN. It was lightning strikes galore at my place in South Knoxville. Power kept going off and on.

I got a question. When was the last significant severe weather outbreak in East TN? Is it April of 2011?

I’ve been staying over at my parents’ place in southern Campbell county, and all we got were patches of a very light dusting.

Interesting that the SPC includes East TN in the 15% probability of severe weather, while MRX doesn’t seem to be concerned about seeing severe storms on Wednesday in their latest disco.

I’m probably going to have to put it on hold until next season. I got enough snow today to make me happy.

I don’t have a measuring stick, but it looks like I got about 2 inches in South Knoxville. Thankfully, I don’t have to join the panic room.

Nickel to quarter size flakes in South Knoxville.

Mempho, is there any vacancy left? I might be moving in if Knoxville sees 0 inches of snow while just about everywhere else North, South, West, and East of the city does this weekend.

1. Congrats to the SE valley folks. 2. C’mon snow. Move up north enough for Knoxville to get in on the action. I don’t want to have to join the panic room, lol.

From the MRX disco on Sunday night's event: A brief break from rain chances on Sunday ahead of our next fast moving system, a shortwave moving out of the southern plains Sunday night into Monday. Model soundings are showing profiles conducive to snow, especially north of I-40 and along the Cumberland Plateau. This means that we could see a quick shot of snow as the system moves through. Models continue paint this system as being relatively moisture starved and fast moving, so accumulations look to be pretty limited at this time, remaining below Advisory Criteria. Biggest concern with this system will be the timing of the snow with light snow possibly beginning to accumulate ahead of the Monday morning commute, so while a low end event looks likely as of now, it may cause degraded driving conditions.

I'm actually seeing some flakes in South Knoxville.

Tornado Warning in Rhea, Meigs, and Roane counties until 4:45 PM EST.

Me trying to read the winter discussion thread:

I need to stop thinking that when the SPC mentions the TN Valley in their severe weather outlooks that they're talking about East TN. When I saw Jax's post in the severe weather thread about the upcoming severe weather potential, I thought that the TN Valley wording in the SPC included East TN.

In MRX's latest discussion, the short version is that they will not be issuing any winter weather advisories due to their thinking that the road surfaces will be too warm and the snow won't be heavy enough to stick around on the roads. Their current thinking is 1-1.5 inches in the plateau, 1-3 in the higher elevations in the smokies and Northeast TN/SW Virginia, and maybe a dusting in the valley, all on grassy surfaces.

Can you post a map of how cold those models are?

Be sure to put on some layers if you're going outside right now, lol.

Considering that Knoxville averages 0.4 inches of snow in November, I'd say it was a good little event.

MRX appears to want to wait until there's over an inch on the ground in Knox and other valley locations to include them in the advisory.

Starting to see a light coating on the grass in South Knoxville. It's all snow here now.

MRX issued a special weather statement for the valley counties not in the advisory.