Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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12z OP Euro is a step in the right direction. I-81 corridor would be staring down their first warning criteria event of the year. NW 'burbs probably a solid advisory event, then it looks to get cooler behind the system.
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Notice the trend towards a -NAO and -AO around the 15th, then another bump down around the 19th. That's probably next week's storm shuffling everything towards a better pattern for snow. Wes had a graphic that showed when the NAO and AO are tanking we typically get some slop storm and then about 10 days later we get a cleaner pass. Looks like it may be happening.
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I'm not upset at the looks so far. This time last year it was total lights out.
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The 12z GFS ENS are definitely a step in the right direction. The 1000mb thickness are a touch colder and there is less clustering for the great lakes low. As other have said, we're only a couple of degrees away from a solid early season thump.
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I'm cool with getting all our snow climo between December 20 and Jan 4th. We can torch after that if it's guaranteed White Christmas with even some snow on snow. This is the way.
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Eric Webb is a pretty big warminsta:
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Hmmm, I don't think that's a reporting option in mPING. Might want to contact the devs.
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Snowing again in NE Carroll County. You're going to jackpot Round #2.
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Noice. mPING that stuff.
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I've got snow grains in Reisterstown.
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Snow accumulating in Lineboro and at the cam site.
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Decent vis drop on the Rt. 30 cam. Actual fluff falling from the skies coming for Bentley Springs.
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@mappy the MD DOT Cam on Rt. 30 @ the PA line is snowing. You're gonna get snow! https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=a5ffabd8008200d30050fa36c4235c0a
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12z RAOB from IAD is bone dry up to 700mb...probably hurting things https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/20120912_OBS/
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Thurmont, MD ATTM:
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Finally got AWIPS to work on my home PC, thanks to SteveCop and JWSmith. Really nice stuff. https://github.com/jaredwsmith/nws-unidata-awips-compat You need a subscription from Allisonhouse to get the data, it's $19/month. https://www.allisonhouse.com/awips/configure
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That's a good plot...even the upper percentiles keep the AO near neutral or ever so slightly positive. I think @tombo82685 or @Rainshadow did some research and found that a -AO in December generally correlates to a -AO for most of the winter.
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@mappy we're gonna get some snow today
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One heck of a sunrise this morning. Winter sun rise/set is the best.
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K
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Agreed. The Pacific sets up the incoming trajectory. If it's coming from a bad angle, we're kinda cooked from the start.
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Agreed. December 2005 and 2009 were exceptions in this regard.
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12, 15, 17, or 31 would really calm the room
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