Daniel Boone

The MJO is a problem. Think you and I called the path correctly a couple weeks ago when data was showing it making it to ph 8 and many were buying it, even Masiello. As we discussed also, once those SST'S warm in that area we should be in business, as far a help and not hindrance from it. It still has a chance making it past 7 but, probably die off quickly.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone !

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone

Actually should be pretty Cold ❄️

Hopefully that Nina enhanced Aleutian Ridge nudges East and forms -EPO and ultimately a + PNA along with the bridge blocking. That would git'r done for us .

Could be another 3 weeks western trough, eastern ridge like late October early Nov. Lol. Let's hope not.

Big time Bridge !

Yeah. Very cold here as well. -17 one morning. Just above 10" Snow for December though. One 5 incher a a couple smaller events.

That evolution of the EPS/GEFS actually looks pretty '95-96 ish. Nw to Se oriented Jet Pattern. Several Clipper's and Miller B to Miller A transfer's that Winter. Not likely to have a Winter near carbon copy of that but,ay e a watered down version. Hopefully, would still be enough to give a decent amount of Snow to the area.

Setup looks somewhat like the Feb. '72 Storm, albeit much colder then.

Yeah, wouldn't be surprised parts of the area get hammered. I've saw some heavy Snowfall on the SSW side of a LP with a negatively tilted Trough. In almost all cases, more than modeled.

Hey look, " The false Popett"!

Agree with Cosgrove on the Storm. He's a good Met and an old timer as well

If, the pattern were to follow that 3rd year nina winter verbatim, it would be fairly cold here with several snowfalls, albeit they were minor events, generally 1-4 inches.

Mild late Nov. but quickly progressed cold trough in East. This maps centered Nov. 29. Check out Dec. 2. Trough already in East. https://vortex.plymouth.edu/wxp/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1975&mm=11&dd=29&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=912x650&pg=web

Yeah, exactly the problem. Hoping it wraps back and presses on down. Could be the Pac jet fighting it from pressing on down on ensembles. Da** Nina. Masiello thinks late Nov. Early Dec. will mirror 1975 until the MJO moves into p. 7 and traverses thru 8-1 and flips pattern to cold snowy East. Obviously he feels confident it will make it to cold Phases. He also thinks HLB will be in place. You know my thoughts regarding the MJO. IF a strong PAC Jet gets established, it'll be hard to alter with help from MJO even in cold phases at low amplitude. Let's hope Masiello is right and my old , rusty has been arse is wrong irt the MJO.

Yeah, sure looks to be the case.

A little more cold ahead of that here and it could wind up being a decent snow storm. Still maybe a couple inches in Valley's with a decent amount up high.

Yep, correlation is pretty decent.

I'm thinking mainly warm phases until SST'S warm further East. However, low amp may be the case, and other Drivers (east aligned Nina Ridge and HLB) may trump.

I brought that up couple months ago on twitter regarding what I thought would be a pretty good bet the nina enhanced PAC Ridge would be further east than typical due to warmer SST'S further East. I got ridiculed by a couple guy's. One weenie and the other, the self deemed best Met ever. Anyone can guess who that is. Say's things backwards sometimes, lol.

Would be nice for January to go against the mild grain as well. Maybe a Jan. 2011 ?.?

Seasonal Models are heavily weighted ENSO. PDO State also weighted pretty high. NATL SST'S somewhat along with IO. As far as the AO predictive State , maybe it's derived from past similar Driver parameter setups. I. e., The current Global indices compared with similar past years and their Winter AO State outcome. Rising QBO probably factored in.

Wonder where snowman19 is .? Hmmm, wonder what he's thinking of that big EPO Ridge that just shouldn't be so far east according to his belief regarding the NPAC SST Profile. Lol.

Just a few lt flurries here last night. 32.5 currently. KMRX busted too high on Temps, not surprisingly.