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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Great job ! I like 85-86. Been pondering that one for awhile.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Peak here now in far SWVA.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Some of the greatest harsh Winters of old had early cold. A break late October/early Nov, then pretty much wall to wall cold until Feb. or March. Granted, recent years (20-30) have been different of which many, being the younger generation are going by.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Not classic. Looks rather borderline imo and some forecasts have it going Positive. Also, those warm SST'S off the West Coast and GOA should aid in a + PNA.
  5. Daniel Boone
    CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right. The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, sure hope they're right Buddy. Always worrisome to get a -PNA during a Nina however. Sometimes hard to dislodge, particularly if that Nina enhanced PAC Ridge sets up strong. If we can have a +PNA in place as the -NAO is still going, could be some early snows for sure. Actually, yesterday's EPS was contrary to the Op Euro irt ridge east/trough west .
  7. Daniel Boone
    Agree. That's a pretty strong indicator actually. Of course, that goes along with other driving mechanisms as well ; feeding off each other.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Foliage is near peak here. Although, there is what we call a "2nd peak" as Oaks in general are a bit later. Was over in the Tri Cities last week and they were a good bit behind us.
  9. Daniel Boone
    The much needed Rainfall didn't show up here . That really hurt. Only 0.02" ! Monthly Total of 0. 22". Terrible. There was a rather large area of rain and storms heading this way last Evening that made it to the Plateau before energy began getting pulled south toward Chattanooga. I told my Wife then that we were going to get shafted although, still thought we'd get maybe a 10th to a quarter. FIRE DANGER !!!
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, a -PNA pattern looking pretty likely to setup for a while. Hopefully Pattern will revert back to dominant+PNA in November and we can get blocking in conjunction. May wind up with a 10-11 type Nina Winter. No big Snows but cold with quite a bit of nickle and dime events. Had a month solid of snow cover.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, it sure does.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Was Winter 2010-11 or 95-96 well coupled ? Pronounced blocking threw those Nina's off kilter.
  13. Daniel Boone
    30.9 here this morning. 28 at Lee County Airport. 20's were reported in Valley locations within the County. 30-32 Ridgetop and elevated areas.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Models continue to advertise that fairly consistently. Reminds me of October '89 somewhat. Snowshowers all day the 20th with off and on dustings at my home in Pennington gap then. That November and December was cold. December record cold. Pattern flipped very last day of that Month to cold west/warm east for rest of Winter followed by a cold Spring, particularly April.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, there's others I'm sure but, as you said earlier, many times the pattern flips for Winter. As of now IO forcing is supportive for Eastern trough , as wave lengths change we need that forcing to change too as you know ( probably why many times pattern flips for Winter). Even if it doesn't, it's still not always set in stone to flip trough west as other drivers can throw a monkey wrench in that . Hopefully, ECMWF -NAO Forecast verifies. Of course we all know how accurate they are when predicting that.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Same here .
  17. Daniel Boone
    I'm sure many on here notice, the first scattered Frost are never forecasted or mentioned as even a possibility. I don't quite understand that as If I were working with the NWS I would at least mention the possibility in mountain Valley's when conditions are like they've been the last few mornings.
  18. Daniel Boone
    2000-01 was a nina and featured a much below avg October. Fairly cold Winter for the area albeit rather dry with not alot of Snow. 95-96 cold late October and November. 77-78 featured measurable snow Oct. 13 down to 1600 ft during Squalls. However, enso was neutral that Winter. However, as you alluded, it seems early snow/cold has been an omen of late.
  19. Daniel Boone
    The big la nina pac ridge very prominent. Decent Greenland blocking. If there was a y semblance of a southern stream that would be a pretty good setup. Also, shift that pac ridge east and quite possibly some northern stream action could produce.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, considering if it's not hot with it and if September wasn't dry. My location was received about half the average for September so, hopefully won't affect them too much. Although,It has some as some leaves are brown, particularly on edges. Maples are coloring up good so far.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, you're fortunate to get in on a decent part of the western flank. Only 0.21" here. Terrible !
  22. Daniel Boone
    Same here. Although, November may turn rather cold 2nd half.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, depressing. I was concerned it may shift east. Should of figured with that boundary sitting off the coast.
  24. Daniel Boone
    35 here yesterday morning with patchy frost. Some Valley locations in Lee County reported widespread frost and low 30's. Not as cold this morning as wind kept temps up some.
  25. Daniel Boone
    40 here this A. M.. May be patchy frost in the morning, especially in sheltered valley's.
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