Daniel Boone

My belief it is mainly the SST'S in the 50-50 area irt the problem regarding it. I wholeheartedly agree alot of complexities.

Oh, definitely agree with that as well. I've been retired a long time now and don't have as much experience with advanced tools in the field they have now but, will say the Greenland block -NAO hook-up is more prominent in recent years. The cause is not completely understood, mainly speculation. I just thought Cape pointed out something that actually makes sense. Why are the 50-50 lows not developing or holding like it seems they should ? Could be SST'S in that area ,QBO etc.. who knows for sure. But, we do know, there's cause and effect.

the 50-50 low is whats been missing. thats the problem as cape's alluded to in other posts.

Yep! I would of loved to of seen that fall ! That much snow in 6 hours on a saturated ground...

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! Forecasts were for light amounts.

It does seem to of hurt more than help lately. 10-11 it played a big role in that Nina being cold/ snowy. Year before last it did seem to help some. I think alot of the problem is where we are not getting the usual 50-50 Low with it. If you add it to the equation, these systems cutting would go so far only to be shunted SE even when they come in too far into the West . Also, without that 50-50 the block can connect with the SER, as has been the case quite often in recent years. The culprit could be the SST's off Newfoundland not being conducive for LP there.

The warm almost always verifies.

Insult to injury. Might as well be warm so can get outside some.

Yep, exactly. Get strong west based -NAO and still rain. The ultimate let down.

Yeah, may rush in soon enough to changeover and still produce measurable snow ❄️

Desperately need a 50-50 or thereabouts to stop these things from cutting. If not, a further east PNA Ridge.

Not surprising, unfortunately. Hopefully, the cold will crash and still produce a measurable snowfall on backside.

Yeah, it's confused, lol

Unless it phased and pulled coastal back . With a block in place, that's a possibility. Cold would be wrapped under the GL LP.

Exactly Odds are against that for sure.

Yeah, kind of puts you in mind of a couple of the systems in the winter of 95-96.

Yeah, it continues the cutter idea. Hopefully it's wrong.

Makes perfect sense.

Exactly !

Really need that TPV to assert under the block to help stave off that thing from cutting. That's the piece of the Puzzle that's missing and hurting the portrait from being a masterpiece. Strong LP under that block, whether 50-50 , 60-40, or even 70-30 for that matter should get it done. The Blizzard in the Dakota's is an example of a Storm cutting and going toward the block before stalling. A strong enough system will cut without a strong enough mechanism to weaken or shunt it.

Let's just hope the Ensembles turn out to be the winner. Tonight's 0z runs should show whether or not the trend is for a cutter. Really need that TPV to assert itself under that block to stave that off. The Blizzard that hammered the Dakota's moved toward the block before stalling. You'd think it would have began weakening under the duress and start sliding SE.

That was the trademark of the middle 1970's Nina's. Cutter after cutter, rain ending as flurries the cold/dry. Rinse and repeat. Hated those Winter's. You guys on the eastern slopes got lucky a couple times with cad and a coastal that was just far enough west in the '74-75 Nina.

Nina the Ninja .

That's been a concern of mine as I noticed modeling showing LP trying to close in on Alaska. Definitely want any vort to stay outa there. However, strange things have happened even with it there, particularly if enough blocking is in place in the NAO Domain. So, hopefully blocking will reassert and we keep somewhat of a +PNA in conjunction.

It's possible for Blizzard conditions even as is with the strong Arctic winds and heavy upslope on backside if it comes to fruition. Man , if timing is right, some of our major snowstorms come when Arctic fronts have just came thru as a Storms rides up that front. If that happens, Hammer time!!!