Daniel Boone

Need it over Alaska and the GOA Low over the Aleutians.

We gotta get rid of that GOA Low and slow down the Pac Jet. The sooner the better . I think, providing the MJO is in cold Phases we'd be alright then. As is , strong Blocking may do the trick.

Models have really struggled this late fall/ early Winter. Carvers gap in the Tn Valley Sub brought up something that could be right. Feedback in The Pac NW. Watch the Cycle's and check out the Runs that keep the East colder. Look at the difference in the PAC NW. Also, Webb has some rather interesting Ideas as well. We , no doubt need to shake any semblance of a GOA Low as we all know but, it is possible to work around it until we do. Chill covered those. The MJO back in Ph 8 hopefully helps as well.

Hopefully the Ridge doesn't do like the guy in thaht Song, I get knocked down, but I get up again, ain't nothin gonna slow me down ". Lol. I just had to man !

That happened in '95-96 as we know. It would Snow and be cold a few Days, warm up rain and even flood some a time or two then cold and snow again. Blocking was the big difference maker that Winter. If we can get strong persistent blocking, I think we'll score some good Snow Events.

The Pennington gap Data for the past 15 years has gotten flat out terrible. We've addressed that before. It's really showing it's print on the Model's now too. The Station Siting is terrible and the Observer's are awful. It's Located at the Sewer Plant now. I'll get a Picture one day and you'll see how off the Siting is from Official Guidelines.

Yeah. I see you found it. Yeah, that would have been the 2 I recall although Pennington itself got 6 from the first one. I don't recall the Feb. One's being what is shows but could of been at that location. I was thinking more 70s in Feb but apparently it was a long stretch of upper 60s and a 70 there. As you can see snowfall was below average. Average in Pennington then was 19.7" as I recall.

Here's Pennington. It was recorded at the Water Plant right on the banks of Powell River so, doesn't do Pennington gap itself justice really. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/past-weather/Pennington gap VA

Here's data from national and State perspective. It's just Temperature. As you can see the Winter, Dec, Jan and Feb averaged slightly below normal. February alone was slightly above. Colder the further west in Southern Plains. I used to have the Data for Pennington. They've changed their Format for Stations Data so will have to find and look it up, also KTRIS. I used to have my own but lost it unfortunately while relocating. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/mapping/110/tavg/198402/3/rank

Yeah, Webb I think it was commented today of how the deep trough this weekend should speed up the development of the -NAO. Someone posted it on the SE Sub.

Yep. If that occurs it'll be a pretty good indication of a pretty solid, great Winter imo.

Yeah, if they don't the Warmanista Drums will continue to beat loud.

1983-84 was below average Snowfall here and at KTRI. Had one bonafide Snowstorm in January. 6 inches. Another more scattered banded one where just east of Pennington gap got 5 inches while Pennington only an inch.. Other than that mainly a couple dustings to an inch. February had some very warm days in the 70's . March had one Storm with thunder snow but was rain snow mixed below 2000 feet.

Yeah. Could be MJO related if some Models are correct in their back into Ph.8 Depiction. Rossby and Kelvin Waves are really throwing a monkey wrench in the Guidance looks like.

My Sister used to live near you in Humboldt. I recall Ice Storms seemed more prevalent there than here back then (80's).

Yeah I disagree with some of their changes. JKL still issues frost/freeze advisories for first widespread of Season.

Yeah, 2013-14 was a cold, snowy January and into February.

I agree completely man. NEPAC and western ridge squeeze play of the Pac Jet forcing downsloping imo. Also helping force that ridge to elongate eastward somewhat. Allows for Chinooks. If HLB sets up , even if that Pac Jet atmospheric ruver were to continue, it's going slow and back and buckle the Flow to some degree, whether alot or some depending on Blocking Strength.

Surely not, lol

My bad, I said Golf Matthew. Sorry man, I'd forgot which one asked. You're welcome !

I was actually replying to Golf as he questioned what the cold phases were. As far as the lw pattern, yeah, I agree although we do have that Aleutian HP but not the typical Nina Ridging up to there. Odd Pattern. Probably a product of the Waves you mentioned earlier messing with the MJO. Interference.

Winter as a whole MJO Cold Phases: 8 1 2 .

Yeah. Would be nice to have a full blown MJO Ph8 Pattern.

Yeah, there's apparently some mixed up data as there's different locations from different Modeling. I think the Kelvin and Rossbys are alot of our problems as Jax pointed out. Makes sense.