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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Right with you in those thoughts man. Yeah, should still be plenty enough cold in Canada this go around. Eastern Canada looks loaded last I checked.
  2. Daniel Boone
    If KTRI had gotten the Cold that was just to it's west, would finish below average for the Month.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, the Great Valley definitely has a tough time without CAA down this side of Apps. There have been instances of enough cold seepage down the Valley from the NE. However, usually that occurs with heavy precip rates helping bring the cold air down. A big banana HP to our North can get it done ala., the Spires depiction but, generally without alot of cold to pull down you need weak winds, low onset DP and quick uptick in Rates.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Well, those SST'S in that area is the likely cause . However, that area has cooled some and we are seeing convection flaring in 7-8 eq. Pac area. This tells me the MJO will hit P8 and may even slow thereafter and probably traverse 1-2 at low amp or go into COD. Just my wag.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Got this from MA Sub. Not saw much about this Model but, check out that Feb 5 depiction. Perfect for this area. Quote
  6. Daniel Boone
    Perfect for this area.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Pretty good back off looks like. Appears to be maybe showing a semblance of a SW hanging back trough. I don't know if Weekly version has any hanging back with energy in the Southwest like the regular Euro but if so, could be what we're seeing.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Congrats on the appetizer there man ! I'm sure you're stoked for the biggie next week.
  9. Daniel Boone
    If we can just will that to encompass the whole area. Temps are going to be marginal for Valleys even if it does. Hopefully low Dews and heavy rates will be realized.
  10. Daniel Boone
    You didn't mean anything wrong man. It's alright brother.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Aa far as believing, not that I do but, no different than believing 70 degrees that far out or posting something regarding a mild rainstorm. Are you criticising any of that ? As far as DT, I'm not a fan of him personally ( attitude problem) but, he is still overall a good Meteorologist.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Think you nailed alot of the Problem.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Without coming across being pompous in any way, I've been in the Meteorology Field for 40 years. I do follow Ensembles more at range but, I also know they're still just Model output and are as good as what goes into them. Carvers covered the Computer aspect very well. I also have alot of experience under my belt and made valid points in that Post. Last Season under the same Pac Pattern as now you would not be getting the cool shot and Mountain Snow nor the several days cooler stretch. More than likely a bulging SER and very mild Temps. The enhanced STJ is something factoring in the equation as well. As far as Pattern Change to dominate Eastern Trough , yeah that looks to be later as most agree on.
  14. Daniel Boone
    He's obviously buying the Euro Solution. Feb. 5-6 is timeframe he listed.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Let's not forget other Drivers can mitigate or alter the typical downstream affects of the MJO and western PAC. We just had a SSW that is already starting to show it's fingerprint. Feb 5-6 looks like a legit threat. Higher elevations as early as tomorrow evening should cash in in this " warm, gloom and doom" Period.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Excerpt from DT: INCREASING THREAT FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR TENN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FEB 4-5 3:45 PM · Jan 27, 2024 ·
  17. Daniel Boone
    Convection finally been flaring in Central eq Pac. Should continue to PH. 8 imo.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Here ya go guy's. https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g
  19. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, we have a couple things warring against the MJO Phase. SSW affects instigating blocking. The Central Pac( modoki area) Convection enhancing the STJ. Even though the MJO is in the western area this helps to counter it.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Problem with official Records was KTRI just to your East only recorded around 10 inches as they had mixing issues quite a bit. That was a Kingsport west and North Bonanza.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Ph 7 has been good in Ninos.
  22. Daniel Boone
    I had a Weather Diary from the late '70's that I recorded daily obs; rain , snow, highs and lows. There was over 2 month stretches of Snow cover on the North facing slopes and in Shady areas in both Winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 here in Lee County. I'm sure John can attest to that in his local. On a more recent occurrence, Feb. 2015 had Snow cover from Feb. 12 to March 8 th on North facing areas and shades. Solid cover of 4" or more from Feb. 16th to March 1.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully, we get a surprise before then. Even a 1-2 inch deal would dull the 2 week snow drought. Who knows, maybe the SSW induced blocking will speed things up a bit.
  24. Daniel Boone
    It would be interesting to check out that Diary. Good stuff !
  25. Daniel Boone
    Remember it well. Post the pic if you can.
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