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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, we have a couple things warring against the MJO Phase. SSW affects instigating blocking. The Central Pac( modoki area) Convection enhancing the STJ. Even though the MJO is in the western area this helps to counter it.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Problem with official Records was KTRI just to your East only recorded around 10 inches as they had mixing issues quite a bit. That was a Kingsport west and North Bonanza.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Ph 7 has been good in Ninos.
  4. Daniel Boone
    I had a Weather Diary from the late '70's that I recorded daily obs; rain , snow, highs and lows. There was over 2 month stretches of Snow cover on the North facing slopes and in Shady areas in both Winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 here in Lee County. I'm sure John can attest to that in his local. On a more recent occurrence, Feb. 2015 had Snow cover from Feb. 12 to March 8 th on North facing areas and shades. Solid cover of 4" or more from Feb. 16th to March 1.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully, we get a surprise before then. Even a 1-2 inch deal would dull the 2 week snow drought. Who knows, maybe the SSW induced blocking will speed things up a bit.
  6. Daniel Boone
    It would be interesting to check out that Diary. Good stuff !
  7. Daniel Boone
    Remember it well. Post the pic if you can.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Those late 70's Winter's were something to have witnessed for us old timer's Howard. Without Pic's, Video's etc..many wouldn't believe how incredible they were.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Wow , melting fast here. Had 5-5.5 this morning now about 3. Hit 52 here as had a few periods of Sun. Currently 51.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that was the point I was making in my original post regarding Ph 7 being different during Nino that I thought you had researched. Makes sense when looking at the typical Nino 500 mb Pattern really. Quite probable the reason p 7 shows as slightly warmer in the east in the full MJO Chart. Nino Years would scale back the Temps from what would be if they weren't included.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Thanks for posting that John. I suspected something like that.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, my mistake there. i think may of been discussed in same thread. It was Webb about the MJO 7 deal.
  13. Daniel Boone
    GaWx posted about how SE US Snow was more prevalent during Ph 7 MJO during Nino's. Probably something to do with the STJ and typical blocking during El Nino.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Verbatim that's a major Winter storm for the mid South and Tennessee Valley if it is cold enough if that depiction came to fruition.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Thanks for posting that . Very interesting ! My Grandfather told me about a big Snow during the middle 1930's. I'll look that one up in our local Paper. The biggest on Record for here was March 2, 1942. 3 Feet recorded in downtown Pennington gap. I wish our Paper was online.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, greater odds as the plots show. Nothing like ph. 5 and 6 though. I think where he got that was a study and data GaWx recently presented irt the Southeast. The research showed the SE had greater instances of Snow during Ph 7 El Nino Years. The STJ and typical blocking is more than likely the difference maker.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Looking at what Holston pointed out I think the Model is in Error here. That central Pacific Convection should help change that outcome. Also, with it firing now, in my mind, that should mute the current MJO Phase some.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Exactly John. That is the way measurements used to be taken. If it fell at night they wouldn't measure until they got up or they'd wait as you said, until it ended. The average seasonal Snowfall for Pennington gap in the 1950 to 1980 period was 21 " . Records were recorded by a long time observer. He would measure like you said. They would also wait until snow ended too. If they were taken like they are supposed to be now, average then would have been 25-30" there.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Problem is, Data is not trustworthy. Going back through records there's quite a bit of missing data, particularly snowfall. I'd bet my life there's been times of many more days than that. I know Knoxville doesn't get Snow as much as up here but, they've had much longer stretches. The late '70s are a good case. I kept Records for my area in Lee County then and there was a period of over a month and a half of 6 inches or more on the ground in 1977-78. Well over a foot in shaded, north facing areas.
  20. Daniel Boone
    They've forecasted too high for Temps every day for the last 5-6 days. As we know, Model's don't do well when there's snow cover.
  21. Daniel Boone
    I saw that Tweet. He gave his reasoning too. Actually, has Merritt. Same IOD affects are different in February and March than December and January.
  22. Daniel Boone
    We had a month and a half of solid snowcover of greater than 6 inches lin Pennington gap in the Winter 77-78. There was well over a foot in shaded areas and north facing slopes then.
  23. Daniel Boone
    I wonder how trustworthy their Data is. We all know how flawed alot of it is, in particular Snowfall data. I'm pretty sure Knoxville had alot more than that in the late 70's.
  24. Daniel Boone
    With the Strat deal , there's going to be wonky solutions upcoming.
  25. Daniel Boone
    High yesterday 14 low this morning -3. Had reports if 5-10 below in the Valleys.
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