Daniel Boone

Coz has always been a good long Ranger. Could be right about last half. If so, even with the mild period, it would turn out overall a cold Winter, especially going by this Era's Standards. Glad you had a decent Score over there with this one buddy ! You were under the same bands that moved over here.

A Modification of the current one would work actually. Pop that HP on east into Alaska and get rid of any semblance of a GOA Low and strengthen Blocking upstream. That way the Clipper's and Miller B's would travel further South. The worry of a complete reshuffle is we never get back to a base Eastern Trough. What's really needed is a tall Western Ridge connecting with, in conjunction with or connecting with the Alaskan HP. A -AO as well. Another, although not neccesary but helps, is formidable blocking in the NAO Domain, preferably with a 50-50 or thereabouts Low. That would work for us. An active STJ in the Mix would raise the odds for heavy Snowfalls. It has been weak or lacking in those Area's during this cold Stretch.

Does anyone know why the board is not allowing me to post Pictures. It says only allows 121 kb size. I can't get them that small without cutting most of pic away and very small.

I think the strength and staying power(duration) you mentioned Yesterday may be a strong Indicator irt whether we have a great Winter or not as you mentioned Yesterday. Historical backing. Even '95-96 had a mild stretch mid December before going cold by Christmas. 89-90 had extreme cold the entire Month rhat flipped the last Day to a long mild period and stayed mild overall. The great '70's Winter's as example here, featured a couple mild periods of between 1-3 Days , and those weren't very mild at that ! I remember January of '78 the only one in Pennington that Month and it was one Day. 38 for the High !

1.5" here this Morning. Some melting underneath so may have been a bit more. It stopped for several hours last night before a period more this morning. KMRX is requesting Reports. Please send them in.

Just started snowing steady here. 30.2 degrees.

Wow !

As of now things are looking better irt amounts provided no dry intrusion. Area's that were ti be Virga now are seeing Snow reach the ground. Maybe it's the heavier rates aloft Models may of missed that saturated sooner or could be some lift pulling more moisture up from a fairly moist lower Level and helping with saturation.

Welcome to the Board !

Decenber and January 2011 and January 2014 had several. I totally see your point though Holston. They are rare anymore.

If it does like last time, it may even touch five and then crawl through 6. That would probably be a Months worth of crap for us if Blocking doesn't mitigate it.

Yeah, COD heading toward six looks like on the Chart and that was the 8th so, extrapolating that course would be coming into six now. Sat Imagery as Carvers alluded looks rather undeterministic irt where really.

The MJO is basically a spread out cluster or clusters if you will. It not being very defined in a single area is making it's effects on the Pattern harder to pinpoint. Forcing is at a wider Area so to speak. If that consolidates into 8 later in the Month , or whatever phase, that typical Phase outcome should become most evident providing Other Driver's don't overpower it, imo.

Same here. 34.8 Degree's as of 9:35 PM

Yeah. I can remember back in my Day's of the Criteria being that plus Temps below 20 F.

39 here now with lt rain. It was snowing on Stone Mountain at 2500ft and up. As well as Wallen Ridge just south of Pennington gap at around 2800ft awhile ago when the band of Precip was heaviest.

It's beginning to look like it.

Oh, I didn't know. I don't understand people like that.

He may of thought those were minus marks before the numbers Larry.

As usual, got some decent Year's snow wise but some not so good as well. One great one (2011) One terrible (1990) .

Yeah, terrible. Definitely not festive in the Weather Department unless you're into that kind of Christmas. That would be samey as a Winter wx lover enjoying Snow on the 4th of July, lol. That Winter had below average Snowfall.

Yep. That Aleutian HP is where we need the LP to be. Need that HP over Alaska and need that LP near the GOA to move to Aleutians. As is, that Pac Jet's going to roar between the Goa Low and the Epac and West Coast Ridge. if it comes in strong enough it'll flood the US with Pacific Air and downslope off the Rockies spreading warmth. If it were to blast in further North it could potentially flood western and central Canada scouring the cold out. Kentucky Post was right on with that post about needing that Ridge to link with the Alaskan HP.

Yeah, been watching a live Cam near Petersburg where there's around 4 inches in areas of grass and bushes and it's hammering big Flakes.

South or Southwest. SE Virginia is getting hammered now. Been watching Live Cam from Colonial Heights, near Petersburg. 4 inches and pouring big Flakes. Truly rare for there this early.

Yeah. I had noticed that vort in the GOA last Week and thought that typically hurts us but, was weak at the time and looked like was going to be shunted eastward and then maybe travel down the Jet SEward. Some Model's are indicating a gradual +TNH developing as the Aleutians Alaskan Ridge moves over Alaska and expands over the Arctic Domain. Sooner the better for us if you want the real Cold and much higher Snow Probability.