Itstrainingtime

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I was reading one of Ji’s plays out of his playbook.   It was a nice event.   Back to a 7” snowpack.  

Well done...it seemed out of character for you. 

29 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That Gfs is really coming around.


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I hope for once the GFS is right. It has been AWFUL this winter - I mean, on the 0z run last night it was still showing 6" for me overnight. I ended up with less than 2". For the 2 big storms we did get this year it was the last to the party. I'm more trusting of the NAM these days than the GFS. Hopefully the Para is better. 

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

3.6” total

things have tapered off 

You did better than you thought you would.

Unless you were being sarcastic last night with your 1-2" call.

1.8" here. Season total stands at 27.2". 

@Mshaffer526 What's happening over near the Gap Town Clock? 

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Who’s planning on staying up the whole event ?

40 years ago, me. Today? Not a chance.  

Very light snow started here about 30 minutes ago. Car topper so far.

@losetoa6 Welcome to our thread and please keep posting here as you wish - you and @Blizzard of 93 are the board's eternal optimists, so you both might as well post in the same thread.  

5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Howdy gents (and ladies if there are any out there), I'm a long time lurker of various weather forums but decided to finally take the plunge and join.  Been keeping fairly detailed weather data going on ten years now for my location here just south of Mount Joy in Lancaster County.  I live at the base of Chickies Ridge (Chiques if ya like), on the north side, at a low elevation of only ~360 ft.  I'm prone to some pretty decent inversions on calm clear winter nights where I'll often be 5-10 degrees colder than up on the ridge.  Of course, the opposite is true in all other scenarios, which is the vast majority of the time ha.  Anyway, now that I told you a bit about myself, let's get to tracking.  Too many impulses coming through in the next week to not cash the goods on something.  Seemed like the perfect time to join, cheers! 

Welcome! You are close to me - I live just outside of Maytown on the Mount Joy side very close to the air strip. 

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It seems like more focus is put on this initial wave tonight over the second one Friday and that "round 2" looks more like the feature we see showing Sunday. By the way I'm shocked where guidance has ended up with tonight's wave, SHOCKED I tell ya lol. 

This thing currently pegged for next Tuesday looks like a pretty significant storm. We have the GFS and Euro trying to cut it today. In the case of the Euro, trying to cut into a 1040 high that starts at hr 138 sitting on the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario. I'm not sure why it's such a freezing rain bomb given the thermals. Hr 150 which caps the height of a 6 hr period of significant precip (mostly ZR), has marginal 700 and 850 temps (still at or just below zero) and majority of 925 and 2m temps in the teens to low 20s. In other words, probably a sleet/snow bomb. Honestly like the Canadian's evolution here as general theme is a bigger storm attacking solid high pressure to the north. 

Speaking of themes, there have been a lot of attempts at cutting in this D6-8+ timeframe this winter. That's where the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm started. 

It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong. 

Horst: 

Wednesday Update: A weak system will slide by to our south tonight w/ intermittent snow btwn 8pm - 8am. Temps aloft are good for making dendrites, so it may do well, despite other limitations. 2 - 4" is a good bet along the Rt-30 corridor...perhaps up to 5" on some SoLanco hills.

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

Zwyts is a classic.  He complained a few years back about seeing all the people from Lancaster posting pictures of snow on their deck.  Then he returned as Deckpic.

In between Zwyts and Deck Pic he was "Westminster Deathband" which I loved as well. 

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

Yeah, let’s lock in that GFS run!  Very nice for the southern crew.

You have the best name on the entire board - hands down. 

Resume weather talk...

Just now, canderson said:

Can we then also blame you for Route 30 being the 2nd ugliest stretch of highway in PA? That Breezewood monstrosity is slightly worse, but only slightly ... 

I mean...the Route 30 bypass opened when I was 5...so I guess...

1 minute ago, canderson said:

So what you're saying is we can blame any snow failures on you?

By default, sure. I've been in Lanco for 56 years, so I've seen enough to blame me for anything.  

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

Back in the early 80s a storm started as snow we might have got a half inch of snow. It turned to sleet, and it was supposed to turn to rain, but never did. We ended up with over 6 inches of sleet. Not fun to shovel.

Interesting. I wonder if I changed to rain being further south? The only memorable weather event for me between 1979 and 1993 was the 2/12/1983 blizzard. We had a nice snowstorm in 1987 but it was a heavy snow with no wind that melted in 2 days. 1983...I had 5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm at the height of the storm with multiple lightning flashes and loud thunder. It was a fairly progressive storm that I still got 24.5" from. Man, if we only would have had a block...

6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

What’s amazing is when you start talking to people who love to rant on and on about how winters were back when they were kids. A large percentage of them were young kids back in the 60s


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I was born in 1965 - so I basically grew up in the 70s. Parents would often tell me during my childhood as a snow lover how much things changed shortly after I was born. 

The 70s were not kind - I watched with despair as the Virginas and Carolinas kept getting smoked while I was looking south through filtered sun. 

Just now, daxx said:

Are being serious?  I still have 3 to 4” snowpack.  I have one bare  spot around pine tree.

I have an average of 6" in protected areas that don't get much or any sun. Most of my backyard is fully exposed and it's nothing but a few small areas. 

6 minutes ago, daxx said:

This is what a lot of us have been looking for. Some big events mixed in with smaller ones. Day ten with 100% snow cover here.  Enjoy!

I'm jealous - my backyard is 75% bare ground.  

Just now, Jns2183 said:

How long did that glacier take to melt?


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Mid to late March as I recall - it wasn't the magnitude of the winter of '94, which I had snow cover for 77 consecutive days. (that's not a typo) 

I hate sleet when it's falling but I appreciate it so much days later when I'm looking at a white instead of green landscape. 

23 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i wouldn't say epic, but the valentines Snow/sleet/ice was interesting for sure

2007...I had 4" of sleet. That was pretty epic.  

28 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Look at that damn snow hole in lanco again.  Its like Voyager shoved his snow dome  due S 60 miles over my casa.  WTF!!  Problem i have w/ it is that the last storm modeled a hole over my house....and the damn thing verified.  UUGGGGHHHHHHH.

I think that snow hole is a result of downsloping from Blue Mountain just to our north and west, and then the upslope of the far eastern Lanco/western Chesco high hills just to our east. 

It's very annoying. 

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll put what i think is a "fun" battle out there as 2 camps seem formed on our board.  

Camp 1 - seems to think too much cold is bad and leads t suppression depression.

Camp 2 - says how much of that modeled cold has come to light in the last few years?

To further the point/debate, I'd love to see stats on % of storms that came north inside of 48 to 72 vs how many ended up south inside same time frame?  Thats what I/some have been driving at. 

I'd wager wmspt's money (since hes got the most snow chips right now) that 75% or more came N and not S in said timeframe.  

I'm definitely in the camp that many more have come north. Off the top of my head, 75% is probably safe - it might be higher than that.

I got tired of saying last year how temps were almost without exception higher than modeled. It happens all the time. I'm saying that as a generalization, not specific to modeled arctic air days out. However, I also agree that a lot of modeled arctic air has modified before it reaches us - January 2018 is a notable exception to that. 

To @Jns2183 point, more times than not it finds ways not to snow than it does for it to snow. We've done remarkably well this winter for a Nina but there have still been several misses that models were showing snow for our area that either didn't come to fruition or we ended up with far less than thought. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

"It looks like it's headed west for sure - fun to track if it happens."

Hence my confused emoji, but I totally agree on the way too early part......

hence my 300 mile move in 1 run post.  NOONE knows whether this cuts for Chicago, or Columbia SC.  500's inspire little confidence (looking at GFS vs EURO. but I'd say that ENS guidance looks more suppressed for GEPS/GEFS vs ridgy on EPS.

 

 

Sorry - it looked like it was headed west for sure ON THAT RUN, as depicted. I'm sorry that I wasn't clear on that part. My bad.

The whole real cold thing before it snows - I somewhat agree with that. But, '96 I was SN+ for hours sitting on 12 degrees. It happened with one of the big boys over the past 10-15 years as well, but in general...too much cold is a bad thing. 

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Its doing better than the GFS's 1 run jump.  That gorilla at 168 ONLY moved 300 miles from 75 miles S of LA coastline to central GA......

It's a lock. 

That's just it - way too early to say where this might be headed. Get us a gorilla and I'll start throwing bananas.