Itstrainingtime

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

His cold disdain also spilled over to snow as well, which as a wx weenie always was a big disappointment.

True, but when he called for a big snowstorm you knew it wasn't wishcasting! 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

The 12Z NAVGEM holds back the southern vort, less or no phase, and slides it off the SC coast.   Congrats Charlotte!  LOL. 

There's that progressive bias! 

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 Lundberg was like Horst. Conservative but he had a warm bias. 

Difference being Lundberg openly admitted hating cold weather, Horst loves it. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Okay...you're on.  I'll say I'm going to exceed that amount.  By how much...who knows.  BTW, you'll never see me report 3.25" because you only officially record snowfall to the nearest tenth of an inch!  So you need to decide if it's 3.2" or 3.3"...haha.

Since you're so confident I'll spot you a big fat 3.3".  

Just now, JTrout said:

I am not familiar with him, when was he active in the weather game or is he still? I like Bernie because he is a PA native and doesn't typically look at surface maps when he does his analysis, just the upper air maps.  I always walk away feeling like I understand a little bit. haha

Joe was still around up until just a year or two ago I believe, he used to be one of the featured bloggers. He was on radio stations down here as well. And at least for a time he posted on the Eastern US weather forums. (the one that proceeded this one) Joe was originally from New England I believe but made his home in State College area. 

I used to love Accu Weather, especially Joe Lundberg. Always thought he was really accurate and seemed to distance himself from the hypsters around him on there. 

4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Thanks, bubbler!  Even that still doesn't look totally horrible.  But yes, certainly a pretty good shift north.

Just for fun I'm going to say you'll be on here Saturday evening reporting 3.25" before you flip. 

Feel free to jump all over me when I'm wrong.  

Just now, Jns2183 said:

 

I’d be willing to bet the low stays below 40N.

Still think there is going to be a world of difference between the 35 miles or so that separates 81 and Lancaster & that anyone between 81 & the turnpike gets 2-4” of snow and a whole crap ton of sleet/freezing rain


. Pro

 

Agree completely. 

Just now, Superstorm said:

I do think we get a nice thump of snow (2 to 3”). However, in classic 80s New Jersey climate storm, the rain will be knocking on the door too soon.


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I'll narrow you down to 2".  I mentioned the other day that 2" always seemed to be the magical number before visibility went up and that godawful sound of pingers commenced. 

On 1/14/2019 at 2:38 PM, canderson said:

I can't wait until we get more snow Thursday night than this weekend.

/ducks

Hmm...

Not saying this is correct, but it is gaining traction. 

Brian, the Euro panels I'm looking at take the low from about Morgantown WV east northeast right over southern PA. Is that pretty accurate?

Horst said on Monday that this storm will go right over us. 

2 minutes ago, JTrout said:

Lancaster country has ten snowfall contours running through it. 1-6 inch spread on the Euro. Not feeling good for the LSV. Overall the Europeans kept us in the game for 0z tonight though.....barely. 

Don't forget some of that is from tonight. 

Just now, canderson said:

I guess the good news is Sunday we can go for a nice walk. 

Lesson here kids: NEVER bet against Eric Hurst. 

 

You have no idea how much disappointment he has saved me over 30 plus years. 

Just now, Superstorm said:

Thinking Horst forecast looking better and better every minute.


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Just now, pasnownut said:

they were never really in this one, so crickets is sorta expected.  

In case you are new here, they dont root on northern snow - or any snow for anyone outside of their village.

That they don't. They could be sitting on 40" and UNV at 5" and yet somehow if UNV got hit they'd be pissed. 

Just now, paweather5 said:

 

Yeah that's a pretty good shift for the worst. 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Unfortunately we do not have any room for NW movement (snow) so the UK is probably going to be an ice storm. We need it to bee 200-300 miles SE of the GFS. 

Someone else just said it came pretty far NW too...

Just now, bubbler86 said:

The American models shut this forum down.   I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time.  (Until the 18Z name, LOL).

Someone on the NYC forum with the hard to read maps of the Ukie said it came NW of where it's been, but it's still SE of the GFS. 

3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Nam

 

Lovin' that hole over northern Lancaster county. 

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey all! Thought I'd stop in to check out what's happening over in my old stomping grounds. Looks like a fun weekend in store for much of the forum. There's a higher than normal chance of WSW snowfall for areas north of the Turnpike with 8+" certainly in the cards for north-central and NW PA this weekend. Taking a look at the models this morning, there's a general agreement in all of the forum beginning with snow, even down to the M/D line as the initial WAA regime kicks in with the southerly H85 flow out of the surface low back in the Tennessee Valley. With the lack of a sufficient HP over the top funneling cold air into the region, we'll be prone to warming in the mids with the southern zones eventually flipping to sleet/ZR as the low level jet cranks and brings levels between 925-800mb above freezing. The surface wedge should be difficult to scower out at first, and some ZR potential is there for areas south of turnpike and sleet near the turnpike overnight Saturday into Sunday. Eventually, the area south of the pike should turn to straight rain with temps hovering around 32-34 for the remainder of the event. So, southern zones will see modest impact, but certainly nothing too rough to handle. Can see 2-6" of snow from the M/D line to the turnpike with highest amounts the further north you go.

As for the crew out west to 99 and along the Allegheny front, strong H85 frontogenesis with upslope will produce a period of very heavy snowfall for several hours with massive aggregates likely given the growth within the DGZ. Snow will transition to IP/ZR once the H85 jet max noses into the area generating a very shallow warm layer that will shift the ptype. However, once the arctic front pushes through, any shift from snow earlier will transition back with upslope snowfall continuing as PVA swings through and we get a secondary surface frontogen along the mountains. A few inches of snow will be possible on the backside with the initial changeover as the low passes to the east. This areas could very well exceed 6" with up to a foot possible in areas along I-99 to the I-80 corridor. 

Areas north of I-80 will see a prolonged period of heavy snowfall with very little chance of a changeover once west of State College. Williamsport, Clearfield, and north-central and NW tier of the state will be under the gun for a very strong H85 frontogen presence that will generate some significant banding structures across the region. 1-2"/hr snowfall will be possible in the I-80 corridor and north and will likely push totals above 8" for many in that area. Warm nose will poke northward with some sleet possible from State College and east as the surface reflection rides east-northeast over Mid Atlantic. Backside of the surface low with trailing arctic front will blast through and some backside snow is possible in the eastern valleys, but downsloping will allow for a quick drying of the boundary layer, and snow will cut off pretty quickly over the area. Frigid temps are expected post front for everyone with areas around I-80 struggling to get out of the single digits on Monday with below zero lows likely across the northern tier. Bradford, PA and the Grand Canyon of PA will likely settle into the negative teens on Monday morning with WC's well below zero for most, if not all the sub forum on Monday morning. 

Hope you guys enjoy the snow and stay warm! I'll be visiting family starting tomorrow through the 26th, so I'll be in the region, but I'll be watching from the sidelines at my parents place in Southern DE along the coast. Drip drip drip for me lol

Thank you SO much for your thoughts! We all appreciate it (and you) very much. 

God bless those Germans...

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Just to clarify my statement was far eastern PA as in Philly and north but Icon does have some back end for Lancaster.  The snow fall and precip maps are not out yet so I was guesstimating on the intensity of the radar maps.

 

 

Good to know, thanks for the clarification. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

I'd think sleet/zr would suppress the blowing snow (where it really puts it down thick).  I do feel from the MD north, this could be a messy messy kinda deal if 2m temps hold below freezing like they often do.  

No no no...sorry, I wasn't clear. I'm talking about the 4''-6" of snow at the END of the storm that the ICON is depicting. 

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Icon drops a snow bomb on far Eastern PA and NJ as the low is departing.  Probably 4-6" back end. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

frontend love with backend action

great combo

Imagine that for a minute...you have all of that moisture that will freeze solid once the arctic front moves through AND then add a layer of snow on top. 

So motorists are now battling blowing snow across roads which are a sheet of ice underneath.

Sh*t is getting real. 

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I’d wager Harrisburg sees about 2”-4” of snow, a whole lot of sleet & freezing rain, some rain for a couple hours (maybe), then the attic air turning everything everywhere into a solid glacier.


. Pro

I think that is a GREAT call! Matches up with my 1"-3" for here.