Itstrainingtime

Just now, bubbler86 said:

This is not the end of it either

 

Question is...how much of that is taint? 

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It sure is. I don't split hairs or isobars with pointing out very subtle run to run shifts. This is a pretty big shift back in the right direction with the mix line running the far southern tier under the turnpike but getting no further north in the LSV. 

Thanks MAG. Off to an encouraging start with the 0z suite. 

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

DT just put out his Farmville Snow Hole Woof Aleet Big Dog First Guess Second Call Last Update. And it says Fcku your mother.

Remember the meltdown he had a few years ago when it looked for days on end like Richmond was going to get 2' of snow...and at the last minute the storm came much farther north and they changed to sleet after 4'? He had a complete meltdown for the ages that would have made any weenie proud. 

Just now, MAG5035 said:

NAM at 45hr is decidedly south of 18z, with a low center on the southeastern KY/TN line vs 18z positioning near Louisville, KY

That sounds very good...

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Still too soon for that...

So on Saturday we get the first guess proceeding his first call? (that's kind of how he does it, right?)

Did Dave Tolleris put out his first guess on his first call on his first prediction yet? 

12 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Henrys new map

 

Is that as in Henry Margusity? 

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Round 1 was 1.1”

Good deal, I'm at .6"

So at any rate light snow continues to fall here. 28 degrees.

11 minutes ago, JTrout said:

The band fizzled quite a bit crossing the river into Lancaster. Lancaster city area has a dusting and snowing lightly. 

Not here it didn't. .5" and snowing.

@canderson CTP did the same thing to my grid last evening then brought it back later. Weird...

Just finished dinner, took a peek outside and low and behold everything is white. I love snow!

CTP updated the Winter Storm Watch down here from 2"-5" to 3"-5".  

26 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Trying to keep the good vibes going the GFS is actually not that bad on the front end.  Supports the WSW issued.  Take an inch or so off this to account for tonight but Lancaster county is surprising good. 

 

 

 

 

One thing the GFS did was really smooth out the amounts from border to border...instead of 2" at the southern border to 22" at the New York line, there's only a 7" or so disparity.

That doesn't seem right to me. 

14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

 

I’m liking my call my of 2”-4” followed by a hellish sleet/ice fest for The LSV between 81 & turnpike, but I may have underdone the snow a bit. I think that initial wallop may be significant and put down 4”-6” followed by lots and lots of sleet and freezing rain.

Speaking of which, when the hell is the best time to shovel in this scenario of snow to ice to freezer? If it gets above freezing it will only be for a short time late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.


. Pro

 

This is what happened in '94. Road crews decided to let snow on the roads knowing that the ice on top wouldn't melt for a week with the bitter cold temperatures.

I've always had the mindset of getting everything cleaned off as quick as i can and then use sand for traction if ice persists. But that's me. 

14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I would giggle my Arse off were that to verify. 

From what I've read, it was the JMA that sniffed out '96 first.

We know the NAM has scored it's coups...

I wonder if the NavGem has ever been first to the party with anything? 

3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I don't ask questions just to read my own words. 

I tried to answer you but didn't think ice was that big of a concern.  

10 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Haha.  If his depiction played out precisely then it looks like my backyard would be between 3.3 to 3.5.  We. Will. See.

I liked the fact that he was acknowledging that <100 miles was the difference between 1" and 12".  Now where have we seen that possibility before?  Seems like this state falls in the battleground many, many times.

That is so true. How many times in the past decade have we been on the northern edge of the battleground? And now we finally have a vintage 80's slop storm where I'm on the southern edge. 

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Is Horst waffling to a colder scenario?  

He's been calling for a "few inches" of snow locally all week and still is. He has lowered his expected temperatures however, and is hitting ice pretty good. 

Just now, JTrout said:

And there she is. Carlisle, I'm liking my call...

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I see unfortunately absolutely nothing keeping it from lifting further north.

Me either...I'm channeling my inner weenie here...

I'm going to lay this out there and say that with so many storms in the past there is a clear north trend in the days proceeding it. Often, just before onset there is a step back. Let's will this bad boy a little bit further south on tomorrow's guidance.  (weenie handbook rule #6547) 

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Kind of surprised for Lancaster County.


.

Me too - thought for sure Lancaster and York would be left out. 

@Wmsptwx  Why do you always go quiet when you're in the bulls eye for our forum? You always have plenty to say when you're on the outside looking in.  

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

NWS>>>Winter Storm Watch issued!

Yes sir! 2" - 5" of snow, which means my call for you is pretty much squarely in the middle.