Jump to content

Itstrainingtime

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,417

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Itstrainingtime

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    was just looking at 500/700/850 panels for 12z Nam for that very thing.  Just need to hope the GFS caves to the meso's.  Doesnt have to cave a lot, just a bit.

    Sorry, but I really really like Horst, and he's usually more right than wrong.....but I'm hoping for the latter (as we all are).  Not expecting 24", but a more frozen variety is my bar.  Boy do I wish I was in state college to NC Pa for this one over the weekend.

    A big heck yes to every word of this. I'm fine with some snow and then a wintry mix...just please not hours of heavy rain and temps in the 40s. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, daxx said:

    Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm.  Hopefully things turn around at 12z.   Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall.  As you move north and west it gets better.  Upstate NY does great.

    Horst just issued a new 7 day forecast and man is beating the heavy rain drum for Saturday night...

    • Sad 1

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, daxx said:

    Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm.  Hopefully things turn around at 12z.   Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall.  As you move north and west it gets better.  Upstate NY does great.

    Yep...though the Ukie is interesting enough to keep some hope alive. It's still early in the game as well. 

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

    Just toggled through overnights for 2m air temps, and most stay in the mid/upper 30's in the LSV and slightly cooler in the central regions during warmest panels, and prior to arctic frontal passage. 

    I'm hoping GFS warm bias is part of what were seeing, because if you cool them off just a pinch, its a much better result.  (thats a blend of truth and weenie wishcasting).

    NAM stays in upper 20's

    The NAM goes out that far? I thought it only went to hour 84...

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    Yes sir !

    The Euro weeklies looked great yet again last night. The good pattern should roll straight through the end of February.

    Lots of tracking ahead for us !

    Yes - I believe a lot of us will end up disappointed this weekend if expecting big snows. However, it's just a matter of time until the block establishes itself and the real fun begins.

    There are going to be a lot of pretty model graphics with some big numbers on them in the coming weeks...

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Horst:

     

    Monday, January 14, 2019:

    The second half of January may be a wild ride, both in terms of storms and temperatures. While generally colder than recent weeks, I can still see a mild day every now and then...thus, making precipitation type a tricky matter as a parade of storms move by. I expect we'll see a system of import pass by here every 3 or 4 days--this will make for lots of heavy lifting for meteorologists as there could be up to four storm threats before month's end.

    Short term, Monday through Thursday morning will be quiet with seasonable temperatures and no precipitation. Then comes system #1 (a fast-moving clipper) on Thursday afternoon and night with a 6- to 10-hour period of snow changing to wintry mix...ending as drizzle. South of the Turnpike this type of system typically yields a coating to an inch or two, whereas central PA and the mountains could get 2 to 4 inches. Of course, those are "typical numbers" for a system like this--check back here Tuesday for me to issue my actual forecast for Thursday night's clipper system.

    A shallow shot of cold air will slice in on Friday, behind the exiting clipper. Meanwhile storm #2 will be gathering in Texarkana...and this system will race our way with abundant Gulf moisture in tow. Precip should arrive here (as snow) Saturday afternoon, however, a change to wintry mix or perhaps even rain seems more likely than not Saturday night into Sunday morning. Of course, the storm is still 5+ days away...and it's much too early to lock in the details. But with very little downstream blocking, I expect the shallow cold air will retreat from southern PA and, thus, the inland track with a changeover is the more likely outcome. (Snow lovers can hold out hope of a more eastern/colder track for a couple more days--the critical disturbance won't even come into the US west coast until Thursday AM.) Another possibility...is the storm will begin as snow, then change to rain Saturday night, then end as a period of snow midday Sunday, as Arctic air gets drawn into the back end of the exiting storm. Realistically, however, it will be Thursday until this storm can be dialed in--check back then!

    Beyond that, a windy/cold Monday will follow...and next Monday night could be the coldest of the year so far if high pressure builds in over fresh snow cover. But again, without downstream blocking to hold in the cold air, milder air will return our way just as storm #3 approaches sometime in the Wednesday PM to Friday PM time frame. We're now talking 10 days in the future--so this can all change--but I can see this becoming another changeover storm for the Lancaster area.

    Summing: I rather storm period is developing with above-average precipitation likely for the second half of January. But if you want all snow from these next three storms, then move to Bradford PA...because here in Lancaster all three systems may involved a changeover. This will make for challenging forecasts...and sleep deprivation...for this guy! (grin)

    January Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Folks...on behalf of the really good people from the Commonwealth of PA, please accept my apologies for the intruder Snowwhateverheis5921. 

    Thing is, I don't think I've ever seen him post up in our forum. #trollingthecrapoutofyou. 

    • Like 3
    • Haha 2

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

    Idk dude maps have good snows all way up to NY State line and south to LSV.

    Yes they do but there's a big disparity between Lancaster county and the PA/NY border. That's my point - I don't think this will be evenly distributed or even close to it. I've seen nothing to suggest it will. 

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

    I knew him, he use to go out with Mona fourmore. They've since broke up, she now goes out with Dick Hertzer. 

     

    On a serious note :) does anyone remember ( iknow you do) the days leading up the valentines event, was it unseasonably cold?

    What I remember even better is that at about a 72 hour lead time EVERY model that I'm aware of had all of getting absolutely buried...talking like 2' plus totals. Somewhere around 48 hours out everything suddenly shifted west and introduced ice into our forecast. It never wavered from that point to game time. 

    • Like 1

    January Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    Sucks for you since you got nothing this weekend. I would tell you to go discuss it in the PA forum but they are good people also and I don’t wish you on anyone. 

    Thanks! You guys can kindly keep him right down here in your threads. :) 

    • Haha 1
×
×
  • Create New...