Itstrainingtime

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z NCEP GFS tries to put a solid 2" - 4" across event the LSV with this event.  

Appreciate your thoughts...and doubly appreciate when you're optimistic.  

45 minutes ago, canderson said:

That $4.74 isn't going to get you much of a snowstorm (remember he has a daughter in college!). 

I like MDT to get 1.5" of snow/sleet mix. Falling as the sun sets only makes it more fun. If you're north, say State College and up, you probably end up with a plowable snowfall.

Giddy up, kids!

A lot of times over the past few years I've noticed that you usually guess low on amounts, or at least lower than what I would guess, but I was thinking earlier this morning that 1"-2" at the airport seemed about right. I have a feeling that you'll end up being really close on that...

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

And the weather seems it changed with a snap of a finger.


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Thankfully, mercifully...

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

My feeling for LSV is 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet going over to light rain and drizzle.

However if that ULL passes south of us and can reinvigorate the low off the coast, we could get a deform band to set up and add more snow.

Just happy to be tracking a legit threat.


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There was some discussion last night about the deform band, and that is a potential wildcard in how much the final tally is. 

28 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'd just say proceed w/ caution.  its still climatologically "early" for some of us, and the maps are really perty and wanna suck me in like a hoover....but its a marginal airmass and somewhat antecedent cold in its presentation, and barely cold enough at best.  Razors edge for SE.  Like Blizz suggested, cut totals WAY back for fringe areas.  Major taint and if you look at the 6z GFS, it suggests alot of mixing issues.  Still time and sure is exciting nontheless.  Very happy to be where we are regardless the outcome.

 

Nut

Could not have said it any better. My excitement level is fairly high, my expectation level is very low. I would be stunned if S&E of Harrisburg gets more than 2", and even that amount would surprise me a bit. Still though...after months of relentless humidity it sure feels good to be where we're at now. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

#snowtv

Normal disclaimer applies.....but i can see better  potential for Thursday as the lower levels look better for true central pa (although taint likely for a period with normal caveats by geographic locations). North Central is big winner verbatim

 

 

This is where our buddy from Williamsport stays quiet all week and then goes about his business removing 6" of paste while we get our cars washed...

12 hours ago, Voyager said:

WTF??? 

As I said...it was pure fantasy. For most if not all of us it's gone already. I probably shouldn't have posted it, but like Nut said it's just nice to be at the point where purty maps are starting to show up on modeling again. 

Overnight run from our friends up north. Obviously this is mere fantasy, but at least we've reached the time of year where fantasy happens. 

Besides...when is the LSV ever in the bullseye?  

Well hello there, Eric...

Next week looks quite cold...perhaps more like early December than mid-November with high temps mainly in the 40s here in Lancaster...and in the 30s in the mountains. Saturday through Monday looks mainly cold and dry, before a jet stream amplification in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Obviously it's way too early for details, but given the December-like look (as I see it)...this system could bring snow to parts of northern and western PA...and perhaps even a rain-snow mix here. Again, this system is 8 or 9 days away and so it's a very uncertain forecast--the above is my pattern-based speculation and NOT an official forecast! Behind this nebulous system will come another blast of unseasonably cold air lasting into the following weekend. --Horst

Possible squall line tomorrow? 

6 hours ago, Voyager said:

Cool!

I kinda liked Houston. Boy was it wet down there, though. I walked in the grass at the elementary school and it was oozing water around my shoes.

 

My wife just spent a week in Houston/Pearland. She loved it and wants to go back with me. I told her if we do it as a baseball park tour I'm in. 

Horst will be posting his winter forecast tomorrow, but he did leave one hint this morning - above average snowfall for the winter is likely...

At least down this way, we've replaced warm, muggy wet weather with cool, refreshing wet weather. 3rd day in the row we rain. 

I like the reinforcing shots of cool air every few days now. Barring a late-season tropical storm we should be finished with muggies. I think.

On 10/5/2018 at 4:03 PM, canderson said:

I’m in Dallas. It’s hot as summer here too still.

You go to the Red River rivalry? Hook 'em Horns! 

Very muggy here in Pittsburgh. Drove through a torrential thunderstorm on the pike near Monroeville yesterday.

PA tornado count is now up to 15! (Source: SPC)

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Tomorrow and Saturday look to be cooler before we go back to the 80s

I wonder which will be warmer?: (I'm going to both)

• Steelers-Falcons this Sunday in Pittsburgh (Current forecast high is 82)
• Jaguars-Texans on 10/21 in Jacksonville

16 hours ago, canderson said:

Anyone know where yesterday ranks for number of tornadoes in one day in PA? Seven is a ton for this state, especially in “autumn”.

PA total is now up to 12...

Actually, it's now 10 confirmed and 2 still under investigation.

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

 

High dewpoints = high minimums = near record warmth


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Story of the summer - it really wasn't about the heat, it was all about the humidity and extremely warm nights without hardly any radiational cooling. 

Hope everyone made out okay yesterday. That event wasn't modeled too well, correct? I think that the Binghamton office had put out a HWO yesterday morning but beyond that i don't recall seeing much to indicate weather of that magnitude in the CTP forecast area...

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the latest guidance, Harrisburg could have a mean temperature of approximately 69° for the first week in October. That would place the first week of October 2018 among the ten warmest such weeks on record. Records go back to 1888.

The 10 warmest first weeks in October are:

1. 74.4°, 1941
2. 72.6°, 1959
3. 71.0°, 2013
4. 70.6°, 2007
5. 70.2°, 1922
6. 70.1°, 1900
7. 69.8°, 1931
8. 69.1°, 1898
9. 69.0°, 1927
10. 68.8°, 1995

From among that set of years, both 1900 and 2007 went on to see October finish with an average monthly temperature of 60° or above. Only six years have had such warm Octobers. The six warmest years are:

1. 62.0°, 2007
2. 61.5°, 1984
3. 61.3°, 1947
4. 61.2°, 2017
5. 60.6°, 1900
6. 60.5°, 1971

Should 2018 finish with a 60° or higher mean temperature, 2017 and 2018 would be the first occurrence of consecutive years with such October warmth.

 

Awesome stuff Don, thank you! By the way, not sure about Harrisburg, but just down the road at Lancaster it was the 2nd warmest September on record. The beat goes on...

3 hours ago, Superstorm said:

That one still stings, lol.


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Probably the biggest weather disappointment in my lifetime with the Boxing day storm several years ago coming in 2nd. 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Franklin isn’t really a big game coach, he lacks that skill in Xs abd Os. 

 

Penn State should quit the White Out stuff, they have a losing record when they do that. It’s much ado about nothing.

True...but remember:

1. Whiteouts are always against the marquee team of the season

2. A handful of those games were in the lean years in the wake of the scandal when PSU was clearly overmatched in every way possible. 

3. Agree 100% about Franklin. Great coach until game day, lol. It irked me the way he brought up player's grades in the post game press conference. Not cool. 

10 hours ago, pirates21 said:

That was one of the worst offensive play calls of all time in a crucial fourth down situation with the game on the line. What was Franklin thinking? As you said you let your playmaker, McSorley, throw the ball with the option to run for the first down. If he throws it to a receiver theres a chance for interference and an automatic first down. What a crushing loss but extra crushing losing to Ohio St and Urban Liar. Hes a dirtbag who protects abusers of women. Enough said

Yeah...

In retrospect after a fitful night of sleep I'd be remiss in not giving the Buckeyes some credit. Down 2 scores in that environment and coming back like that...I tip my cap to them for that. 

12/30/2000 fellas...I went to bed that night to a forecast of 12"-24" of snow. Woke up excitedly at 6:00am to see the blizzard. Only problem was it was partly cloudy. One of the most cruelest disappointments personally and weather model failures in modern weather history. I remember how empty I felt that day. 

Isn't it amazing what weather and sports can do to one's morale? 

What a head-scratching, horrific call to crush my hopes and dreams tonight. How do you NOT give #9 a chance to win the game? I will see that ill-advised handoff to Sanders in my dreams for days on end. This is true in any sport...with the game on the line, you give your play maker a chance to make a play. The ball (and the game) was literally taken out of Trace's hands. I know, I know...it's easy to 2nd guess things that don't work. My biggest beef is that Ohio State snuffed Sanders ALL night. They did very little to contain McSorley. He only rushed for 175 freaking yards. 

Being up 12 at home and losing makes the pain doubly bad.

Being up 12 at home and losing to Ohio State is killing me. 

Thanks for letting me vent. We now resume weather talk and what promises to be a week of way above normal temperatures yet again. Joy in abundance tonight. 

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m at 66.02” in Fairfield Adams County at my work (golf course).  15.96” for September.    Low 60’s for coop site in Cashtown.    

Wow.

We've had a few winter-like events over the past several weeks that have targeted the far southern border counties. I knew you were "doing well" but I honestly didn't know you were doing THAT well. 

How's the course holding up? 

29 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

well, we know how 96 turned out

 

2003 was a good winter, i have 79.5" in my notes with a Miller B February 16/17

2004 i have 43" marked down

'11 was pretty ****ty

the other years i don't have in my journal 

The January 96 storm is still my all-time favorite. 30" of cold powder that actually lasted for 12 days before the epic flood that wiped out the west span of the Market Street bridge...