Itstrainingtime

10 minutes ago, daxx said:

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

I was going to post for you but thought better of it. Turns out you posted exactly what I would have said! (that you would say)

"If Brian isn't posting there's a damn good reason for it." (nothing to see here, move along...) 

23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and we are entering the lose it phase on the models.  We've seen that before.  Not sure if new goofus has that fixed or not.  

The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

still has the storm.....all we need to worry about right now.

True...it's not dead yet. 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon has a case of the warminista's (and dry).  Actually seems loser to the coast but the whole no cold air thing....

Really feel like this is either a 4"+ or nothing at all type of deal. We're not going to snow much less accumulate unless we get under some heavy QPF. 

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Will be very interesting to track this as we get closer. We've got a very large model spread at the moment. Euro/CMC are still OTS. NAVGEM has slowly backed off the super amplified look. GFS and ICON are solid hits. UKMET is an ampliefied bomb off the jersey coast but the surface is torched so it's basically just a windy rain storm. I think it's going to be hard to score around 95 on this one. I'd be shocked if we get an inch to be honest. North and west a 1-3" pasting looks to be in the cards but with so many possible solutions at this juncture, it's hard to even be confident in that. Will be a fun fews days of tracking but I warn that this one is likely a fail imo

Popping in from Lancaster county just to say that I think every word of this post is spot on. Even out this way I have what I call "hope but next to zero expectation." Way too many things argue against this working for us...but there's just enough intrigue with it being a potential coastal to keep tracking. 

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll tell ya this....if the 6z Goofus has any merit to what its showing, I'm gonna be happier than a clam.  That was one of the snowiest runs i've seen in a long time.

Train of opportunities....and a doozy right in the middle 2/7 weekend. 

That seems to be time when the players are progged to be aligned for our best opportunity. I'm genuinely interested in the period beginning in about 10 days.

Yeah...I know. 

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I assume Nut(s) is suggesting it is trending but yea that map as depicted is a partly sunny day with highs around 40. 

Understood. I wasn't refuting his comment, just saying that as depicted that would not work for us. 

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

that sucks...

this doesnt though.....

We need that LP to be stronger than that...don't we? I'm thinking we need a deep system to create a favorable dynamic.

Just now, Atomixwx said:

I just cruised the Upstate NY subforum earlier and that place is sad. The only thing I'm really taking from this shitfest is that everyone on the east coast has attended. 

Margusity seems to think a coastal is possible this weekend. PennLive appears to be punting on winter. 

https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2020/01/will-the-polar-vortex-make-an-appearance-in-whats-left-of-winter.html

 

Btw, that article mentions that it's not impossible that March and April, which has been winter lately,  will be cold.

While I think the chances for us to see snow this weekend is minuscule, it would at least be nice to have SOMETHING to track. Even if delivered the goods to our mountain friends it would be fun to have something ride up the coast...

...on the other hand, if it rained here from a coastal storm taking a perfect track at this time of year I might not find it so entertaining...

7 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Hopefully take a look at thinks on Wednesday morning and see how things look. Right now the models are messing with us. 

Looks like it's going to be a pretty nice week...

This is what has been messing with my head now for some time. It has been nice - my wife and I were out on the local river trail yesterday and it was packed. It felt really good to be outside in a light sweatshirt. 

BUT...

If beggars could be choosy I wish it was nice for walking like in...April. Or May. As nice as it was, as fun as it was...I kept thinking about how with each day we're marching through peak climo for wintry weather and well...it isn't exactly wintry. 

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Looks like 1.68" might just do it for this event, unless that band to the west makes it through here. How much did everyone else see? Over in the Philly thread, some have gotten over the 2 inch mark.

1.8" with water still running everywhere.

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s breezy but for us nothing we don’t see every few days, this place is cray f’n windy.

The wind is actually shaking our house right now. Winds don't really impress me but it is howling!

We have a breeze but nothing special...maybe 10-20 mph?

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Lock the Euro up!!


.

A few years ago we almost could have. When doc was honking it was time to go all in. Man have the times changed. 

Just now, canderson said:

Punting anything 6+ days out is idiotic, no matter what season. 

Well Horst already punted next weekend's storm, saying that it's a rain storm, with only a long shot to get a rain to snow situation. I don't think he's idiotic?

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's a blast. Let me know if you want any tips or list of rides/places to eat. We had a great experience and rode so many great rides. 

It really is...I've had so much fun I've taken my family 17 times since 1991. Never gets old and now that the kids are grown it's a great place for my wife and I have a different experience before grand kids start rolling in. 

35 minutes ago, canderson said:

... she sounds hideous. 

Sorry, back to weather.

I will say this week has been nice because we've had snowcover all week since our little event last Saturday. It's actually felt like winter. 

Must be nice. What little snow I got last weekend was long gone before it even got cold. 

20 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Henry Margusity punted until late February this morning. Henry Margusity or not, a meteorologist punting until late February is basically bolting a coffin shut. 

If that dude actually punted we might as well quit on snow until about 2025. That guy has a little bit of JB in his genes...

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

We are busy inflating life rafts. 

Well, I guess it's something different from calling the tree removal service. 

Observation - it's never a good thing when you log in on a January morning and see that it's been 10 hours since the last post.  

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

IF we cant laugh shit off....what else ya gonna do?

 

Maybe we'll watch on the sidelines going forward as a couple of southern sliders bury the Carolinas. Why not?...those good folk have waited years for snow. It's their turn! 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Probably in a literal sense as you cannot trust surface temps that far out but I was looking at it from the point of most systems starting off with the perfect track 5-10 days out and eventually trending north.  No room for that to trend any where north.    Its almost the very perfect track if we had a deeper cold air base to start. Would probably see waves of heavy snow pumping up into the LSV from the South East.  Another alternate way this could work out would be for it to be a bit more south and east when it gets off the coast and intensify further south drawing in colder air while at the same time throwing its QPF blanket over us. 

Agreed, and that is why I said if you could take the GFS exactly as depicted...which of course we fully understand will NOT happen that way. 

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great track but no cold air.  

With the 12z GFS track you would be plastered in paste. Maybe a bit tenuous for me, but no way that's mostly a rain storm for you. 

Right?  

954mb...mercy. 

I honestly don't know what to think about the next 6-8 weeks. I'm equally expecting 2" as I am 30". All we can ask for right now are chances...