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Itstrainingtime

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    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Verbatim it would be one of those 7 degrees one night, 40 the next situations.  

    Verbatim, the upcoming cold push is keeping it from snowing (much) the next few days. After that, the cold push charges out so fast it again keeps it from snowing. (much) 

    That high is hauling east on the Euro and we are flooded with warm air. I thought at first that we'd have a pretty good CAD setup and a decent amount of frozen, but no...

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, paweather said:

    Just depends on what wave you or Training Time is talking about LOL. 

     

    1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

    We know.  IMO its not about whos right and whos wrong (which sometimes seems that's whats going on in here).  Except for a couple red taggers (who also are faced w/ the same challenges...but they get paid for it), we are all a bunch of weenies throwing our amateur opinions out there to discuss something we enjoy.  Some of us try to back it up w/some logic....right or wrong.  That's the fun of it (for me anyway).  We all learn from one another, and that's the fun of the convo on a weather discussion board...notsomuch whos right and whos wrong.  

    Of course its a possibility and its great to bring up any points to discuss because as amateurs....thats what we are here to do.  I think he knows that. 

    Beyond Thursday, nooners are spilt between N and S, so noone really knows whos right and whos wrong, but as I said earlier, you need to blend knowledge/tendencies/logic and not just look at a map and say...aint happnenin.  Hope that makes sense and doesnt come off snooty, but some of us put time and effort into our reasoning cause thats the fun for many here.   

    I'm less than an amateur - admittedly, beyond looking at models faithfully, I then resort to my climo and intuition. To me, several days ago when the maps were really pretty for the Wednesday PM - Friday deal, my concern was the precip would be suppressed and weaker simply because we didn't have a strong vort attacking it. If something is weak and coming in waves, it's much easier for the cold press to shred, weaken, suppress. And I was only throwing out a question/caution because I've seen it happen a "few" times over the years. Doesn't mean it won't snow, I was just expressing/asking something that looked like a red flag to me. 

    I was convinced that this past Sunday would be far less than the 4-7" that models and others were painting. I ended up with less than 2" of slop. I was convinced a couple of weeks ago that a storm that was modeled and forecasted to give me 3-5" would bust, and I got nada. Honestly, Nut, you've said this many times - in truth, it's easy to say it won't snow because history is definitely on the side of those who say it won't, but I really try to limit my questions/concerns to situations that warrant them. That usually works out really well for me. But again - it's not really super scientific - it's more of an understanding of history, climo, and how systems have interacted with each other in the past.

    This site is a GREAT place to learn. I have my met textbooks on my bookshelf that I still read, but that info pales to what one can learn here.

    I enjoy it, guys. :)  

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    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, anotherman said:

    Looks like we may need a north trend on this one.  Not looking like our storm.  We'll see what 12z has to say.

    Yes, we will. I just got caught up looking at the overnight/early morning guidance and...meh. Things seem to be settling pretty far south, but more importantly, pretty weak. And maybe the weak part is what's translating to the south part, but I don't know. 

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    I just took a look at some current conditions and have a few thoughts on the event tomorrow.

    Currently around noon, temps are in the low 20s in northwest PA with dew points in the single digits. Currently in Baltimore/DC area, temps are  in the mid to high 40s with dew points in the 20s. In the LSV, temps are in the low 40’s with few points in the low 20’s.

    I think that the storm will ride up along the thermal boundary. The radar is blossoming nicely in the south east back towards Mississippi & Alabama and is already streaming towards the northeast.

    I think the LSV is in a good spot for a solid 3 to 5 inches, with a few lucky spots (read Cashtown...) getting a chance at 6 inches of snow by the end of tomorrow.

    I'm not sure...I really hope you're right, but the 12z suite doesn't suggest those amounts outside of the NAM and SREFS. 

    I do like your assertion on temps and dews - I'm shocked with how warm it is today. I'm losing snowpack much quicker today than I did yesterday. Grass is popping in sunny areas quickly today. Bottom line - we should be pretty close to the gradient. 

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