Itstrainingtime

@Jns2183 great, interesting data you posted. Interesting, the 2 big March storms the past 2 years were reversed down here. I got 13.2" in 2017 and 17" on the button on 3/22/2018.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro & 18z GFS still like the idea of some light snow on Friday.

 

We need that to come after dark otherwise it will be the proverbial snow TV, especially with light rates.

One sign that winter is about done...there hasn't been a single post in the MD/VA forum (any thread) in over 30 minutes. Depressing...

5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That's so funny.  Each year, on the first day of summer, I remind my wife that the only good thing about the day is that the days start getting shorter.  Although, I must also say that I love autumn, probably a little more than winter as I get older and increasingly dislike the really cold stuff.

I guess I'm odd. (okay...let that one ride please) I'm 53 and embrace the cold more and more with each passing year. Autumn is good for PSU football and the inevitable march into cold and snow. 

2 minutes ago, daxx said:

You better get with it dude only 201 days until fall! Lol

I got razzed this morning for telling my team how many days are left until the summer solstice and the march down to shorter days and winter! 

2 minutes ago, daxx said:

Hopefully everybody is keeping realistic expectations.  It will be mid March by then so no one should expect anything.  I just think we have an opportunity to score something after mid month. Is it going to substantial?   Not sure too far out in time.  If Sunday was the last then on to next Winter.

Great post...couldn't have said it better. Unrealistic expectations run rampant on these boards. (not necessarily in our sub) Chances might be no better than 50/50 but it beats days of endless summer, right @Voyager ?  

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I saw that, but gotta say, that's one hell of a stretch.  Cold is on the way out, and while a few ticks south may happen, I'd think it could trend into some frozen at onset, only to be scoured out.  I wanna be wrong, but this setup in Mid March, doesnt work like it does in Jan/Feb.  I'll give him props, and hes a good guy, but I sense he has a lot of room on that limb that hes standing on.  IMO next shot is if we get the reload in the east after the next few cutters hit us.  Its just been the theme, and w/ MJO headed towards COD, Im not sure other tellies are pronounced enough to get a big hit.  PNA slightly + beyond 7-8 days and neut NAO, says coldish but no big trough in the east for something to dive in.  Progressive is the flow.

 

Yes...and like @daxx said yesterday to me our next legit and perhaps final chance is after 3/16. 

By the way...other than my "Day In the Life Of..." thread, this was the first one I've ever started. Most of us have had 3 or 4 snow events in the first 10-11 days since I started it. 

I'm collecting donations for starting future threads during the winter.  

11 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

My middle son used to live in Mammoth. It can be an insane spot for snow. He now lives near Big Bear (Roaring Springs) and is concerned his deck will collapse. They had feet of snow followed by inches of rain followed by more feet of snow and then more rain. There's no way he could clear it because it's been pretty much a solid mass since the first big storm.

There are advisories in the area for people to use extreme caution when pulling out from intersections because it's pretty much driving through open air tunnels right now. Snow banks on the road sides are now over 25' in spots. How in the world do they even get it that high? 

5 minutes ago, daxx said:

I remember as a kid living over your way and being in the single digits while my brother lived on coffee Goss road, and his temp would be below zero.  A mile at the most would separate us.

Yep, some wild swings just outside of Maytown. Donegal Springs road heading towards Mount Joy will often be as much as 10 degrees colder than I am on clear and calm nights with snow cover. 

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

just crazy.....

 

What's remarkable is that the Sierra got off to a horrific start to the season. Back on Thanksgiving, 11/22, we had 7" for season, Mammoth had 0". They've had over 600" in 102 days. And it's dumping now...

Morning low temperatures across eastern York, southern Dauphin and Lancaster county. Included is @pasnownut 12 near Akron and my 17 south of Elizabethtown. 

Mammoth Mountain in the Sierra is expected to receive 2' to 3' of snow today and tomorrow...no biggie when they're over 600" for season, right?

I find it amusing that with that amount of snow coming, all that warrants up there is a Winter Weather Advisory. 

We get a WWA for 2 to 3 INCHES. 

It's the kind of setup for temperature extremes...

I had 17 at home. My 12 mile drive to work saw the temp fluctuate between 12 and 21 degrees. 

Snowpack in my yard ranges from 3" up to 7" with bare ground surrounding trees.

17 this morning...pedestrian cold.  

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Can't agree more, but you posted know biases, so i thought that was your point.  NAM is and has been on of my fav models for a while now.  That's in part because i know it biases, but think it is a pretty good model and dont get the grief some give it.  I extrapolate @84 all the time.  By the same token, it can swing just like the others do. I/we've seen both.  I toss NOTHING inside of 72, but toss alot beyond 168.  This year proves that is the way to go.   

Count me in as a NAM fan. One thing I've noticed over the years is it seems to sniff out southern storms coming north first. If other guidance is a whiff south but the NAM is consistently north, a lot of times it leads the way. Caveat: I am only speaking about true southern stream, "Miller A" storms. 

3 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm not going to get into great detail with the LR but late week and weekend we could pad a little to our  snow totals.   It looks like we might see a few warm systems with rain as well in between now and mid month. Im thinking after 15th or so the  pattern might set up for something bigger!   Who knows we might usher in astronomical Spring with a snowstorm.  I'm sure Mag has a much better detailed look at the LR than myself.  

17" last year on 3/22/2018. Just saying. 

I'd be more than a little surprised if we're done yet. 

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And thats where the next level of the hobbyist comes in that we just dont look at models, but also incorporate climo, and model biases blah blah blah. 

Someone posted earlier about how "we" (and i use that term loosely, as i include my amateur self in it)....have become model watchers and not forecasters.  Thats not a pointed statement, but just generalization... and feel that its partly true sometimes.  Its easy to get sucked in and wanna believe - we all do it.  I know i've been guilty at times. 

Models have greatly improved (even despite this challenging winter that we are soon done with), but there are still other factors/forcing mechanisms that need taken into consideration.  

This is all so, so true...

Do models take into account situations like yesterday when we had 3+ hours of light to moderate snow with NO accumulation? I was thinking about that this morning...how much would we have gotten if the storm would have moved in at 6pm and snowed until 6am this morning? 

Honestly, truly i probably lost at least 2" yesterday afternoon to "white rain." 

Just now, daxx said:

I went from sunny skies to light snow falling.  This really is deep Winter!

I'll be happy with some cloud cover to keep the sun at bay for a while...

17 minutes ago, daxx said:

This is just my opinion so here it is..models were pretty damn good.  We all got pretty close to what was modeled.  I know to us an inch or two here is huge but in reality that is not.  The warm layer in the upper levels surged a little further north and east which caused and icy structure to the flakes as you went further east in the lsv.  Take that out of the equation and we might have tacked on an inch or two more here in eastern part of the lsv. All said a great three days!

It really was. Just under 11" for me since Thursday. I'm over climo for the winter. And I think we get more....

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Guess I'm not sure where ya'll thought the big totals were coming from?  Personally I never believed them as we were initially concerned at how long it would take for column to cool w/o a good HP anchored in the NE, it was missing the big spark needed to get those totals?

Regardless, it was a great moderate event, and if that's the last appreciable event, oh well.  I may have blown my sled up anyway.

 

 

I agree 100%...hence why my call for my area was for 2" - 5". I was commenting this morning on what my ground truth was versus what models were showing. 

22 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Glad you did so well.  I was seeing guys on here say 4-5" and saw the CTP reports saying similar for Lancaster proper.  NAM, GFS, Euro all had them getting 6-10".  N MD really got screwed with Frederick only getting 2" on a 6-8 forecast.   

Correct...almost every model had all of Lanco at 6"+. I had 4". But as i said earlier this morning most of Lanco did better than me. It's all perspective from how your back yard did. 

15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm confused, from my view from afar this weekend I saw lanco in 4-7 range and cashtown and points NE doing better.  I'm rather certain I got @ 6" which was on point.  S Lanco was to get a little more and I'm waiting to hear from my bud south of Millersville (plows commercially for several clients).  

I think your approach to not getting too wrapped up in models is a good one, bud I thought they did pretty well.  

I ended up with just over 4". Certainly not 5 or 6". Regardless, the Euro was constantly showing 7-8" amounts for me and the Canadian was even higher. And both of those and probably a few other were striping the heaviest snows east of the Susquehanna. We were talking all weekend in here that Lancaster (especially northern) might end up the winner in this general area. It didn't. That was my only point. Every storm has little surprises within the envelope of the bigger picture. 

As long as the parade of storm continues and there's cold air around, we gotta have chances...

9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Northern and Central Lancaster County got screwed.  Some 7-9" near the MD line and that was with mixing at Delta and near Strictlerville.  Seems the storm shut off more quickly than modeled.  Coastal pulled it out instead of pushed it up...someone else had mentioned that last night.   Dillsburg reported 8" which is the highest I have seen away from the MD line so far.  Upper Strausburg had 6.5.  I had 7.  

 

Easy shovel as only about 4" on the pavement. Nice, peaceful morning for what might be the last one of the season.  

 

EDIT-FV3 has 3 possible shovel events in the next 15 days.  LOL.  Hmmm...

And that's why i never get too invested in models...how many were targeting my area with the highest amounts? Quite a few. 

Every storm is unique, every storm brings with it surprises, both good and bad. And in March...there's always extra wild cards involved.

By the way, I do NOT think we're done yet. In fact i wouldn't be surprised if we get more than one more snow. I'm surprised at how bearish you are...