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Itstrainingtime

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    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, canderson said:

    I don’t want to see another model snow map again.  

    They're hard to ignore, (try as I do) but a lot of people love them, so my feelings are definitely in the minority and I respect what others want to see. 

    There's no harm in them so long as people understand that they'll end up with somewhere around 5-10% of ground truth if you add up the totals on the maps. It's when people see 17" over their house and expect it from a 6 hour storm that I start to pull my hair out. 

     

     

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

    They canceled it everywhere except for a couple NE counties.  Hoisted a new WWA for the stuff coming tonight.  

     

    1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    A review of the latest HRRR (16Z) says that approximately 2" more is yet to come for all of us.  However, it doesn't restart until about 6:00pm this evening and it's over with around 2:00am tomorrow.  If I can double my storm total from thus far, it'll be a minor victory.  Currently the temperature isn't going anywhere even though the skies did brighten considerably for a time 30 minutes ago.  They've darkened back up again now.  Temp is 25.2 degrees.

    CTP going for 1-3" additional snowfall tonight through mid morning tomorrow. 

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, paweather said:

    -NAO check, +PNA check, NS/SS Phase uncheck. I like we finally had a SS primary steamer and what seemed like a Miller A BUT we cannot win. I am ready for a Clipper we haven't had one in 2 years now. 

    Oh no...I hate clippers. So many ways to fail with those. We've had some notable exceptions for sure, but I never count on much of anything from them. They really should be renamed "Mountain Shredders". 

    One positive is they are high ratio events. You can score 3-4" of fluff from like .10" of QPF. So there's that. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    was the conshohocken 14" verified?

    Thats a small distance for such a HUGE qpf disparity.  

    Looking at 511 cams, I think I answered my own question.  They've got snow, but I Dont see 14" in those cams....but if you add any 3 together then ok...maybe I'll bite.

     

    11 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


    I have only seen reports of snow approaching 9”. I have not seen any official 14” reports from that area.


    .

    Highest officially reported amount to Mt. Holly that I just checked was a 9.5". Some serious weenie reporting going on in the Philly thread, or a VERY localized dump in that area. I should have known better than to post weenie info - I take people for face value and assume they're reporting factual totals. My apologies. 

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

    Depends what model you go with, but if hrrr is right, this thing is mostly over.

     

    1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

    Hrr goes to 18hrs, and many models have light snow well into tomorrow morning.  While best accums may be over for some, there is more snow to come.  Consider it mood flakes.  

    BTW, your concern was my concern from days ago when N and W were showing big totals, greater than the LSV.  This storm has a progressive look to it (thinking trough axis)t, and not a diggy one (that is what you needed for the coastal numbers to verify.  Its more of a wave to weak coastal (and that's not bad at all)....but is just not good for everyone.  I think conshohocken folks approve of this event by a 14" margin.  

    It seems like a general 4-8 is reasonable (NW to SE gradient), so I'm not complaining a bit...even as i hear pingers mixing in w/ my 4".  If I can eek 2 more inches out through tomorrow morning....thats fantastic.  

    Well folks - going by these 2 posts, it's pretty clear who posts positively and who posts negatively. :)

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Just now, Superstorm said:


    Same here. I just want to get to 5” to meet WSW.


    .

    That would be nice - my 2 personal objectives were to reach my range, which I set to exceed my seasonal average, which I did. Right now I'm at 31.5" for the season, which is a HUGE win during a Nina. I went into the winter, and I shared this with Daxx, expecting 15-20" for the season. (he was more bullish than I was) So, anything from here on out is gravy. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Overall though - I have to say this and then I need to do some work:

    I find what's happening today to be 100% fascinating. We spend hours meticulously breaking down models, analyzing this and that, reaching into our own personal climo history books and memory. And yet - every storm is so unique and different. I know @paweather was/is hoping for up to 10" of snow today, most of us were somewhere between 3-8". Certainly NO one was expecting amounts at or exceeding 1'. And yet, out of nowhere, there are locations just west of Philly taking a solid run towards...who knows? Conshohocken is over 14" and ripping. That can't be predicted by anyone. What an amazing surprise for those people. 

    And that - is why I love the weather as much as I do. 

    • Like 2

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Just now, sauss06 said:

    Not sure we're even at 2" in Harrisburg. I can't tell if its sleeting or very fine snow. I'm going to have to go out. 

    The snowfall amounts aren't going to be uniform at all, nor is there going to be a gradual increase going south to north or north to south. Banding structure is supporting a wide disparity in accumulations - parts of the Philly area are at 8" already, for example. There are winners and losers scattered throughout. 

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

    Interesting, I was on a work call and looked outside and noticed it had that classic mixing look (scattered flakes falling quickly).  I looked back five minutes later and it's back to SN/SN+, no mixing.

    Your area over to parts of the DV really got the goods earlier this morning. You have to be around 5" or more now. 

    Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    Morning all.  Just caught up on the 119 messages that were waiting for me.

    In Carlisle it is 24.4 degrees with moderate fine snow falling.  I've had periods of larger flakes to the point where it was briefly heavy.  Not sure when it started but I'm up to 1.7" of snow as of 9:20am.  No sleet.  Wonder how far north that line goes?

    Good morning! I don't think there's a traditional mix line with this event - I have sleet mixing in now, but there are reports of snow (mostly sleet, but some are snowing) well to my south across MD and VA. Some of it might be intensity driven, but it's not all of it. I think nut had a good explanation earlier. 

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