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Itstrainingtime

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    Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    beer bet says no.  Still gonna be a rude awakening....

    THIS is why I try to suppress the early chatter of the "its over" crowd.  This happens almost every stinkin year. 

    Wishing for sustained warmth in early March, is like wishing for 4 weeks of nice snow cover.  It can happen, and just did, but a rarity, and not something worth complaining over when it doesnt happen.  

    Thing is, I don't recall anyone saying winter was over? I made a post about what other mets were saying from other subs but I certainly never said it was finished. Is the fat lading warming up? Absolutely she is. But while warming up, the game continues on.

    • Like 1

    Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, canderson said:

    CTP hadn’t updated their discussion since 7 am. Hmmm. 

    Updated: 

    Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
337 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Near-term temperature and dew point adjustments
* Conditional threat for tornadoes expanded to cover all of
  south-central Pennsylvania.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Spring-like conditions continues through Wednesday.

2) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some
storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the
possibility of a few tornadoes.

3) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the
week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Spring-like conditions continues through
Wednesday.

As heights continue to build over the eastern US into Wednesday,
temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge
+20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the
upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more
like an average day in mid-May than mid-March. Record-breaking
temperatures on Tuesday have already been observed as of 3PM
across the region, with more information on those records coming
with the 5PM evening climate report. Recent forecast continues
to outline record-breaking warmth potential tonight and for high
temperatures on Wednesday. See the climate section for more
information on possible records.

Isolated to scattered showers/thundershowers are possible this
afternoon and evening during the peak of diurnal heating, with
increased sfc moisture and modest lapse rates aloft creating
just enough instability for convection. Showers across NW PA
have already been observed with better instability/shear
slightly north of the border; however, cannot rule out
showers/thunderstorms in the near-term across Warren/McKean
counties. Focus for shower activity this evening shifts closer
to the central-third of the forecast area, based on recent HREF
model guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along
with the possibility of a few tornadoes.

A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday,
as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front,
numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated during
the daytime and evening on Wednesday. The SPC Day 2 (Wednesday)
Slight Risk area continues to include practically all of central
PA with minor changes to the afternoon update today, with
changes limited to expanding the CIG1 hatching across the
southern tier of Pennsylvania (see more below). The main
uncertainty with respect to this threat continues to be
instability with recent HREF model guidance indicating
considerable cloudiness across much of the area (maybe SE PA
sneaks out a couple breaks early) by sunrise Wednesday. Recent
model guidance does continue to like the idea of some shower
activity in the morning hours, which could further limit
instability for the afternoon/evening hours. Probabilities of
SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent HREF have decreased
some with recent guidance indicating a second corridor along
I-81 and extending closer to the Harrisburg area; however,
probabilities have even dropped in this corridor as well.

With winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it
wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the
ground. In contrast with the system over this past weekend,
there will be more shower activity during the day on Wednesday
but also a more moist airmass in place before storms arrive, and
no cool air damming signal over east central PA. Given the very
strong low-level winds and Gulf moisture connection, the
resultant 850 mb moisture flux is progged to be about as strong
as it can be this time of year across western PA.

While damaging straight line winds will be the primary threat
with Wednesday`s convection, the SPC D2 outlook also includes
CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania, meaning the
conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the
climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop
in that area on Wed, they could be strong.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the
end of the week and weekend.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front
cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front
may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to
snow Wed night into Thu. Gusty winds will also accompany the
system, with gusts of 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday.

Trending toward the longwave pattern that we saw most of the
winter, with cooler conditions on the east coast. Weather
systems will be moving fast so a lot of day to day variation
likely.

Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will
lead to chances for precipitation as well as strong winds every
few days from this weekend into early next week. At this point,
the storm track favors the primary corridor of precipitation
passing north of the area. With overnight lows within a few
degrees of the freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will
be largely dependent on what time of day it moves through. But
as of this time, no significant systems or appreciable
precipitation are expected.

&&

     

    • Like 1

    Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, canderson said:

    PA tornado outbreak seems possible to somewhat probable tomorrow.  

    More than that, straight lines winds of 70 mph seems highly likely for some. Hail too 

    Yeah the timing of the front sped up enough that it'll impact us during prime hours now. Yesterday it looked like it wouldn't arrive here until early Thursday which would have greatly mitigated our chances. 

    Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

    Even though there's still opportunities for snow still to come for the next 40 days or so, Winter is basically on life support now. Spring is trying to takeover. And we should all welcome it after those brutal temps we all experienced for 3 months. 

    I admit that yesterday was exceptionally nice to be outdoors. And it was obvious judging by the throngs of people on local trails that many, many people were feeling the same way.

    Having said that, I'm sorry but I found nothing brutal about this winter. I enjoyed every single bitterly cold day we had and I won't apologize for it. :)  

    • Like 2

    Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    Busted back out of the overcast/drizzle this afternoon and well into the 60s again today (as high ans 65ºF) after it had moved back in after dark last night.

    The severe setup definitely escalated quickly in western PA, with temps reaching near 80 with dewpoints near 60. Decent shear/wind parameters and at least some CAPE (500-1000) along with some discrete cell formation. That will definitely need monitored over there. Obviously will remain much more stable in eastern PA at the low levels with the overcast and cool air damming but might still be some rumbles of thunder with anything that makes it over that way tonight. I do expect non-diurnal warming this evening in the spots that have been most locked in to the CAD as the approaching system/ SW flow will eventually mix some of the warmth down. 

     

    Just had the first TOR warning issued. Several thunderstorm warnings also out currently.

    • Thanks 1

    Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    11 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

    Are you as worried about the drought like I am?

    Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
     

    I am. It's been an ongoing concern for months.

    11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    I can’t wait for more drought maps right after it rains… great times ahead.

    Just give me one more good snowstorm & then I will be ready for Spring.

    That's kind of a strange comment to make when some areas of the LSV are already in a moderate to severe drought.

    Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    Here in Carlisle yesterday...I also heard my first thunder of the year, twice a few minutes apart.  That was followed by heavy rain which put down the (almost) first 1" rain day for this year.  I'll have to go back and find the last occurrence.  I measured 0.96" for the day.  Yesterday was also the third consecutive day with measurable precip; Tuesday: 0.22"; Wednesday: 0.06"; Thursday: 0.96" for a 3-day total of 1.24".  Total for the month is now 1.24" and for the year to date 4.94".

    If you check out my snowfall season totals (below) you will see that the winter of 20-21 with 30.5" is the only winter so far this decade with almost normal for the season.  Every other season has been substantially below normal with season totals at or below 20".  And, to add insult to injury, who can forget the winter of '19-'20 with my season total of just 6.5"!?   I only just surpassed last year's 14.9" with season-to-date of 16.1".  Throw a party.

    Thanks for sharing. I'm well below normal as well. I know that many here only care what MDT has recorded as their basis for for determining snowfall, but I'm WELL below what MDT has recorded this winter and quite frankly...to me, that's what matters. 

    • Like 1
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