Itstrainingtime

Mostly an icy mix here at work now...or as I like to call it "snowpack preservation precip"

The map totals continue to rise.  Love storms like this! 

Intensity has fallen off, and some hints of sleet here at work now, but I have nearly 6" on top of my car. Great, great storm! 

It's 25 degrees on the afternoon of 11/15...

On 11/14/2018 at 7:55 AM, maytownpawx said:

Random guess:

• LNS: 2.5"
• MDT: 3.1"
• Canderson/Sauss: 4"
• Blizzard of 93: 4.5"
• UNV: 6"
• MAG: 7"
• Williamsport: 7.5"

Ouch! I meant to multiply those numbers by 2.  

Just took my wife 75 minutes to go 6 miles. And that was on back roads, not a clogged major artery. 

Flake size is notably bigger once again here at work. 

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

M7.0” around 1pm

Your area down into Carrol and Frederick counties in MD are getting wamboozeled.

Heavy snow at work, flake size has decreased to the point that it looks like a mid-winter heavy snowstorm. Just gorgeous to look at...wondering how late I'll be here until it's safe to climb Mt. Chickies...

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY.  I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors.  Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition.  from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on.  Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges.

Maybe, but I dunno...a lot of places WAY south of us have that much already and they are still snowing.

Obs to our south in northern MD are making me giddy...

Roundtop cams showing snow there now.

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Saturatoin in full effect.....

the anticipation is killin me.

Of all days I'm in a 6 hour meeting. You can tell how tuned in I am...

Total confidence i start as sleet.

Even more confident I flip to snow.

No changes this AM...as snow & sleet will spread across LanCo during the mid-morning hours. A few hours of heavy precipitation will fall here btwn ~11am - 4pm...but what type of precip will it be? If it's mostly snow, then we'll be plowing...but I believe it may be more so sleet.

@Cashtown_Coop you got anything coming down yet? Radar has it on your doorstep...

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, this is a bonus indeed!

I enjoy our group & all of the personalities!

CTP bumped up the Warning snow amounts to 3-5 inches in the Harrisburg area & surrounding counties.

Lucky! I'm still at 1-3 down here in the lowlands. 

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Good to see snow breaking out down south in DC Area


.

And yet it's in the teens and raining at Snowshoe. 

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

It’s gonna be a good day. 

Enjoy everyone...no matter how much it piles up.

This is what we come together for. Here’s to a great winter of trackin and playin. 

Nut. 

Yes sir. I thought about days like this all freaking summer. Double bonus to have it come to us earlier than normal. Couldn't ask for a better group to have fun doing this with. I swear Blizz of 93 tracks for about 21 hours a day this time of year. 

2 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I still can't believe we went from humid summer-like nights to a full fledged winter storm in exactly one month lol

I was thinking about that last evening. It often seems like we go from winter to summer overnight, it's nice to have it flip the other way this time. 

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro- Kuchera ratio -snow map yet again at 0z looks great for CTP.

The last few runs of the HRRR look good as well! This is the latest which only takes us to 6pm Thursday. 

 

Do you ever sleep in the winter? 

I'm sitting at 31 here. Hoping precip arrives before 9am.

38 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This radar showing the wall of precip streaming north into our cold air dome with dew points in the teens has me fired up!

P.S. we get to do this for 4 more months !

 

That radar is juiced...if only it was going to be all snow...

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The EPS ensemble mean at 12z today was flat out impressive. This would normally be a nice map for a 10 day period in mid winter!

Here it is for the storm that is on our doorstep! Even if you cut the amounts in half, it would still be a great snow storm for the middle of November.

 

Everything I read today seems to point to a ripe winter pattern by the end of the month. Good times, or at least good tracking times are ahead.

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Today’s 12z looked pretty cold, lot of snow on the p-type products. 6+ for most everyone with less in SE PA towards philly. Also has a stripe of a foot plus right up the middle of PA (bit thinner than Euros) 

Thanks...I was reading in the forum to our south it was warmer. I should have looked for myself. 

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Where's GEM lining up?

I think it was kind of warm like the GFS. 

Interesting battle setting up between the Euro/Ukie against the rest. Up until about 2 years ago you could take that combo to the bank. Not so much last year...who will grab the early lead in winter 2018-19?...

8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

12z NAM has a MASSIVE dryslot for southeastern PA @ hour 36...

And I think that's why this is only an 8 hour storm.